Racing & Sports Canberra Preview - 7 October 2022
It’s been raining for days in Canberra and if they race the track will likely be bottomless. The rail is out 10m and will play to the outside. The key though will be heavy-track ability, fitness and good rides. There are some very competitive races at the back end of the programme and some tricky ones earlier where the race-day betting will be instructive.
Race 1 (1000m) CL1
Most have a winning chance. MIXED UP GREY (2) raced handy and was just beaten here first-up on a heavy track. Has been given 3-weeks to get over that and back 200m is likely to suit in a slog. CLYMENE (3) led them up and won a Maiden on the same day for Matt Dale. Has switched to the Danielle Seib barn and has a handy 1.5kg claim. She looks capable of taking the next step. SUPER KONTIKI (6) led and won the Maiden at Wagga 6-days ago on the heavy. Travers sticks with her instead of Mixed Up Grey. MIL CIENTO (1) is second-up and back in grade. Has the ability but a deep track is a query. It's been a while between drinks, but a fitter Mixed Up Grey gets his chance in a tricky affair.
Race 2 (1300m) Maiden
OFFSPRING (9) resumed with a solid placing building on the decent debut effort at Wagga in heavy conditions. Tipping she'll get through the ground and take beating with the extra fitness. MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN (5) found one better here first-up and it was a big effort from back in the field. He can go one better without surprising. I'M NOT LEAVING (1) ran favourite here first-up beaten a nose by Clymene. Didn't have the best of it and fitter will get his chance. ZOUZOULI (4) was good placing on the heavy at Wagga 6-days ago and is also in the mix.
BET: Offspring appeals most.
Race 3 (1600m) Cl1 SW
TOKEN CAPITALIST (5) brings a debut win and a near-miss both from the provincials. Led the latest in heavy conditions and will be further improved. No jockey declared but he's clearly the one to beat if they elect to run. STILL IN FASHION (4) didn't have the best of it here 13 days ago resuming for the new barn. Fitter and is a decent hope in similar conditions. LITTLE LANAI (7) won the Maiden here second-up on the heavy and impressed. He's still to find his peak and deserves plenty of consideration. MEDAL (2) has been threatening a win at the mile. Back to a sprint isn't likely to bother on a testing track and he should bet through it.
BET: Token Capitalist rates strongly. Still In Fashion the sub.
Race 4 (2000m) Bm 65
MIRACLE SPIN (2) was a big heavy-track winner at Newcastle on debut and has been good both runs this preparation. Was heavily bet over 1500m the latest and gives every indication he'll relish the middle-distance. Fitter and tipping he's the one to beat. ESSENTIAL SKY (8) and BASTIDA (3) both present fourth-up for a strong Sydney barn. The former brings a decent effort from much stronger at Randwick over the mile and on what we've seen he should get through the heavy conditions. Like Penza's booking. The latter comes back in trip off a wide run in a Newcastle 64 and has the winkers applied first time. LADY REDWOOD (6) was a big winner two-back at this trip on the Moruya heavy and that would give him a hope.
BET: Backing Miracle Spin to win.
Race 5 (1000m) Mdn SW
Tricky. SHRILL WHISTLE (2) disappointed in town on debut and was immediately spelled. He's looked the goods in both trials leading into this and was gelded after the most recent. Jury out heavy conditions but he's in one of the nation's top barns and expect him to handle it. NORTHULDRA (7) is also in a strong Sydney yard, but it hasn't declared a rider. Needed it first-up in town coming off a 571-day break. He was only beaten 2L in a Group 3 on debut so has the ability. Draws wide but must be respected if she turns up. THE IMPACT (3) also needed the first-up run and will be much more competitive today. RAIDER EIGHTYEIGHT (10) was heavily bet at Queanbeyan on debut and did a good job after a slow off. He can build on that. FINAL COMMENT (9), IMPENDING HARMONY (11) and NEWS FROM PARIS (6) are all debutants in good hands and have trialled well. Respect positive market moves.
BET: Shrill Whistle makes most appeal.
Race 6 (1400m) Cl2
ALLGEMEINE (4) raced a 9-10 favourite here three weeks ago (heavy track) and had no luck at all finding one better in stronger. Better for that and Penza goes on and will use the rail. The Dale barn is flying, and she can make amends. MEDIARO (1) resumes off Group and Listed races over longer trips. He has won fresh and at this distance and has warmed up with two trials. Goes in the heavy and would be winning if presented on-song. The betting will tell plenty. ZO PURRFECT (8) won the CL1 here on the heavy and it was an impressive effort over the mile. Gets in well this grade with the small claim and he'd be a player holding that form. SKY DIAMONDS (2) finds easier and has been busting to win. Back 200m will likely advantage in a slogging affair. VANCOUVER KHAN (3) did a good job placing here first-up and the 2kg claim is handy. Needs a good ride.
BET: Allgemeine is fit and has upside.
Race 7 (1000m) Open
A good contest. MORALIST (6) is hard fit and was just pipped by a good one the latest this grade on the heavy. Comes back 200m and rock hard fit should go close. DELACOUR (3) has been racing in town and had been threatening before a plainer effort at Canterbury not enjoying the best of it. Overall, the form stacks right up for this and respect the Gardiner barn at home. FANGELA (7) resumes for the Dryden barn and is sharp on the fresh side. Should manage the heavy track and has the handy 2kg claim. Is building a good record and keep a close eye on the betting with him. Ditto GOLDEN GORGE (10) who resumes for the hot Matt Dale yard with Penza a key jockey booking. A question mark on a deep surface but must be considered.
BET: Going with Moralist.
Race 8 (1400m) Open
Another good race. SHADDY (13) seeks the hat-trick off the heavy track win here at 65 level. He will use the low gate and has 5kg weight relief in this grade. Keeps improving and can go on with it. READY TO HUMBLE (3) made solid inroads in stronger at Rosehill off a trial win here. He's well-seasoned and winning rider Penza reunited is a decent push for his chances. Draws for a soft run and should go close in a tough affair. GIRLS ARE READY (9) came from the back just nudged out on a Moruya Open and peaks for this. A chance as well. DREAM RUNNER (1) is using this as a steppingstone to better and no knock on the first-up win here at this level. Gets more weight today and a cruel gate. UPPER HOUSE (6) has a 4kg claim and the stable can manage an upset.
BET: Sticking with Shaddy.
Race 9 (1200m) Bm60
PACKER (7) resumed at Goulburn in better grade just beaten. He gets in well with the 2kg claim and a heavy track won't bother. Fitter and hard to beat. GEMINIDS (12) just missed on resumption and then belted the Maiden here on a deep track heavily-bet. Races forward and can take the next step. MANILA THRILLER (11) has been threatening a win on heavy surfaces and Penza goes on today. Back 200m will suite and she may be best of the four Dryden acceptors. PACIFIC FORCE (1) and MISS LENORR (6) both resume for the Sydney barn. They both show promise but it's an ask fresh on a bottomless track. VAAROOM (14) resumes for Dryden and could be the smokey.
BET: Backing Packer.