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A debutant long-shot colt by 2016 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist can shock the hot favourite in the John McGrath Auto Group 2YO Black Opal Stakes over 1200m on Sunday.

Full Metal Jacket, a big-striding youngster from the Gary Portelli yard at Warwick Farm, should arrive at Thoroughbred Park with real intrigue, especially given he comes out of the same recent trial as long odds-on fancy and unbeaten colt Fully Lit.

That said, Full Metal Jacket was also accepted to run in the much stronger Group 2 Todman Stakes (1200m) at Randwick on Saturday, but given he was over 100/1 in early markets, surely connections take the option to head down the "Opal" freeway.

Yes, it would be first time at the races in Group company for Full Metal Jacket, and he did go up $21.00 in Black Opal betting, but there was something about his latest trial where he closed off strongly wider out in a blanket finish.

It was a genuine 800m hit-out for two-year-olds, clocked in 46.86 secs, with the last 600m in a slick 33.34 secs.

Finishing only a long neck from the winner, admittedly Full Metal Jacket was pushed out much harder than Fully Lit who cruised through the line under a hold, but the hot-pot always had a soft passage underneath.

It was certainly inviting the way Full Metal Jacket kept finding the line, and while he'll be forced back from a wide draw in the Black Opal, watch for a powerhouse final 300m on debut.

Of course, Fully Lit heads into the Black Opal a month between runs, and behind consecutive wins to launch his career over 1100m, firstly in a 2YO Hcp, and then dominant from just behind the speed in the Restricted Millenium.

Kept ticking over, it's hard to dispute his build-up and red-hot favouritism, and the Hellbent sprinting stock are going great guns at the moment.

Fully Lit drew ideally in gate three for the Waterhouse-Bott yard, and has every right to go off a hot fancy, with Full Metal Jacket jumping from barrier 11.

But there'll be another challenge to the favourite from the barrier alongside, Capitalist colt Amazing Eagle also having his third start in the Black Opal for the Ryan-Alexiou stable.

A fair debut effort in a strong 2YO race late last year, Amazing Eagle was given eight weeks off before returning via a trial, and a fast-finishing effort in the Black Opal Preview where he failed to run down the long-priced local winner by a neck.

He's a glaring improver, and drawn to get cover, I'll be surprised if he's not in the finish, carving out a slashing final 400m.

My Early BLACK OPAL Tips


2. Fully Lit

3. Amazing Eagle

4. Holmes A Court


*Speaking of progressive second-up patterns, still lightly raced metropolitan five-year-old Fawkner Park can lay down a big marker for the rest of autumn by claiming the Listed Canberra Cup over 2000m at good odds.

He steps up sharply in trip from a big closing effort over 1400m at Rosehill, but he's the type of galloper who can go up quickly in distance early in a prep.

Already a five time winner from only 12 starts, Fawkner Park has saluted over 2000m and 2400m against metro opposition, both times on firm going and under big weights.

At Thoroughbred Park, he drops right down to the Quality limit 54kg, with renowned off-speed jockey Jason Collett sticking like glue.

Factoring in trip, class and weight, Fawkner Park was well over the mark in early betting at $6.00 for Warwick Farm trainer Annabel Neasham who also has Redstone Well ($8.00) accepted to back up in eight days after failing badly at Randwick in a BM 88 Hcp over 2000m.

In what is one of the trickier and more open races on the program where punters could try at least half the field, two runners both third-up loom as the biggest dangers coming through the same formline.

Talented six-year-old Diamil ($6.00) was only moderate to the line in the deeper Listed Parramatta Cup over 1900m at Rosehill, while tough provincial eight-year-old Almania ($5.00) sat much closer in the run & was only beaten by a head.