Cracking Canberra Preview TAB Canberra Cup Day
TAB Canberra Cup Day
Monday, Mar 9, 2020
Gates Open from 11.30am
Track likely Soft 6 and Rail remaining at +3m so should be a genuine trend towards the middle as meeting goes on
*RACE 1 @ 1.25pm CANBERRA REX HOTEL HCP (1600m) - BM 65; Min Weight 54.5kg & apprentices can claim:
Tricky opener over the mile, with a couple of these also accepted to run on Sunday. Promising 3YO Warwick Farm gelding 5. ANTARCTIC OCEAN (Bjorn Baker/James McDonald) was very good second-up at Bathurst holding off a progressive type after being worked to reach the front from an outside gate. Ready for the mile now, and draws to either lead, or sit right behind.
MAIN DANGERS: Improving 3YO Randwick gelding 8. ABIDING only just clung on to win his maiden at this track, but that was first run in nearly 11 months, and will naturally improve. Down in weight, but might have to work a little from a wide draw to get across. Stablemate 3YO 4. SACRAMENTO may be preferred for Sunday, but careered away to win by more than six lengths first-up at Queanbeyan in first run this side of the Victorian border. This is obviously tougher, and not overly well in under 60kg.
Tempo: Moderate to Fair
My Betting Attack: ANTARCTIC OCEAN to Win
*RACE 2 @ 2.00pm SENPOS HCP (1300m) - BM 60; Min Weight 54kg & apprentices can claim:
Not a lot between most of these, so tactics and tempo will be crucial. Keen on local 4YO mare 7. IL PROFESSIONALE (Keith Dryden/Nash Rawiller) who has had two steady runs back from a spell when rock solid in the market. Blinkers go on at the right time, with senior metro jockey engaged.
MAIN DANGERS: Local 6YO mare 8. KATHAIRE (also accepted for Sunday) has mixed her form since a barnstorming Class 2 win at Wagga. Didn't have the best of luck in two straight Federals before strong late in similar company at Albury, and is hard fit. Home track gelding 2. NIECES AND NEPHEWS is progressive enough, and has won two from four this prep both times in Good going. Doesn't seem to let down as well on rain-affected ground, and from a tricky draw looks a risk. Local mare 5. AWAY SHE GOES resumes without a public trial, and best form generally comes a little deeper into the prep.
Tempo: Moderate to Good
My Betting Attack: IL PROFESSIONALE to Win
*RACE 3 CANBERRA RAIDERS - RAIDERS.COM.AU HCP (1400m) - Maiden; Min Weight 54kg & apprentices can claim:
Tough maiden to dissect with some debuting off varying trial form, and others either early or well into their prep. Local 5YO gelding 7. COSTA CHIN CHIN (Rob Potter/Richard Bensley) has done just about everything but win this prep finishing second three times in his last four from off the speed. Drawn nicely, and well in at the weights on preferred Soft ground, so it's time to break through.
MAIN DANGERS: We should get a strong lead with 4YO Goulburn mare 11. ROND DE JAMBE who took a lot of ground first-up here off Abiding who runs in the opener. Raced up to much longer staying trips in spring, and while has the class, be wary of being a little flatter second-up. Watch for good improvement from 4YO Canberra mare 5. FIRECRACKER who was okay on debut at Orange having not trialled since the middle of last year; while 3YO Warwick Farm gelding 3. UNRESTRICTED can also improve off an ordinary debut here drawn better, with senior Sydney rider aboard.
Tempo: Moderate to Good
My Betting Attack: COSTA CHIN CHIN to Win and TRIFECTA 7,11/3,5,7,11/3,5,7,11
*RACE 4 @ 3.10pm OPC IT HCP (1400m) - Class 1; Min Weight 54kg & apprentices can claim:
Competitive contest, with four clear chances. Loved the first-up run at Wagga in this grade from promising 4YO local mare 5. ROSY DAWN (Norm Gardner/Matthew Cahill) working home strongly from midfield. Made good progress in her first prep after winning her maiden by nearly four lengths, and draws to coil up off the speed and launch late.
MAIN DANGERS: Exciting local 3YO gelding 3. CAVALIER CHARLES is the immediate threat from the inside draw after leading all the way to win on debut at Wagga before ridden quieter from the back in a Class 2 at Moruya, and rocketing home late. Improving 3YO Hawkesbury gelding 2. BULLET STORM has had two runs back from a spell, chasing home Baracus last start who has since won again, and shrewd trainer has been careful where to place him; while Randwick filly and dominant fourth-up maiden winner 6. MISS TWILIGHT loves to roll forward, and looks well in at the weights.
Tempo: Fair to Good
My Betting Attack: ROSY DAWN to Win and Box TRIFECTA 2,3,5,6
*RACE 5 @ 3.50pm TAB LICKETY SPLIT (1000m) - Maiden; Set Weights & apprentices can claim):
Always a high pressure & exciting dash. Putting all the eggs in one new basket here with debutant Randwick filly 10. PHOENICIAN QUEEN (Hallowed Crown x Saltator by Testa Rossa for John Thompson/Nash Rawiller) who has had two controlled trials in smart company. Sire was a dual Group 1 winner and unbeaten on heavy tracks. Looks suited!
MAIN DANGERS: Local 4YO gelding 5. WILLANGIE hasn't started for more than a year, and draws the widest barrier, but Wagga trial was handy, and stable is good at producing them off a long break. Hard to place Warwick Farm 4YO 1. AT THE HELM who is still to run a place from four mixed runs, although seemingly performs better when taken off the speed. Will get plenty of speed to chase, but carting 59kg against some real speedsters could prove tough.
Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: PHOENICIAN QUEEN to Win
*RACE 6 @ 4.30pm XXXX GOLD CANBERRA GUINEAS (1400m) - Set Weights + Pens; 3YO's & apprentices cannot claim:
Good race, with several chances, yet hard to believe staying-type Randwick filly 8. FOXBOROUGH (John Sargent/Tom Sherry) could open up such a big price after her dominant Preview win here. Obviously taking on some smarter ones, but drops 4kg, and draws to park in a similar spot one-off around midfield. Went all the way to the Group 1 Victoria Oaks last prep, and while easily outclassed, few will be getting home stronger at the end of a mile.
MAIN DANGERS: Emerging high class Godolphin colt 1. KNICKPOINT is the obvious threat from a soft draw. Went under as an odds-on favourite resuming on the heavy at Warwick Farm, but showed his true ability sweeping home for an effortless win second-up at Canterbury. Advantaged under the set weight scale, and will be hard to hold out late. Progressive Godolphin gelding 5. PROMOTIONS resumed with a dominant maiden win at Kembla before a little anchored late in the heavy at Warwick Farm. A soft rating is probably his best surface, and draws to get a nice trail. Talented Randwick gelding 3. GONE BYE loves to roll forward, and has won two of his three starts in solid fashion up to BM 70 grade. Freshened for this short trip with a tidy 1000m trial, and looks over the odds; while Warwick Farm gelding 2. SAVOURY dug deep second-up in a BM 70 at Canterbury, and is unbeaten in soft going, but might be a query running out a strong mile.
Tempo: Fair to Good
My Betting Attack: FOXBOROUGH & GONE BYE both Each Way & TRIFECTA 1,3,8/1,2,3,5,8/1,2,3,5,8
*RACE 7 @ 5.15pm TAB LISTED CANBERRA CUP (2000m) - Quality; Min Weight 54kg & apprentices cannot claim.
Feature race of the day, and have been keen on tough Warwick Farm gelding 1. EASTENDER for some time. Prolific winning former Group 3 Hobart and Launceston Cup champ who rattled home late second-up off a long break to miss by a long head in the Listed Parramatta Cup. By-passed Listed grade at Randwick on Saturday to be saved for this.
MAIN DANGERS: High class 5YO Newcastle gelding and ex UK stayer 9. MUGATOO is the clear threat drawn the inside on the luxury 54kg limit. Has swept home from midfield to win first two starts in Australia up to BM 88 level, although won't want the surface too wet. Rosehill 4YO gelding 6. CINQUEDEA is building a handy strike rate, and was very good from off the speed landing the inaugural Canberra Mile. Will run out the trip no problem, just needs to find early cover from a wide draw. Smart 5YO local mare 11. MAID OF ORE should have gone close to winning the Canberra Mile second-up finding the line from a mile back despite a checkered run down the straight. Versatile mare who won over this trip in a metro BM 78 in spring, and will be driving home late.
Tempo: Moderate to Good
My Betting Attack: EASTENDER to Win and Box TRIFECTA 1,6,9,11
*RACE 8 @ 5.55pm NCG SERVICES HCP (1000m) - BM 65; Min Weight 54kg & apprentices can claim:
Back to the sprint course for an intriguing finish. Despite jumping back up to 60kg, 4YO Queanbeyan mare 2. GLAMOUR CAT (Joe Cleary/James McDonald) is the one to beat off his solid closing Highway run at Randwick. Previously was only beaten a head in BM 70 mares grade with more depth than this, and late in the day, three wide with some cover will do nicely.
MAIN DANGERS: Local 4YO gelding 3. MAJOR TIME is as honest as they come beaten no more than a half length in a string of close finishes, as well as a BM 60 win here late last year, before swamped late in a BM 87 Federal last start. Will give a sight, but weighted to his absolute best with 60kg. Another home track gelding 7. IMITATION GAME has powered home from well back to win his last two, and draws to do no work back on the inside, but more depth to this.
Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: GLAMOUR CAT to Win
**My BEST BETS:
R2 7. IL PROFESSIONALE* Expect: $4.75 - $4.85; My Early Rating: $3.10
R4 5. ROSY DAWN** Expect: $4.15 - $4.25; My Early Rating: $2.70
R7 1. EASTENDER** Expect: $4.85 - $5.00; My Early Rating: $3.15
R8 2. GLAMOUR CAT* Expect: $2.65 - $2.75; My Early Rating: $2.10
**My BEST VALUE:
R6 8. FOXBOROUGH** Expect: $9.50 - $10.00; My Early Rating: $4.95
R6 5. PROMOTIONS* Expect: $6.00 - $6.50; My Early Rating: $4.95
R6 3. GONE BYE* Expect: $10.00 - $12.00; My Early Rating: $6.40
*PAST CANBERRA CUP WINNERS:
2018: Almost Court
2017: Dark Eyes
2014: Jacquinot Bay
2013: Court Connection
2012: Fill The Page
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW: