Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans Friday 24 July
1st Race @ 12.10pm
*Track likely Soft 5 and Rail out 3m from 1000m to 380m, then True the remainder so on or just off the speed before trending wider
*RACE 1 @ 12.10pm PETER LANCKEN BENCHMARK 60 HCP (2000m) - Min Weight 55.5kg & apprentices can claim:
We kick off another strong card with a real battle of tactics and tempo for the stayers. Improving 4YO Warwick Farm mare 2. DUCHESS OF WINDSOR (Matthew Smith/Jay Ford; 59.5kg) can break a run of predominantly placings getting out to ideal distance fifth-up. Was run down leading in a CL2 at Goulburn last start, but better off ridden with a sit, and is bred to ultimately get over further.
*MAIN DANGERS: Hawkesbury 4YO 4. Little Arnie knocked up resuming over the mile in a handy CL2 at Kembla, and while he does boast a strong record at this track and trip, likely to need one more run; while expect an improved effort from Randwick 4YO 6. Prince Camelot who didn't finish off at Goulburn, back back in trip and down in weight from a better draw are all plusses.
Likely Tempo: Moderate
My Betting Attack: DUCHESS OF WINDSOR to Win
*RACE 2 @ 12.45 pm REZICAST MAIDEN PLATE (1300m) - Set Weights & apprentices can claim:
Keen on improving 3YO local gelding 5. JACK THE BRUMBY (Nick Olive/Brendan Ward; 59kg) getting back on firmer footing at his third start. Has beaten all but the winner in two starts so far, and fitter now with good early tactical speed, can come across and control the race.
*MAIN DANGERS: Randwick 3YO gelding 3. California August brings strong provincial and metro form here, with the winkers removed fourth-up. Only has to get over from a wide draw to be the clear threat. Former Victorian 3YO 4. Celestial Warrior resumes off a handy trial for his new local stable of Garry Kirkup who has tinkered heavily with the gear. Draws the inside, with senior rider booked. Include in exotics Randwick 3YO 7. Kowloon Treasure (Stratum x Gigas by Dubai Destination) who debuts from a good draw off two very solid wet track trials.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: JACK THE BRUMBY to Win and Trifecta 3,5/3,4,5,7/3,4,5,7
*RACE 3 @ 1.25pm A.C.T. INTERIORS MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Intriguing maiden sprint, with a few first starters, and plenty of chances. Warwick Farm 3YO filly and first starter 6. MUSTANG SUZY (Snitzel x Suzy Smart by Smart Strike for Matthew Smith/Scott Pollard; 56kg) has been a very consistent performer at the trials, and debuts in winkers for strong juvenile yard.
*MAIN DANGERS: With an edge in experience and race fitness after four runs this prep, consistent & rival Warwick Farm 3YO 3. No Doubt A Star is a clear threat from a soft draw. Wet track form in deeper races was mixed, but showed his preference for firmer footing attacking the line late at Muswellbrook. Big watch on local 2YO gelding 7. Fangela (The Factor x Angel Of Avalon by Tale Of The Cat) debuting for the Keith Dryden stable. Has trialled okay and bred to go quick; while local 4YO 1. Antonio held on well, resuming in the heavy at Wagga after being pressured up front, and has a handy second-up record, although draws the outside gate.
Likely Tempo: Good
My Betting Attack: MUSTANG SUZY to Win and Quinella 3 and 6
*RACE 4 @ 2.05pm BARRY WHYTE 2YO HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Weights raised 0.5kg & apprentices can claim:
Plenty of potential on show here. Really liked the recent trials of debutant 2YO colt 1. AWAKINO (Richard & Michael Freedman/Sam Clipperton; 57.5kg) behind a couple of extra smart youngsters, and he looks ready to go from a low draw.
*MAIN DANGERS: Plenty of them headed by home track 2YO Kiwi-bred gelding 4. Sir Finn (Ferlax x Herculaneum by Elusive City) on debut for the Baroness & Jones boys. Hasn't trialled recently, but was right behind Hot 'N' Hazy at the trials back in February, and that horse recently won a Goulburn trial by 14 lens, and goes around at Rosehill this Saturday. Progressive Queanbeyan 2YO 2. Propose A Toast landed a hefty betting move fourth-up in heavy ground at Wagga, but up in weight and drawn off the track. Expect sharp improvement third-up from 2YO Hawkesbury filly 3. Showtime Lady who will find this easier than her first two runs back.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: AWAKINO to Win
*RACE 5 @ 2.40pm SHOW PONY EVENTS CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights & apprentices can claim:
Very keen on talented US-bred 4YO Warwick Farm gelding 4. TAPICONIC (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Christian Reith; 59kg) dropping in grade and getting out to the mile. Should have nearly won a CL1 at Newcastle when didn't get much room before strong late in a deeper race at Hawkesbury, and then worked home okay in much tougher metro company. Will ease back from a wider draw, but well suited under the set weight scale, and can gather them in.
*MAIN DANGERS: Improving Randwick 3YO 5. Cosmic King chased home a good young sprinter resuming at Scone, and bred to run out a strong mile early in his prep. Rival Randwick 3YO filly 11. Oaksastar did her best work late second-up at Goulburn, and is looking for this distance now with the blinkers on. South Coast 4YO 2. Lord Desanimaux has knocked up trying to win this prep, placed in his last three. Stays at the mile, and will roll forward from a friendly draw, and again can give a good sight.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My Betting Attack: TAPICONIC to Win and Quinella 4 and 5
*RACE 6 @ 3.15pm YOUR EVENT SOLUTION CLASS 1 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Local 3YO filly 4. RARE GEM (Matthew Dale/Jay Ford; 55.5kg) has superior upside in this field, and only needs to find cover from a wide gate to be the one to beat. Got too far back here in a stronger CL1 two runs back before just missing in the heavy at Wagga. Ready to win again.
*MAIN DANGERS: Watch the market on capable Albury 3YO 1. High Advice who returns off a 10 week freshen-up without a public trial, but has plenty of ability and leading Riverina jockey makes the trip up to ride. Randwick filly 2. Chelsea Reign has far more ability than her modest record suggests, and was under two lengths from smart youngster Fenech third-up in a deeper race at Kembla.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: RARE GEM to Win
*RACE 7 @ 3.55pm PAUL MILLER TAB BENCHMARK 70 FEDERAL (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Another strong edition of the Federal, with typically plenty of hopes. Big fan of lightly raced 4YO local mare 9. FLORA BEL (Norm Gardner/Jeff Penza; 56.5kg) who hit the line hard from well back here before having little or no luck getting home in a stronger Highway at Randwick. Senior rider going on is a big pointer.
*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive 5YO mare 1. Terra Reign was a dominant BM 65 winner here two runs back before close-up this grade at Kembla after a freshen-up when easy in betting. Back up in weight, but draws to get a soft run just off the speed, and will be strong late. Queanbeyan mare 2. Katie Did It can mix her form, but her best would put her in the finish. Rises in grade, but has a sound record at the track. Local 7YO 3. Prince Jacko rarely puts in a bad one, and draws to sit right behind a decent speed; while include both 5YO stablemate mare 6. Sweet Knuckle who draws well, generally produces at home, and will appreciate getting back on firmer footing; and Albury 6YO 8. Supplyzing who hasn't started for nine months, but has a 50 per cent winning strike rate from four starts, and bolted in a recent heavy track trial at Wagga..
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: FLORA BEL to Win and First Four 1,9/1,2,3,6,9/1,2,3,6,9/1,2,3,6,8,9
*RACE 8 @ 4.35pm AUSTRALIAN TEMPORARY STRUCTURES BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
We close the card with a tough and even sprint. Smart 3YO Canberra filly 6. SHORES OF AVALON (Keith Dryden/Ms Ellen Hennessy a2kg; 56.5kg) resumes without an official trial, and draws wide, but has superior early speed to get across and control the race. Has a 50 per cent winning strike, and looms as the one to beat.
*MAIN DANGERS: 4YO Albury gelding 5. Galaxy Force has been off the scene for 11 months, but can return with a bang in a suitable race. Showed real promise to quickly place in a Highway last year before being forced out, but looked forward in a recent trial, and stable will be eying off a metropolitan start if he wins this. Another one from the Dryden yard, 5YO mare 1. Eve's Miss scraped home in a BM 65 here two runs back before not disgraced in a much stronger BM 76 on the Kensington track. Shoots right back up in the weights, but draws to get a cosy run a few lengths off the speed. Warwick Farm 4YO mare 8. Dizzy Miss Lizzy has been close-up over this trip in her last couple, and draws to get a sweet trail behind the speed. Flew home to just miss in a BM 65 at only previous run at this track.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: SHORES OF AVALON to Win and Quinella 5 & 6
**My BEST BETS:
R1 2. DUCHESS OF WINDSOR***
R4 1. AWAKINO**
R5 4. TAPICONIC**
**My BEST VALUE:
R7 9. FLORA BEL**
R8 6. SHORES OF AVALON*
**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW: