Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 8 April 2022

*1st Race @ 12.50pm

*Track likely Soft 6/7 & Rail True:

 

*RACE 1 @ 12.50pm DR MAKS PEST CONTROL BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 57kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 1. KNICKPOINT (Richard Litt/Jack Martin; 62.5kg & barrier 9) - Good competitive sprint for this grade to get us underway on a track that is likely to slip well back into Soft range, potentially Heavy, with rain forecast. Like this progressive metropolitan 5YO who peaks third-up coming back significantly in grade. Jumps up sharply in weight, but ideally given six weeks between runs for this little drop back in distance. Attacked the line late in BM 72 company at Canterbury last start, and will relish the bigger track here. Won't want it much worse than Soft 6, but first use of the surface over the shorter course is a big plus

 

*MAIN DANGERS: 2. *Gorush Lightning; 3. **Distillate; 5. *All Formidable; 6. **Crucial Witness; 7. *Delightful Dream

 

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My Bet Plan: KNICKPOINT to WIN & First Four: 1,3,6/1,2,3,5,6,7/1,2,3,5,6,7/1,2,3,5,6,7

 

*RACE 2 @ 1.25pm VIVID CHARTERED ACCOUNTANTS CLASS 2 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 3. BEAU ROCK (Gratz "Twinkle Toes" Vella/Ms Ellen Hennessy; 58kg & barrier 8) - Plenty of confidence this tough & locally-trained 4YO can go back-to-back staying at the weight and distance. Steps up a notch in grade, and is yet to prove himself on rain-affected ground; but is bred to handle it being by Magnus out of a Lion Heart mare. Has good tactical speed, and from the wider gate here can come across & park just off the pace, and produce that customary acceleration from the 400m

 

*MAIN DANGERS: 2. **Devine Miss; 4. *Shaddy; 5. *Easy Rosie 6. *Almost Persuaded

 

Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid

My Bet Plan: BEAU ROCK Each Way & Quinella: 2 and 3

 

*RACE 3 @ 2.05pm PACIFIC FACILITIES MAINTENANCE MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 6. CARRINGTON FALLS (Rob Potter/Ms Kayla Nisbet; 56.5kg & barrier 5) - Tricky maiden here in the going, with a few debutants on show, but this home track filly by Sheer Talent can snatch the prize at big odds at her second start. Made up plenty of late ground from last on debut at Wellington two weeks ago when well backed, and with that experience and returning home to the much bigger and less turning track, she is well placed. Sire was a Group 3 winner at Flemington, and placed in the Group 1 Australian Guineas over the mile at his final start

 

*MAIN DANGERS: 2. *Bon Frankie; 5. **Pyramid Of Fire 7. **Essonne; 8. *Ice On Fire

 

Likely Tempo: Good

My Bet Plan: CARRINGTON FALLS Each Way & Box Exacta: 5,6,7

 

*RACE 4 @ 2.40pm GRADY'S TRANSPORT BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 3. MERCURY (Richard Litt/Jack Martin; 60kg & barrier 4) - Testing race, with most of the fancies not having great exposed wet track form. No question this Warwick Farm-based 5YO should have a much better record than his two wins from 35 starts, but has been placed a further 12 times, often in stronger company with little or no luck. Has been up for a while, but produced an eye-catching closing run behind in-form Fourmadec just 10 days ago, and has shown enough in soft ground to suggest he'll adapt to any abrupt downgrades. Can park around midfield with a trail and finish best

 

*MAIN DANGERS: 4. **Budderoo Blitz; 6. **We All Agree; 1. *Sizzleonthebridge

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Bet Plan: MERCURY Each Way & Box Exacta 3,4,6

 

*RACE 5 @ 3.15pm TED FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 3. PRETTY WOMAN (Matthew Dale/Nick Heywood; 61.5kg & barrier 4) - Another strong feature Federal sprint, and it shapes well for this talented and still lightly raced home track filly who can take her smart winning record to better than 50 percent 3rd-up at just her seventh start. Was a highly touted 2YO before having plenty of time off, then returned with a fighting win in heavy ground at Goulburn before a good thing licked at home in similar grade when she blew the start before making up plenty of late ground through traffic. Draws to get a nice trail off speed, and only needs to jump with them over this trip and can be too classy in the run home

 

*MAIN DANGERS: 1. *Oamanikka; 2. **Fangela; 4. *Hezredhot

 

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My Bet Plan: PRETTY WOMAN to WIN & Quinella: 2 and 3

 

*RACE 6 @ 3.55pm FORE GROUP 3YO & UP CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 3. COLOUR SERGEANT (Matthew Smith/Blake Spriggs; 59kg & barrier 4)  - Very keen on this lightly raced metropolitan 4YO import having only his second run Down Under off a 10 month break, and stepping up to a suitable mile journey at set weights. Worked home fresh when solid in betting in a handy provincial Class 1, and is bred to get to 2000m and beyond being by top notch Group 1 Royal Ascot winner Kingman. Looks well treated at the weights in this grade, and thrives on rain-affected ground

 

*MAIN DANGERS: 4. *Jack Duggan; 8. *Cullier

 

Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable

My Bet Plan: COLOUR SERGEANT to WIN

 

*RACE 7 @ 4.35pm EXACT ELECTRICAL CLASS 1 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 2. OTTILIE (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Brodie Loy; 59.5kg & barrier 12) - This lightly raced 3YO Randwick filly was strong from barrier to box resuming in a handy Maiden field at Hawkesbury, careering away from the furlong in relative good time for a Soft 7 surface. Came into that race off two forward trials, and can progressive over 200m further here carrying 1kg more. Will roll across from the wide draw and either lead or sit just off

 

*MAIN DANGERS: 3. *Calmer Karma; 9. *Clever Choice

 

Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid

My Bet Plan: OTTILIE to WIN

 

*RACE 8 @ 5.10pm RELAXED LIVING LANDSCAPES MAIDEN PLATE (1300m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 3. GWAN SO (Annabel Neasham/Brodie Loy; 58.5kg & barrier 5) - This improving 3YO colt and import is ready to peak now third-up in Australia coming back from a deeper provincial race in heavy ground when he was swamped in the worst part of the track. Better suited this company & back 100m in trip

 

*MAIN DANGERS: 2. *Bionic; 9. *Poseidon Jewel

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Bet Plan: GWAN SO to WIN

 

**My BEST EARLY BETS:

 

R5 3. PRETTY WOMAN** Expect: $4.85 - $5.00; My Early Rating: $2.65

R6 3. COLOUR SERGEANT** Expect: $2.85 - $3.25; My Early Rating: $2.20

 

**My BEST EARLY VALUE:

 

R2 3. BEAU ROCK** Expect: $7.50 - $8.50; My Early Rating: $4.00

R3 6. CARRINGTON FALLS* Expect: $15.00 - $19.00; My Early Rating: $7.00

 

**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:

 

R4: Box Exacta 3,4,6