Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 7 October 2022
*1st Race @ 1.35pm
*Track likely Heavy 10 & Rail out 10m (7m last meeting):
*RACE 1 @ 1.35pm KENNARDS HIRE JACK THOMAS CLASS 1 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. MIL CIENTO (Joseph Ible/Ms Louise Day; 58kg & barrier 3) -We start with everything crossed here of course on a rain-hit very heavy surface, and the rail pushed further out. In an opener of few chances, this provincial 4YO by Super One is the most progressive runner in the race, and is bred to get through heavy conditions. Drops in grade here 2nd-up after working home from a long way back in superior provincial company, and importantly draws to get cover early in the race sitting much closer in the smaller field
DANGERS: 2. *Mixed Up Grey; 3. **Clymene
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: MIL CIENTO to WIN & Quinella: 1 and 3
*RACE 2 @ 2.10pm CARBINE CLUB OF THE ACT MAIDEN HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. I'M NOT LEAVING (Rob Potter/Nick Heywood; 59.5kg & barrier 4) -Tough sprint here in these conditions, with several chances. Keen on this lightly raced home track 4YO by Trust In A Gust who was terrific 1st-up here on a Heavy 10 when tracking the speed, then losing valuable ground early in the straight before picking up late to just miss. Will hold that form, destined to succeed over further, and a far superior rider takes over
DANGERS: 4. *Zouzouli; 5. *Mammoth Mountain; 9. *Offspring
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: I'M NOT LEAVING to WIN & Box Trifecta: 1,4,5,9
*RACE 3 @ 2.45pm ONECALL STEEL & FORM CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. TOKEN CAPITALIST (Annabel Neasham/Shaun Guymer; 57.5kg & barrier 5) -Cant go past this emerging Capitalist 3YO from a leading metropolitan yard, and steps out to the mile at his third start. Was a dominant debut winner at the provincials in soft ground after tracking the speed before only being run down late in a CL1 with a little more depth than this. Looks well treated at the weights, and the middle gate gives the rider options whether to tuck in, or scout wider out if the inside chops up
DANGERS: 4. *Still In Fashion; 7. *Little Lanai
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: TOKEN CAPITALIST to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 3.25pm RISK MANAGEMENT ESSENTIALS CAMARENA 3YO & UP BENCHMARK 65 HCP (2000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 8. ESSENTIAL SKY (John Sargeant/Jeff Penza; 57.5kg & barrier 3) -Good quality battle for this grade over the longer trip, and it stacks up well for this progressive 5YO metropolitan mare dropping in class 4th-up. Went home best to win a weaker graded race on the South Coast 1st-up before twice tackling much deeper BM 72 Midway company, both times working through the line nicely from well off the speed. Primed for the longer journey now being by Reliable Man and out of a Galileo mare, and right at home on heavy tracks. Was due to go around at Thursday's washed out Gosford meeting
DANGERS: 2. *Miracle Spin; 3. *Bastida; 6. *Lady Redwood
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: ESSENTIAL SKY to WIN
*RACE 5 @ 4.05pm CIVIUM PROPERTY GROUP MAIDEN PLATE (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. NEWS FROM PARIS (Matthew Smith/Blaike Spriggs; 57kg & barrier 5) -Very testing maiden sprint, with most of the better chances drawn wide apart. Like the value about this 4YO metropolitan mare by renowned wet track sire Dane Shadow who debuts for a shrewd stable behind 2 progressive trials in soft ground. Has been given plenty of time since her first trial more than a year ago, and this shapes as a nice starting point. Has run her last 600m splits in good time across those 2 trials last month, and also has the pattern option of a middle barrier
DANGERS: 2. *Shrill Whistle; 3. **The Impact; 7. **Northuldra; 10. *Raider Eightyeight
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: NEWS FROM PARIS Each Way & Trifecta: 3,6,7/2,3,6,7,10/2,3,6,7,10
*RACE 6 @ 4.40pm NEW ZEALAND BLOODSTOCK CLASS 2 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. VANCOUVER KHAN (Greg Hickman/Anna Roper a2kg; 58kg & barrier 12) -Keen on this progressive and talented metropolitan 4YO by Golden Slipper winner Vancouver 2nd-up. Won 2 straight convincingly in the country on wet tracks in autumn before an even effort in tougher provincial BM 64 grade. Came off a spell and 2 trials to hit the line hard from well back here a fortnight ago in very heavy ground, and being drawn to stay well off the fence, he can produce a dominant final 400m in this company
DANGERS: 1. *Mediaro; 2. *Sky Diamonds; 4. *Allgemeine; 5. *In De Sun Iwilcome
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: VANCOUVER KHAN to WIN
*RACE 7 @ 5.15pm SKY RACING RACE CALLERS CUP OPEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 7. FANGELA (Keith Dryden/Ms Molly Bourke a2kg; 55kg & barrier 9) -Ultra tough sprint in this going, and naturally there's a stack of chances. Got plenty of time for this home track 5YO by The Factor who resumes off an 18-week break. Took great strides last prep, surging late to win a BM 65 here, then just missing in consecutive BM 70 races before saluting again when charging home from midfield in a BM 74 at Wagga. Building a nice record, and bred to handle the conditions with a 2kg claim, he can sit off the fence a few lengths back, and produce that sustained finish. Over the odds
DANGERS: 6. **Moralist; 9. *Blitzar; 10. **Golden Gorge
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: FANGELA Each Way & Box Exacta: 6,7,10
*RACE 8 @ 6.00pm TAB FEDERAL TONY CAMPBELL MEMORIAL CUP OPEN HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 9. GIRLS ARE READY (Joe Cleary/Ms Jess Taylor; 55kg & barrier 7 -Good quality feature race of the meeting is also an open affair, but nothing shapes better at the value than this tough and hard-finishing 6YO who has a very handy record at the track and distance. Has been given 7 weeks since powering home from a mile back to miss narrowly in a feature South Coast Cup run on heavy ground and carrying 59kg. Races best when runs are spaced, drops down 4kg for this assignment, and draws to find cover back in the pack. Incredibly four of her five career wins from 40 starts have come on heavy tracks, and she only needs a clear look at them here from the 350m
DANGERS: 1. *Dream Runner; 3. *Ready To Humble; 4. *Mad As Zariz; 13. *Shaddy
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: GIRLS ARE READY Each Way
*RACE 9 @ 6.40pm HEFFERNAN LENDING SOLUTIONS BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim
TOP SELECTION: 7. PACKER (Greg Hickman/Ms Anna Roper a2kg; 57.5kg & barrier 9) -We close with another competitive sprint, and likely very wide market. Keen on this lightly raced metropolitan 4YO by Written Tycoon who did his best work late, resuming in a handy country BM 66 off a 19-week spell. Normally holds his form into the next run, and the weight increase for coming back in class has been off-set by a 2kg claimer being booked. Showed a real ability to settle back and attack the line last prep, and his best form is clearly on rain-affected ground
DANGERS: 1. *Pacific Force; 6. *Miss Lenorr; 11. *Manilla Thriller; 12. *Geminids
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: PACKER to WIN
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R3 5. TOKEN CAPITALIST** Expect: $2.15 - $2.25; My Early Rating: $1.80
R4 8. ESSENTIAL SKY** Expect: $3.25 - $3.40; My Early Rating: $2.25
R9 7. PACKER* Expect: $5.50 - $6.50; My Early Rating: $3.92
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R7 7. FANGELA** Expect: $6.50 - $7.00; My Early Rating: $4.00
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R5: Trifecta: 3,6,7/2,3,6,7,10/2,3,6,7,10
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail