Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans
******CRACKING CANBERRA PREVIEW******
with NEIL EVANS
SUNDAY Nov 24, 2024
@ Thoroughbred Park
AFFINITY ELECTRICAL
CANBERRA COMMUNITY
CHEST RACE DAY
*1st Race @ 1.25pm
*Track Good 4 & Rail out +3m:
*RACE 1 @ 1.25pm CARBINE CLUB OF THE ACT CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. TAUMATA (Tim Donnelly/Mathew Cahill;59kg & barrier 3) -we start the big day with a tactical affair for the lower class improvers over a staying trip; and keen to fly out of the blocks aboard this still lightly raced & improving 5YO by Japanese sire Satono Aladdin getting out to his best trip 2nd-up. Was competitive through 4 runs last prep, including a smart off-speed win in similar company at Wagga; then doing his best work late under a big weight on the Riverside track there before spelling. Made up late ground when resuming over the mile at Albury; and this shapes as the right follow-up journey where he can park a little closer to the speed. The dryer the track the better served he is
DANGERS: 1. **Divine Conclusion; 2. *Marks Icon; 5. *Ghaznavi; 7. *Telecom
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: TAUMATA to WIN & Trifecta: 1,3/1,2,3,5,7/1,2,3,5,7
*RACE 2 @ 2.00pm ONECALL STEEL & FORM CLASS 1 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. PERIGEAN (Danielle Seib/Pierre Boudvillain; 60kg & barrier 3) -right back to the sprint trip for a similar class of galloper; & there's good value around this progressive ex-Brisbane 4YO by high class sprint sire Extreme Choice having his first run for the new stable off a 16 week break. Has to beat a very short-priced favourite, but comes to hand quickly in the prep and has tactical speed. Given an easy time in a recent Rosehill trial, drawn to get the right trail right behind the speed, and key gear changes are in play, including blinkers coming off
DANGERS: 1. ***Zealously; 2. *Onigiri
Likely Tempo: Good
My BET PLAN: PERIGEAN Each Way; Quinella: 1 & 3; Trifecta: 1,3/1,3/1,2,3
*RACE 3 @ 2.35pm EGROUP MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 56.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 7. INVINCIBLE MADISON (Peter Snowden/Andrew Adkins; 57kg & barrier 3) -staying at the flying distance for the maidens here; and all aboard this lightly raced & nicely bred 3YO filly by prolific I Am Invincible who is well placed to strike 1st-up behind 2 progressive trials. Has been a slow work in progress having raced only once since debuting in the Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes at Randwick as a 2YO in spring last year. Finally looks to have turned the corner judging by the way she ran through the line in the most recent trial on the Kensington track; and she reloads this time without the winkers and from a handy trailing draw
DANGERS: 1. *Shaft Attack; 3. *Moochi Starlight; 5. *Highwire Flyer
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: INVINCIBLE MADISON to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 3.10pm PFD FOOD SERVICES MAIDEN PLATE (1400m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. LOUISBURGH (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald/Robbie Downey; 57.5kg & barrier 4) -the maidens again over 400m further at set weights; and this emerging and gelded metropolitan 3YO by Group 1 winner Zoustar can return with a bang for only his 2nd start behind 2 solid trials up to 1050m. Was only even through the line on heavy ground back in early June before being spelled. Given plenty of time and reportedly working well either side of 2 forward trials; he's been fitted to run this trip out fresh; and drawn to get a trail off the fence. Headed for much better races
DANGERS: 3. *California Blues; 12. *More Than Bubbles
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: LOUISBURGH to WIN
*RACE 5 @ 3.45pm SKY RACING RACE CALLERS CUP BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. ICEBREAKER (Matthew Smith/Louise Day; 56.5kg & barrier 8) -competitive & tactical battle here over the mile; but emerging clear on top is this progressive metropolitan 4YO by Group 1 winner Pariah shooting for consecutive wins 2nd-up in the prep. Held his own in some handy provincial company last campaign after a dominant maiden win at Wyong; then returned off a 22 week spell and 2 trials with a fast-finishing CL1 win here 19 days ago. This is naturally tougher, but he gets a nice 2.5kg weight drop; and bred to get further being out of a US mare by Unbridled's Song
DANGERS: 3. *Final Reset; 4. **Ronny Rock Art; 7. *Les Goh; 8. **Miss Ghent
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My BET PLAN: ICEBREAKER to WIN & Box Exacta: 4,5,8
*RACE 6 @ 4.27pm CANBERRA COMMUNITY CHEST QUALITY HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 54kg; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. CHORLTON LANE (Ciaron Maher/Ashley Morgan; 59.5kg & barrier 14) -now for the feature battle at quality conditions; and in a strong field with several chances; keen on this highly capable, if at times frustrating, 5YO by Irish sire Mehmas slipping back to his best distance well into the prep & 19 days between runs. Came off a short break to hit the line late into a place in the Big Dance Wild Card at Randwick; before being ridden closer in a BM 88 at that track on Melbourne Cup day and ambling up to win past the furlong until just faltering late. Will likely be forced a fair way back from the wider gate again; but gets a little class drop at the right time; loves drying ground; and ridden quietly can be saved up for a superior surge over the final 350m
DANGERS: 4. *Super Helpful; 5. **Battleton; 6. *Elettrica; 7. *I'mintowin; 10. *Bianco Vilano
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: CHORLTON LANE to WIN & First Four: 1,5/1,4,5,6,7,10/1,4,5,6,7,10/1,4,5,6,7,10
*RACE 7 @ 5.02pm AFFINITY ELECTRICAL TECHNOLOGIES SINGLE GAZE FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 75 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. SUNCHYME (Keith Dryden/TBA; 58kg & barrier 8) -the main support race also brings together a very handy field; but settled clearly on this progressive 5YO home track mare by Group 1 winner Zoustar who is primed to score 3rd-up for a 4th career win at her 14th start. Worked home nicely just behind the placegetters when resuming in a deep BM 64 at Hawkesbury before should have won a CL3 Highway at Randwick at big odds when held up for a long way in the straight before diving through late to only be beaten by a neck. Looks well placed here in Fillies & Mares company; settling back off a solid speed; then brought to the outside at the top of the lane
DANGERS: 1. *Sisters Pick; 2. **Toes In The Water; 7. *Mighty Myrtle
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: SUNCHYME to WIN and Quinella: 2 & 5
*RACE 8 @ 5.35pm TAB FEDERAL TONY CAMPBELL MEMORIAL CUP BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. FIFTY FIVE MUSTANG (Luke Pepper/Billy Owen; 60.5kg & barrier 2) -we cap the big day with another even contest for the restricted sprinters; but confident this locally-trained 5YO by Star Witness can peak 2nd-up over a bit further, with winkers replacing blinkers. Was right in the money last prep, including a dominant maiden win at Muswellbrook; then missing narrowly in a strong BM 58 at Dubbo before spelling. Returned off a 22 week break with a fast-finishing narrow defeat in a CL1 at Albury 16 days ago as a heavily backed favorite. Drawn to get a lovely run just off the speed with cover; and scratched from a very winnable race at Albury on Thursday to be saved for this is a further strong pointer
DANGERS: 1. *Mooshaka; 3. *Mountaun Chatter; 9. **Brazen Crime
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: FIFTY FIVE MUSTANG to WIN & Quinella: 5 & 9
**My BEST BETS:
R3 7. INVINCIBLE MADISON** Approx Market: $2.50 - $2.75; My Rating: $1.90
R4 4. LOUISBURGH** Approx: $2.45 - $2.60; My Rating: $1.85
**My BEST VALUE:
R8 5. FIFTY FIVE MUSTANG** Approx Market: $3.75 - $4.00; My Rating: $2.28
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R5: Box EXACTA: 4,5,8
R8: QUINELLA: 5 & 9
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail