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Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans

1st Race @ 12.30pm

*Track likely Soft 5 and Rail out 6m so on or just off the speed early before trending wider

 

*RACE 1 @ 12.30pm XXXX GOLD PLATE (2000m) - Class 1; Set Weights & apprentices can claim:

 

We kick off another big day with a battle of tactics and tempo over the staying journey. Keen on South Coast 4YO gelding 2. LORD DESANIMAUX (Terry Robinson/Blaike McDougall; 59kg) who is much better than his modest record suggests. Was beaten by a potentially smart one here last start when hitting the line over a mile, and rise to this trip fifth-up is a big plus.

 

MAIN DANGERS: Improving Warwick Farm 4YO mare 6. Dream Maiden comes out of that same race as the top selection when only fair to the line, but that was third-up from a lengthy break, and more ground here is also a boost. Liked the way Queanbeyan 4YO gelding 5. Street Cred worked home from a long way back second-up, and while this is a little tougher, he looks well placed again.

 

Likely Tempo: Moderate to fair

My Betting Attack: LORD DESANIMAUX to Win

 

*RACE 2 @1.05pm HYGAIN HCP (1400m) - Maiden; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:

 

Back in trip for the maidens, and super keen on 2YO Warwick Farm filly 6. BARGING TESS (David Pfieffer/Jay Ford; 56kg) who fought on hard after leading on debut here when well backed. Trainer has applied the winkers, and little depth in this race.

 

MAIN DANGERS: Expect improvement second-up from 3YO Randwick filly 2. Bizou who didn't shirk the task first-up at Goulburn, and carries 1kg less, with a stronger rider going on. Goulburn 3YO filly and former Victorian 4. Poliziotta can also improve second-up off a modest resumption at home from the inside draw. Big watch on local 3YO filly 5. Rebel Lady resuming off a handy trial. Finished off okay on debut at Goulburn last spring at huge odds, and will be further educated here.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: BARGING TESS to Win

 

*RACE 3 @1.40pm PEGASUS RIDING FOR THE DISABLED PLATE (1200m) - Maiden; Set Weights & apprentices can claim:

 

Bigger field at set weights, and a two-horse war looms. Big fan of 3YO Goulburn filly 7. EARP (Kurt Goldman/Ms Winona Costin; 57kg) who is well placed second-up getting out to this trip. Finished hard from well back resuming here, and while she'll be forced to go well back from the gate again, this looks ideal.

 

MAIN DANGERS: Promising 3YO Hawkesbury gelding 3. Fenech only has to reproduce his debut run at Wyong when rock solid in the market to be in the finish, and a clear threat. Nicely bred, and will park just off the speed. Watch the betting on debutant 3YO local gelding 4. Jack The Brumby (Equiano x Transcending by Invincible Spirit) from the Nick Olive yard who bolted in a recent trial. Rival home track 4YO gelding 2. Farage has been up for a while, but continues to improve hitting the line nicely at the Sapphire Coast. Will drift back from the draw and be strong late.

 

Likely Tempo: Good

My Betting Attack EARP to Win and Quinella: 3 and 7

 

*RACE 4 @ 2.15pm JOHN MCGRATH AUTO GROUP HCP (1300m) - BM 60; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:

 

Good competitive and open race. This looks an ideal trip second-up for 4YO local mare 9. GIOCOSO (Keith Dryden/Blaike McDougall; 55.5kg) despite her best form so far coming further into a prep. Did her best work late resuming in similar grade here, and her CL1 win over a mile just before Xmas beating handy mare Lady Kirkham is testament to what she can do.

 

MAIN DANGERS: Talented 4YO Queanbeyan mare 1. Katie Did It will carry only 1kg more after the claim than her dominant all-the-way win here second-up. Boasts a 33 per cent winning strike from only 15 starts, and unbeaten in soft ground, but regular rider has been replaced. If 3YO Goulburn gelding 6. Highly Decorated can get over okay from the wide gate, he'll be strong to the line. Beat a smart maiden field at Scone two runs back before swamped late in a CL1 at home. Resuming 3YO Rosehill staying type 4. Judicator normally comes to hand early in the prep, and has had a quiet trial. Will need everything to go right, though, carting this weight fresh from a wide barrier. Home track 4YO gelding 5. Eurosay should also be included first-up, despite no public trial. Has sound fresh form, and drawn to get a useful trail back in the field.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My Betting Attack: GIOCOSO Each Way & Trifecta: 1,6,9/1,4,5,6,9/1,4,5,6,9

 

*RACE 5 @2.55pm TAB LONG MAY WE PLAY HCP (1600m) - BM 65; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:

 

Up in grade and out to the mile in what is an open and terrific betting race. Despite being drawn right off the track, keen on progressive 3YO Warwick Farm filly 12. KIMMYLEE (Clare Cunningham/Ms Alysha Collett; 55kg) fourth-up. Found the line okay in two runs here before having little room or luck when it counted last start at Hawkesbury. Can sit back off a good tempo and pounce late.

 

MAIN DANGERS: Capable 5YO home track mare 6. Rosebank is much more effective when ridden off the speed, and suited coming back in distance. Powered away to win a weaker race three runs back before working home in a BM 70 here. Was taken to the front last start, and didn't see out the 2000m. Watch for big improvement from 4YO Warwick Farm mare 1. Renalot who has been outclassed in his last couple in stronger metro company, but despite the big weight, will find this more to her liking from a good trailing draw. Kembla 4YO mare 10.Collectively should be right at her peak coming off a good closing effort in a BM 64 at Hawkesbury. Consistent local 4YO gelding 8. Nieces And Nephews has only missed a place once in his last five, and that was on a Heavy 9, but another one drawn wide, and a query first time over this distance.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: KIMMYLEE to Win and Trifecta: 1,6,12/1,6,10,12/1,6,8,10,12

 

*RACE 6 @ 3.35pm TAB FEDERAL (1000m) - BM 70 Hcp; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:

 

Now the wide open feature race of the day over the short course, and there'll be pressure all the way. Like 3YO home track filly 9. CALESCENT (Matthew Dale/Ms Henni Ede a3kg; 56kg) who is right at her peak third-up over pet trip. Swept home for a dominant BM 66 win at Corowa, and well in at the weights after the rider's full claim.

 

MAIN DANGERS: Smart 4YO Queanbeyan mare 2. Kiss My Swiss resumes without an official trial, but has an outstanding fresh record. Given a hefty first-up weight even after the claim, but as long she gets across okay from a wider draw, will be right there. Lightly raced local 6YO 5. Polar Star is a tough sprinter with a sound record here, and can carry weight. Finished hard to just miss in a BM 70 at the provincials last start. Local 7YO gelding 8. Prince Jacko is nearly always competitive over this trip at home. Steps up in quality, but leading rider goes on. Moruya 6YO gelding 3. Hay Bale also returns without a public trial, and normally comes to hand fairly quickly, but tough ask here carting 61kg from a wide draw.

 

Likely Tempo: Strong

My Betting Attack: CALESCENT to Win and Quinella: 2 and 9

 

*RACE 7 @ 4.10pm AFFINITY CONSTRUCTIONS AUSTRALIA HCP (1200m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:

 

Tricky sprint to close the card. Tough 3YO Warwick Farm filly 1. DUCHESS MARIZZA (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Brodie Loy; 59.5kg) did plenty of work on debut at Gosford, but still attacked the line for an impressive win. Heavy track may have flattered a little, but she came in off a nice trial win on firm ground, and this looks an ideal follow-up race.

 

MAIN DANGERS: Consistent 3YO Queanbeyan filly 10. I Am Grande charged home to win a weaker maiden at Wagga second-up, and this distance suits. Goulburn 4YO gelding 7. Love Me Broke is ready for a longer journey after finding the line well in two runs back this grade. Local 3YO gelding 4. Fever Tree kept fighting to win first-up here off a lengthy break, but facing more depth this time from an awkward draw; while watch the betting on 3YO local filly 13. Rare Gem who is drawn off the track at only fourth start, but was well backed at Wagga last time out.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: DUCHESS MARIZZA to Win

 

**My BEST BETS:

 

R1 2. LORD DESANIMAUX**

R2 6. BARGING TESS***

 

**My BEST VALUE:

 

R4 9. GIOCOSO*

R6 9. CALESCENT*

 

*TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:

Keith Dryden*

 

*JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:

Blaike McDougall**

Ms Heni Ede*

 

GOOD LUCK

@NeilEvansmail