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Cracking Canberra Preview - Neil Evans

1st Race @ 12.30pm

*Track around Soft 6 and Rail True so should play on or just off the speed before a late trend wider & from further back

 

RACE 1 @ 12.30pm SEEARS WORKWEAR HCP (2000m) - Class 1; Set Weights; 3YO & Up; Apprentices can claim:

We start with a competitive battle for the restricted stayers, and as always tactical and sectional speed will be pivotal. Improving 3YO local gelding 6. CASINO TIME (Gratz Vella/Ms Kayla Nisbet; 57.5kg) looks well placed back up to this trip after finishing hard from a mile back at Albury. Just needs a decent drag into the race from the half mile to be too strong late.

MAIN DANGERS: Randwick 3YO gelding 7. Echo Lad stuck on okay in a stronger BM 64 at Newcastle run in record time, and if he gets across okay from a wide draw okay, will be hard to run down. Goulburn 5YO 3. Outahand worked home well enough over the mile fourth-up, but doesn't have a sustained finish so will need to slot in and be saved up for one last crack.

Likely Tempo: Moderate to Fair

My Betting Attack: CASINO TIME to Win

 

RACE 2 @ 1.05pm XXXX GOLD HCP (1200m) - Maiden; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices can claim:

Tricky race. Debutant 3YO Warwick Farm filly 7. DUCHESS MARIZZA (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Brodie Loy; 56.5kg) draws off the track for her debut, but trials were strong and stable is flying.

MAIN DANGERS: Rival Warwick Farm 3YO 3. Hinvictus didn't get much luck resuming here in a handy maiden when well tried at each-way odds, and longer trip is a natural plus. Bred to be a good wet-tracker. If 3YO Randwick filly 9. Myzaboom handles the ground, she must be in the finish down in weight from the inside draw. Didn't run out the journey at Kembla, but much better suited here. Watch the betting on resuming 4YO Randwick mare 4. Premier Rose who draws well, and had two trials for smart stable. Held her own in tougher maiden company last spring. Goulburn 4YO mare 8. Fight For Love resumes without an official trial, but was consistently in and around the money last prep, and gets in well at the weights.

Likely Tempo: Fair to Good

My Betting Attack: DUCHESS MARIZZA to Win and Trifecta/First Four: 3,7/3,4,7,8,9/3,4,7,8,9

 

RACE 3 @ 1.40pm AFFINITY ELECTRICAL TECHNOLOGIES PLATE (1400m) - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices can claim:

Plenty of chances in this one at set weights headed by progressive 3YO Randwick filly 10. LE GAI SOLEIL (John O'Shea/Chad Lever; 57kg) who has found a suitable race resuming from a nice draw. Was close-up on debut in a handy maiden at Gosford, and readied for this with two trials, the latest strong through the line over 1050m.

MAIN DANGERS: Watch the betting on Rosehill 3YO 7. Super Dancer who has stuck on okay in two deeper maidens at the provincials to start her career, and will find this company and a softer track more to her liking, with blinkers going on. Improving 3YO local gelding 3. Mossy Oak will relish a little more ground after working home nicely in a handy maiden here at fourth start after being well backed, and the blinkers come off. The Waterhouse-Bott camp at Randwick unveils 3YO gelding 1. Chief Geronimo (More Than Ready x The Warrior Woman by Redoubte's Choice) who has been fitted with two forward trials, but drawing wide over this trip on debut is a task; while Warwick Farm filly 11. Cheeky Monkey has had four runs in first real prep, and was only collared late here in that same maiden as Mossy Oak.

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My Betting Attack: LE GAI SOLEIL to Win and Trifecta: 3,7,10/1,3,7,10,11/1,3,7,10,11

 

RACE 4 @ 2.15pm TAB FEDERAL (2000m) - BM 70 Hcp; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:

Feature race will be a real battle of tactics. Smart local 5YO mare 5. ROSEBANK (Luke Pepper/Ms Amy McLucas, a3kg; 54kg) steps up to this distance for the first time, but is the weighted runner of the race after rider's full claim. Was a dominant BM 58 winner at Goulburn under a big weight two starts back before leaving it way too late trying to chase down the tearaway leader here last start. Has more scope than the rest, and racing like this trip is ideal well into the prep.

MAIN DANGERS: Tough 5YO mare 3. She's A Treasure hasn't won for a long while, but gets her chance fourth-up and down in weight. Fought hard to just miss as a well backed fancy on a bog track at Wagga, and can roll forward from a middle barrier. Local 4YO gelding 6. Express Courier finished over the top of She's A Treasure in that BM 66 at Wagga, and draws to get a charmed run just off the speed, but meets her worse at the weights. Gundagai 5YO 1. Monkery can pick and choose his day, but drops back from the tougher Wagga Cup run on a Heavy 9 after previously charging home to win his home town Cup at big odds.

Likely Tempo: Moderate to Solid

My Betting Attack: ROSEBANK to Win and Quinella: 3 and 5

 

RACE 5 @ 2.55pm JOHN MCGRATH AUTO GROUP HCP (1400m) - BM 60; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices can claim:

Good race. Home track 6YO mare 2. AWAY SHE GOES (Luke Pepper/Blaike McDougall; 59.5kg) has never raced better, and looks supremely placed taking on slightly stronger over pet trip. Flew home late to win three back at Wagga, and just missed in a similar race there last start carting a hefty 62.5kg. Draws to be tucked away back in the field, and finish over the top.

MAIN DANGERS: Rival local 5YO mare 9. Milamoo is bursting to win one, and comes through similar Wagga form-lines as the top selection. Has flashed home to just miss in her last three, and very well in at the weights. Will be powering home again. Progressive 3YO Warwick Farm filly 6. Rocquette was rewarded for some consistent form sweeping home to win a CL1 here over the mile fourth-up, but this is tougher; while Moruya 4YO 5. No Emotion has hit the line hard in his last three, although drawn off the track, and facing more depth.

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My Betting Attack: AWAY SHE GOES to Win and Trifecta 2,9/2,5,6,9/2,5,6,9

 

RACE 6 @ 3.35pm TAB LONG MAY WE PLAY HCP (1000m) - BM 65; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices can claim:

Very competitive dash, with several chances. This is a nice drop in grade fourth-up for 6YO local gelding 2. POLAR STAR (Nick Olive/Ms Ellen Hennessy, a2kg; 61kg) who was close-up in a BM 70 here two starts back before working home okay against stronger at Warwick Farm when having little luck. Draws to get a nice trail, prefers soft ground, and 2kg claim is crucial.

MAIN DANGERS: Under-rated Boorowa 6YO 5. Revolver has been in the placings in consecutive BM 66 races at Goulburn, and even better suited with more sting out of the ground. Watch the betting on 3YO local filly 6. Calescent who resumes for leading stable with no official trial, but has a smart fresh record, and reportedly working well; while Albury 6YO 3. Nevada Dane continues to improve fighting on to win a BM 66 at home third-up, and leading Riverina jockey sticks.

Likely Tempo Good to Strong:

My Betting Attack: POLAR STAR to Win

 

RACE 7 @ 4.10pm ELVIN GROUP HCP (1200m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices can claim:

We close the meeting with another sprint, and promising 3YO local gelding 2. NUREMBURG CASTLE (Matt Dale/Nick Heywood; 59.5kg) looks primed to take the next step. Was a good thing beat on debut at Wagga when had no luck getting clear in the straight before a dominant off-speed win at Goulburn as a hot favorite with plenty left in the tank. Back at home over more ground are further plusses. The one to beat!

MAIN DANGERS: Smart 3YO Warwick Farm filly 5. Kimmylee is a serious threat second-up after drifting too far back resuming here in a handy BM 60. Randwick 3YO 4. Rocketing To Win finally landed his maiden at this track deep into the prep, and is hard fit for a tougher test. Big market watch on 3YO home track filly 5. Sunstone resuming off a five-month break, and having first run for the Dale stable. Started a short-priced favorite in three of four runs in SA last prep, and returns with several key gear changes. Watch for any betting move too on local 5YO gelding 3. Roman who hasn't raced since  an impressive debut win at Wodonga more than a year ago, and has been given a quiet trial back in the stable where his career started.

Likely Tempo: Good

My Betting Attack: NUREMBURG CASTLE to Win and Quinella 2 and 5

 

My BEST BETS

R1 6. CASINO TIME**

R6 2. POLAR STAR*

R7 2. NUREMBURG CASTLE**

 

My BEST VALUE

R4 5. ROSEBANK**

 

JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW

Nick Heywood

Ms Ellen Hennessy

 

TRAINERS TO FOLLOW

Matt Dale

Luke Pepper

Nick Olive

 

GOOD LUCK

@NeilEvansmail

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