Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans - 29 March 2023

*RACE 1 @ 1.31pm IRON JACK MAIDEN PLATE (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 4. LA MIA VIA (Keith Dryden/Damon Budler a0kg; 57kg & barrier 5) -The maiden sprinters get us rolling at set weights on a surface that is likely to slip back deep into soft, even heavy range, with rain forecast. Keen at very good odds on this 4YO home track mare by renowned wet track sire Your Song 2nd-up, with a key gear change. Finished right in the money in three runs through heavy ground last prep before resuming with a gallant effort in the stronger Lickety Split on Cup day here. Stays at the same weight, with winkers coming off, and the middle gate gives the jockey options

 

DANGERS: 2. *Dressed To Kill; 3. **Ohtani; 8. *Miss Patrika; 9. *Prophet Time; 10. *Helpisonitsway

 

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My BET PLAN: LA MIA VIA Each Way & First Four: 3,4/2,3,4,8,9,10/2,3,4,8,9,10/2,3,4,8,9,10

 

*RACE 2 @ 2.06pm SEEARS WORKWEAR MAIDEN PLATE (1200m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 2. INVETERATE (Nick Olive/Billy Owen; 59kg & barrier 11) -Still with the maidens at set weights, and it shapes nicely for this lightly raced Deep Field 4YO resuming off 2 very progressive trials - winninging the latest - and trained on the track. Was $2.60 favorite on debut in the country last spring when failing to attack the line; but improved sharply to surge home into a place in heavy ground at Wagga next start. Given plenty of time since, and this looks an ideal return assignment, with leading local jockey booked to ride

 

DANGERS: 4. *Crinkle Cutz; 5. *Old Newmarket; 11. *Impending Harmony

 

Likely Tempo: SOLID

My BET PLAN: INVETERATE to WIN

 

*RACE 3 @ 2.41pm ELVIN GROUP MAIDEN HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 1. CHOOSE YOUR WORDS (Gai waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Ms Winona Costin; 59kg & barrier 8) -Stepping up a little more in distance, and this progressive & tough Randwick-based filly by Redoute's Choice looks primed to break through 3rd-up. Stuck on well to beat all bar the winner at Muswellbrook, and this looks a shade easier given 19 days between runs. Likes to roll forward, and bred to handle any track downgrades

 

DANGERS: 3. *Decimus (also accepted for Warwick Farm); 4. *Star Legacy

 

Likely Tempo: Reasonable

My BET PLAN: CHOOSE YOUR WORDS to WIN

 

*RACE 4 @ 3.16pm TAB BETS FRIENDS 3YO & UP CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 8. BONUS TEMPUS (Brett Lazzarini/Ms Ellen Hennessy; 55kg & barrier 10 -Out to the longer distance we go for a good quality battle for this grade, and naturally there are many chances. Love the value, though, aboard this tough and underrated provincial 3YO by Impending. Was in and around the money in three straight provincials efforts over similar trips before caught through inferior ground late at Gosford 13 days ago. Still a maiden, but hard fit, and gets a crucial 2.5kg weight drop for this, and drawn further out where the better going is likely to be

 

DANGERS: 2. **Makadeel; 5. *Poker Dice; 6. *Rapid Impact; 7. *Aunt Roberta; 11. **Itsagooddeel

 

Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable

My BET PLAN: BONUS TEMPUS Each Way & Box Exacta: 2,8,11

 

*RACE 5 @ 3.51pm AFFINITY ELECTRICAL TECHNOLOGIES CLASS 1 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 1. FLASHING STEEL (Annabel Neasham/Jett Stanley a1.5kg; 60kg & barrier 10) -Reasonably open and good betting race here too, although no better value than this capable Warwick Farm 3YO by prolific soft track sire Not A Single Doubt who reloads off a 12 week break after failing in metro BM 70 grade at Flemington. Took big strides in the 2nd half of last year, twice competitive in metro company before cracking his maiden in a handy form race at Scone in mid December. Given 2 progressive trials by a leading stable, will roll forward from a wide draw, and big weight off-set by a 1.5kg-claiming rider

 

DANGERS: 2. *London; 5. *Manzoni; 8. *Anchorage

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My BET PLAN: FLASHING STEEL to WIN

 

*RACE 6 @ 4.26pm JOHN McGRATH AUTO GROUP BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Cannot Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 5. OFFSPRING (Keith Dryden/Jeff Penza; 59kg & barrier 4) -Handy depth for this grade over the mile. Very keen on a lightly raced & home track Zoustar filly who peaks 3rd-up on a clear class drop. Missed by a whisker resuming here in the Guineas Preview before holding her ground in the Listed Guineas on a day when it was hard to make ground on the leaders. Proven performer on rain-affected ground, and from an ideal trailing draw, she can go home best and likely book a spot in a Highway

 

DANGERS: 2. *Temoin Chaud; 7. *Jimmy Manolo; 8. **Regal Inheritance; 9. *Pinky

 

Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid

My BET PLAN: OFFSPRING to WIN & Trifecta: 5,8/2,5,7,8,9/2,5,7,8,9

 

*RACE 7 @ 5.01pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 57kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 7. CAREER CHANGE (Clint Lundholm/Benjamin Osmond a2kg; 56.5kg & barrier 7) -Now for the Federal feature over the sprint trip, and in a wide market with several chances, there's little between the top fancies. Settled on this still progressing 4YO country mare by Star Turn 3rd-up and crucially staying at the trip. Fought on well resuming in a handy CL3 before dominant from the front in BM 66 grade at Dubbo. Stable doesn't venture here that often, so that's a strong lead given this girl boasts a 33 percent win rate from just 12 starts, and won her only previous outing in heavy ground comfortably

 

DANGERS: 1. *I Call Junee Home; 2. *Lipstick Swing; 3. *Zelago; 10. *Greaves

 

Likely Tempo: Good

My BET PLAN: CAREER CHANGE to WIN

 

*RACE 8 @ 5.36pm GOOD FRIDAY RACING AT THOROUGHBRED PARK BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 7. STRATUM PRIDE (Keith Dryden/Robbie Dolan; 60kg & barrier 3) -Good competitive market battle to bring us home; & keen to ride with this tough 4YO home track mare by Stratum Star back in trip and grade 4th-up. Hit the line hard into a place here in Highway company three runs ago; and again finished off well in BM 75 company here on Cup day. Drawn to get early cover, and her best form is clearly on heavy ground so the more rain the better

 

DANGERS: 3. *Watch Me Rumble; 8. *Unique Prince; 9. *Cable Tie

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My BET PLAN: STRATUM PRIDE to WIN

 

**My BEST EARLY BETS:

 

R5 1. FLASHING STEEL** Expect: $4.50 - $4.75; My Early Rating: $2.70

R7 7. CAREER CHANGE** Expect: $4.25 - $4.60; My Early Rating: $2.75

 

**My BEST EARLY VALUE:

 

R1 4. LA MIA VIA** Expect: $7.50 - $8.50; My Early Rating: $4.05

R8 7. STRATUM PRIDE** Expect: $5.50 - $6.50; My Early Rating: $3.70

 

**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:

 

R1: First Four: 3,4/2,3,4,8,9,10/2,3,4,8,9,10/2,3,4,8,9,10

 

GOOD LUCK

@NeilEvansmail

"Neil Evans Says"

Racing Podcast