Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 25 November 2022
*1st Race @ 1.21pm
*Track likely improving near Good 4 & Rail out +10m (previous meeting +7m):
*RACE 1 @ 1.21pm SKY RACING RACE CALLERS CUP OPEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. PRETTY WOMAN (Matthew Dale/Jeff Penza; 56kg & barrier 1) -We start the big day with a very competitive open class sprint on a surface drying out all the time & should reach a Good 4 by some stage. Delighted to see this talented 4YO Written Tycoon mare back at home, and ready to return to the winner's stall 2nd-up. Found the line well, resuming off a lengthy break in a much tougher CL3 Highway at Randwick, and drawn to get a cosy run right behind the pace-setter. Winkers go back on, and looks thrown into this small field under only 56kg with the rail pushed out a long way
DANGERS: 1. *Major Time; 5. **Smuggler's Run
Likely Tempo: Moderate
My BET PLAN: PRETTY WOMAN to WIN & Quinella 4 and 5
*RACE 2 @ 1.56pm DELKON CARPENTRY MAIDEN PLATE (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 7. STAR SHILLING (Matthew Dale/Ms Louise Day; 57kg & barrier 1) -Still over the short course for the maidens at set weights, and it shapes up nicely for this 4YO local Star Witness mare from the same stable, peaking 3rd-up from the inside draw. Has led for a long way in two runs back, and draws to control what looks a thinner race. The one to beat
DANGERS: 1. *Heaven's Door; 9. *Star To Fall
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: STAR SHILLING to WIN
*RACE 3 @ 2.31pm CORKHILL BROS PEGASUS CHARITY RACE DAY 3YO & UP CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. DIATONIC (John Sargent/James Innes Jnr; 57.5kg & barrier 8) -Tricky tactical affair here over the mile. Leaning heavily to this lightly raced 3YO metro colt by Choisir who can improve sharply 2nd-up staying at the distance. Couldn't run home when resuming in a deeper race at Gosford, but the bigger track & much longer straight is a concerted plus, and he led all the way to win at the same stage of his initial prep. Regular rider gets back on, and winkers have been added
DANGERS: 1. **Neidr Dawn; 2. *Supra Marnium; 11. *Who's In Winny
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: DIATONIC to WIN & Quinella: 1 and 4
*RACE 4 @ 3.06pm GINNINDERRY CLASS 1 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. ENZINA (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Ms Louise Day; 59.5kg & barrier 1) -Back to the five furlong dash here, and there are a few chances. Like the 3rd-up placement of this capable and still emerging 3YO metro filly who draws to either lead, or sit right behind. Was strong through the line winning 1st-up at Hawkesbury over the same trip before the early work from the gate told late at the track next start. Given five weeks since, and a sharp rise in weight is more than off-set by a clear drop in quality and depth
DANGERS: 4. *Negation; 5. *Fifo Filly
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: ENZINA to WIN & Box Trifecta: 2,4,5
*RACE 5 @ 3.43pm RIVERVIEW PROJECTS BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. SPARRING (Ron Stubbs/Nick Souquet; 62kg & barrier 1) -Can't go past this smart Albury 4YO by Fighting Sun who resumes off a sharp trial win in Victoria, and looks to have this at his mercy. Hasn't raced since mid April when dropping out in a Highway after being very competitive in much tougher sprint company, and on debut earlier in the year he destroyed his maiden opposition by more than six lengths at home with something in hand. Was scratched from a better sprint earlier in the week to be saved for this, and the stable is having a great run. Times & margins
DANGERS: 2. *Onya Lional
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: SPARRING to WIN & Quinella 1 & 2
*RACE 6 @ 4.23pm JAMES MUNRO AO MEMORIAL BENCHMARK 65 HCP (2000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. BRAVE BOY (Brad Widdup/Robbie Dolan; 58.5kg & barrier 3) -Not much between a few of these here over the longer journey. Keen on this consistent and honest Hawkesbury 4YO who has run home into 3rd place in his last three outings. Hard fit now deep into the prep, and draws to get a similar cover run just off the speed. Was hard in the market at the provincials 20 days ago, and less depth in this
DANGERS: 1. **Lady Redwood; 2. *Street Cred; 4. *De Valera; 6. **Sweet Honest
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: BRAVE BOY to WIN & Trifecta: 1,3,6/1,2,3,4,6/1,2,3,4,6
*RACE 7 @ 5.03pm MARCUS QUINLIVIAN OAM MEMORIAL MAIDEN HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. LALAGUNA (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Ms Louise Day; 58kg & barrier 9) -Intriguing maiden, although this resuming 3YO metro filly has a stack of ability, and is the clear one to gun down if she starts having also been accepted for Canterbury on Friday night. Progressed to Group 3 level in SA at only her 3rd start through autumn after missing by a long head the start before in smart maiden company at Ballarat. Given plenty of educational time since by a leading stable, and looked as strong as an ox winning the second of two trials last month. Been nicely fitted to run out this trip fresh with blinkers coming off, and connections have pin-pointed some strong mile races to target further into the prep
DANGERS: 5. *Miss Adrenalin; 7. *All So Easy; 14. *Impressiero
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: LALAGUNA to WIN & Trifecta: 3/5,7,14/5,7,14
*RACE 8 @ 5.44pm TAB FEDERAL TONY CAMPBELL MEMORIAL CUP OPEN HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. READY TO HUMBLE (Nick Olive/Jeff Penza; 61kg & barrier 9) -Feature race of the day serves up plenty of quality and depth; and naturally several chances. Like this Queanbeyan-based Rubick 6YO getting back on to dry ground 5th-up. Was competitive in three straight deeper metro races, including finishing just over 4 lengths from the winner in the Big Dance over a mile at Randwick, before doing too much work from the wide gate to find the front in the BM 95 Snake Gully Cup at Gundagai. No concern carrying the big weight, and couldn't be any fitter now rolling forward, and staying at his pet distance
DANGERS: 4. *Golden Gorge; 6. **Toretto; 7. **Wichita Warrior; 9. *Propose A Toast
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: READY TO HUMBLE Each Way & Trifecta: 2,6,7/2,4,6,7,9/2,4,6,7,9
*RACE 9 @ 6.19pm DELKON STAIRS CLASS 2 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. PACIFIC FORCE (Matthew Smith/Blaike Spriggs; 59kg & barrier 8) -Good strong battle for this class to finish. Like this progressive metro 4YO by Starspangledbanner who can peak here 3rd-up over 100m further. Failed to hit the line resuming at the provincials, but that was his first run in 22 weeks, and was much stronger late at Kembla just 13 days ago. Reasonably well in at the weights here carrying only half kilo more, and he'll relish the long run home. Was scratched from Thursday's Wyong meeting to run here
DANGERS: 2. *Definitely Maybe; 4. *Budderoo Blitz; 5. *How Do You Sleep; 7. *Mil Ciento; 8. **Johnny Dash
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: PACIFIC FORCE to WIN
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R2 7. STAR SHILLING** Expect: $2.00 - $2.15; My Early Rating: $1.70
R4 2. ENZINA** Expect: $3.75 - $4.00; My Early Rating: $2.30
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R6 3. BRAVE BOY* Expect: $4.50 - $4.85; My Early Rating: $3.20
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R1: ***QUINELLA: 4 & 5
R6: *TRIFECTA: 1,3,6/1,2,3,4,6/1,2,3,4,6
GOOD LUCK