Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 24 September 2022
*1st Race @ 12.25pm
*Track likely Soft 7/Heavy 8 & Rail out 7m (3m last meeting):
*RACE 1 @ 12.25pm THE ROB NICHOLAS CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. HALLOWED SON (John Sargent/Shaun Guymer; 56.5kg & barrier 8) -Tricky battle of tactics over the longer journey to get us underway on a surface likely to stay well in soft range. Very keen on this still improving Randwick 4YO who has been banging on the door in four runs this spell, and looks primed here with blinkers back on. Tracked the speed before working home okay in a good quality maiden at Scone before charging late to just miss in a Class 1 here eight days ago. Steps up from the mile trips now at the right time under the same weight, and even better suited on a soft surface rather than very heavy. The one to beat!
DANGERS: 2. *Inti; 3. *Buff In Disguise
Likely Tempo: Fair
My BET PLAN: HALLOWED SON to WIN
*RACE 2 @ 1.01pm NVS PAVING & LANDSCAPING OPEN HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. ISLAND BAY BOY (Tony Sergi/Richard Bensley; 56.5kg & barrier 2) -Competitive open class sprint, and no better value in a race of a few chances than this good class All Too Hard 5YO resuming off a 4 month spell. Was very competitive in generally deeper races through autumn around the mile distance, including a smart BM 80 win from just off the speed, and placed in metropolitan BM 72 grade when powering home in heavy ground from well back. Has trialled nicely at his Queanbeyan base, was scratched from this venue eight days ago to be saved for a soft rather than very heavy rating, and comes to hand quickly. Only concern is the lack of speed up front, so might well have to get on his bike early
DANGERS: 1. *Dream Runner; 2. *Mad As Zariz; 3. **Upper House;
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Fair
My BET PLAN: ISLAND BAY BOY Each Way & Trifecta 3,5/1,2,3,5/1,2,3,5
*RACE 3 @ 1.36pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. SKY DIAMONDS (Keith Dryden/Nick Heywood; 56.5kg & barrier 1) -A smaller yet still intriguing field in the Federal, again without much on-speed tempo over the mile which should hand The Pres coming back in trip an easy lead. Keen on this still progressing and underrated 6YO home track mare a fortnight after she went down narrowly in a handy Class 3 at Goulburn. Had previously hit the line hard from a long way back in much tougher Highway grade at Rosehill, and she's bursting to break a long run of outs. Sparingly raced this year, and looks very well treated at the weights from the inside gate, parking around midfield
DANGERS: 1. *Nieces And Nephews; 2. **Scarlet Prince; 4. *Mathrin; 5. *The Pres
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: SKY DIAMONDS to WIN & Quinella: 2 and 3
*RACE 4 @ 2.11pm DOUGHBOY DOWNS AGISTMENT & SPELLING BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. CHALKLEY (Mark de Montfort/Robbie Brewer; 59.5kg & barrier 3) -Like this tough and still underrated metropolitan-based 5YO who is ready to win only for the 2nd time, deep into the current prep if he backs up in 6 days. Bypassed last Friday's very heavy conditions here to be beaten just over a length in a blanket finish on the South Coast last Sunday carrying a hefty 61kg. Races best on soft-rated ground, and gets blinkers on for the first time. Previously had stuck on very well after leading at Bathurst before chasing home a smart galloper into a place in a handy CL1 field. Well up to this level now, and boasts more than enough tactical speed to take advantage of the better draw
DANGERS: 1. *No Statement; 4. **Miss Hoff; 5. *Zalini; 6. *Yesterday's Gone
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: CHALKLEY to WIN & Quinella: 3 and 4
*RACE 5 @ 2.46pm WATERLAND IRRIGATION MAIDEN HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. LITTLE LANAI (Jason Coyle/Jack Martin; 57kg & barrier 8) -Testing and moderate maiden here, with plenty of chances. Like the value about this lightly raced and improving 4YO metropolitan mare 2nd-up. Was placed twice in her first prep through autumn, including finishing only a long neck from the winner in heavy ground at Canterbury over a middle distance. Did her best work late 1st-up for 4 months at Kembla when specked at a double figure price, and stays at the trip here coming back to a thinner race
DANGERS: 3. *Miss Capella; 5. *Quantum Star; 12. *The Percentage; 13. *Victory Salute
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: LITTLE LANAI to WIN
*RACE 6 @ 3.33pm WALSCO ELECTRICAL & DATA BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. SHADDY (Anthony Warren/Nick Heywood; 50kg & barrier 5) -After a determined win for us last start here, chasing down a promising one 3 weeks ago, this still underrated & tough Hallowed Crown 5YO can go back-to-back stepping up a level & carrying a half kilo less. Maps to get a nice trail just off the speed & one off the fence, and right at home on any degree of rain-affected ground. Moves up 100m in distance, yet being out of a Zabeel mare, will get to the mile and beyond easily
DANGERS: 3. *Unearthed; 4. *Vancouver Khan; 5. *Loafing
Likely Tempo: Fair
My BET PLAN: SHADDY to WIN
*RACE 7 @ 4.13pm AIRCONDITIONING CANBERRA PTY LTD CLASS 1 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. WATCH ME NAE NAE (Thomas Lyttle/Ms Anna Roper a2kg; 53kg & barrier 5) -Very good quality race for this class with several strong hopes. Like this much-improved 5YO South Coast mare by Deep Field who thundered home in similar going at Moruya to claim her maiden 13 days ago, and can immediately take the next step up. Drawn to sit back off the fence, and gets in light after emerging jockey's 2kg claim. Expect there will be decent pace up front in this, and that should allow her to ease to the middle of a suitably bigger track and finish like a train
DANGERS: 1. **In De Sun Iwilcome; 2. *Still In Fashion; 3. *Flying Mia; 9. *White Liar
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: WATCH ME NAE NAE Each Way & Trifecta: 1,5/1,2,3,5/1,2,3,5,9
*RACE 8 @ 4.55pm CHARMAN EARTHMOVING & HEAVY HAULAGE MAIDEN PLATE (1200m): Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 7. HOLD FAST TO LOVE (Danielle Seib/Nick Heywood; 57kg & barrier 2) -Open & moderate maiden at set weights to wrap up the card. Leaning clearly to this improving 4YO mare by Pride Of Dubai who can strike deep into the current prep, with blinkers coming off. Has charged home from both the rear and just off the speed to beat all bar the winner in her last two, and relishes wet tracks. Should get enough speed up front here to settle around midfield with cover before pulling out & producing a telling final 350m finish. Was scratched from her home track meeting on Friday to be saved for this.
DANGERS: 4. *Quizy; 6. *Geminids; 10. *Tilley's Love
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: HOLD FAST TO LOVE to WIN
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R1 4. HALLOWED SON**
R3 3. SKY DIAMONDS*
R6 1. SHADDY**
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R5 4. LITTLE LANAI*
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R4: **QUINELLA: 3 & 4
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail