Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 24 February 2023
*RACE 1 @ 1.35pm SNEDDEN HALL & GALLOP CLASS 1 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. NOBEL (Richard Litt/Brad Rawiller; 60kg & barrier 5) -We start with a competitive sprint for this class, and am very keen to back a tough Warwick Farm-based 3YO by Exceed And Excel 5th-up and dropping in grade. Beat a very handy country maiden field two starts back, finishing hard from midfield, before parking closer and peaking on the effort in a Midway provincial CL1 in unsuitable heavy going. Back nearer the top of the ground here, and 24 days between runs, he can settle a few lengths off the speed and finish the stronger. Importantly was an early scratching from the Guineas Prelude to be saved for this
DANGERS: 3. *Galactic Warrior; 5. *Fire And Gemstone; 6. *Burgundy Girl
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: NOBEL to WIN
*RACE 2 @ 2.10pm TBC DISTRIBUTION MAIDEN PLATE (1300m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 8. WITNESS TO LOVE (Keith Dryden/Jeff Penza; 57kg & barrier 2) -Same distance for a tricky maiden at set weights. Settled on this local 5YO mare by Star Witness, crucially with the blinkers coming off 4th-up. Wasn't far away in a handy maiden here two starts back before failing to fire a shot from the back last time when soft in betting. Better placed this time, with a far strong and superior rider taking over, and this is weak
DANGERS: 2. *Ambitious Fella; 5. *Norris; 9. **Miss Ghent
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: WITNESS TO LOVE to WIN & Quinella: 8 and 9
*RACE 3 @ 2.45pm CASINO CANBERRA CANBERRA GUINEAS 3YO PREVIEW (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. OFFSPRING (Keith Dryden/Jeff Penza/55.5kg & barrier 1) -Only 6 going around in the Guineas Preview, but should still be a decent betting affair. It hasn't all gone to plan for this talented home track filly by Zoustar, but she returns for a 2nd prep in a very suitable race over the right trip. Took 3 runs to break her maiden in dominant fashion here as a hot favourite, but showed enough getting home in that one-off debut run last winter, to suggest she'll be fitted to go here, especially in soft ground. Drawn to get an easy run inside, although may need to get away from the fence, but no concern there in such a small field. Scratched from the opening race to run here
DANGERS: 1. *Show No Compassion; 3. *Region Time; 5. **November Falls; 6. *Kingofsomewherehot
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Fair
My BET PLAN: OFFSPRING to WIN & Quinella: 4 and 5
*RACE 4 @ 3.25pm MANE LODGE CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. PURE HYDROGEN (John Thompson/Brock Ryan/ 57.5kg & barrier 9) -This capable and still improving Randwick 3YO by Group 1 winner Exosphere looms as the one to beat getting out to the mile 5th-up. Surged home from the back to beat a useful maiden field at Goulburn two starts ago in soft ground before doing his best work late in much tougher provincial BM 64 grade 17 days ago. Thrives on the long run home, and again will settle back off the speed before producing a superior closing sectional
DANGERS: 2. *Supra Marnium; 3. **Zedly; 4. *Arch Of Titus; 7. *Beenvane; 11. **Fierce Legend
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: PURE HYDROGEN to WIN & Box Exacta: 3,5,11
*RACE 5 @ 4.05pm KENNARDS HIRE MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 12. JAAMEELATI (Annabel Neasham/Ms Alysha Collett; 55.5kg & barrier 6) -Back to the sprint trip for the maidens, and there are several chances. Expecting to see a totally different 3YO filly in action at a big price when this one returns for her first run in more than 9 months. Didn't fire a shot in 2 good quality maidens across late autumn last year as a 2YO, and was quickly turned out. Looked good through the line in the 2nd of two recent trials, and she's bred to thrive in any rain-affected ground being by I Am Invincible out of a Not A Single Doubt mare
DANGERS: 1. *Decimus; 2. *Prince Papa; 8. *Miss Black Diamond
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: JAAMEELATI Each Way
*RACE 6 @ 4.40pm ALAN RUMMERY BOOKMAKER SHANE CONNOLLY MEMORIAL BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. NONSHALAANT (Gary Portelli/Ms Madeline Wishart; 60kg & barrier 1) -Still over the five furlongs for the restricted sprinters, although a few can go on to win better races. One of those is this progressive Warwick Farm 3YO by prolific sprint sire Shalaa who can go back-to-back deep into his prep. Improved off 2 fair closing efforts at the provincials to dig in hard and narrowly claim a CL1 on the South Coast, easily running a faster final 600m than the BM 66 winner that day. Drawn to control the speed again here, and loves soft going
DANGERS: 1. *Onya Lionel; 3. **Scream; 4. Yesterday's Gone; 5. **Troika; 7. *Dehero
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: NONSHALAANT Each Way & Box Exacta: 2,3,5
*RACE 7 @ 5.15pm ETS REFRIGERATION & AIR CONDITIONING 2YO BLACK OPALPREVIEW (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 11. ONE KIND (Allan Kehoe/TBA & barrier 15) -Now for the juveniles, all trying to make a claim for the Group 3 Black Opal Stakes in 16 days time. In a big, but only moderate and tricky field with half of them on debut, keen at the big value on this provincial-based Sebring Sun filly having just her second start. Sat back at the tail on debut and put a small Grafton field to the sword easily enough, 17 days after she had comfortably won a provincial trial in soft ground. Again drawn wide so she can settle back off a good speed & be given her head down the middle part over the final 350m. Over the odds
DANGERS: 4. *Love Struck; 7. **Allaboutella; 13.*Snippety Star; 14. **Tu Qui Santuzza
Likely Tempo: Good
My BET PLAN: ONE KIND Each Way & Trifecta: 7,11,14/4,7,11,13,14/4,7,11,13,14
*RACE 8 @ 5.50pm AFFINITY ELECTRICAL CANBERRA MILE (1600m) - Quality; Min Weight 54kg; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. FOR VALOUR (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Ms Winona Costin; 54kg & barrier 10) -Now the feature mile race on the program, and in an open affair, it shapes nicely for this on-speed Randwick-based 5YO who is hard fit, lining up for his 5th start in just 7 weeks. Has kept improving as the distances have crept up; leading all the way to beat a handy BM 78 field at Canterbury under lights this time last week. Best weighted runner in the race dropping significantly down to the limit 54kg under the Quality conditions, and he can work across from a wider draw and either sit outside the speed or arrest the lead
DANGERS: 2. **Love Tap; 3. *Mission Phoenix; 5. *Caesars Palace; 7. **Manderboss
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: FOR VALOUR to WIN & Trifecta: 2,6,7/2,3,5,6,7/2,3,5,6,7
*RACE 9 @ 6.20pm TAB FEDERAL NATIONAL SPRINT PREVIEW HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. SUPER HELPFUL (Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones/Quade Krogh; 59kg & barrier 10) -Another competitive and open battle to finish. Confident this home track 4YO by Super One can strike 1st-up at good odds. Very progressive through his last prep winning 2 from 5 up to country BM 95 grade, and comes to hand early in a campaign. Was strong through the line in a recent trial, and has only missed a place once from seven starts in soft going. Drawn to settle just off the speed & be taken to the middle after turning where the better ground will likely be
DANGERS: 6. *Sunrise Ruby;9. *More Than Merrier; 10. *King Gutho
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: SUPER HELPFUL Each Way
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R1 1. NOBEL** Expect: $1.90 - $2.00; My Early Rating: $1.67
R4 5. PURE HYDROGEN** Expect: $3.60 - $3.85; My Early Rating: $2.30
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R9 2. SUPER HELPFUL** Expect: $6.00 - $7.00; My Early Rating: $4.00
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R3: **QUINELLA: 4 & 5
R7: *TRIFECTA: 7,11,14/4,7,11,13,14/4,7,11,13,14
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail