Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans - 21 October 2022
*1st Race @ 1.41pm
*Track likely Soft 7/Heavy 8 with rain forecast & Rail True:
*RACE 1 @ 1.41pm NEW ZEALAND BLOODSTOCK CLASS 2 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. SKY DIAMONDS (Keith Dryden/Brendan Ward; 60kg & barrier 1) -small but competitive field to get us rocking on a track that will likely settle back in heavy range, with plenty of rain forecast. Hard to go past this 6YO home track Deep Field mare who draws to get the sweetest of runs on the fence, and is the superior wet tracker. Charged late to miss narrowly in a handy CL3 at Goulburn two starts back before again attacking the line late to miss by less than a length in much tougher BM 70 Federal grade. Back in this company, with very little speed elsewhere, she has it at her mercy
DANGERS: 4. *Super Riff; 5. **Zo Purrfect
Likely Tempo: Moderate
My BET PLAN: SKY DIAMONDS to WIN & Quinella: 1 & 5
*RACE 2 @ 2.16pm KARNDEAN DESIGN FLOORING BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. SHAKA ROCK (Theresa Bateup/Ms Jess Taylor; 60.5kg & barrier 5) -the extra 200m on a track likely to be well downgraded and heavily rain-affected augurs well for this tough provincial 6YO by Proisir 4th-up off a lengthy break. Held his ground okay two starts back in a handy country CL3 before just fair to the line in a deeper provincial race. Improves now in a race with less depth, and screaming for the extra journey
DANGERS: 1. *Amegdul; 3. *Tough James; 5. *Loafing
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: SHAKA ROCK to WIN & Box Exacta 1,2,5
*RACE 3 @ 2.51pm NATIONAL FLOORING DISTRIBUTORS MAIDEN PLATE (1400m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 10. OFFSPRING (Keith Dryden/Ms Alysha Collet; 55kg & barrier 4) -no better placed or weighted runner than this 3YO local filly by boom wet track sire Zoustar who can strike 2nd-up at only her 3rd career run. Been given a month since surging home late in a handy maiden at Goulburn when solid in the market, and a little more ground is a further plus. Headed for bigger targets, and drawn to get a nice midfield trail sitting closer with cover in a race with little speed about
DANGERS: 1. **Factoring Profit; 7. *Associate
Likely Tempo: Fair
My BET PLAN: OFFSPRING to WIN & Quinella 1 and 10
*RACE 4 @ 3.28pm TERRY BROS CARPET COURT CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. AUTISSIER (Matthew Dale/Nick Heywood; 57kg & barrier 4) -Tougher contest now over the longer trip in a battle of tactics and tempo, with plenty of chances. Like this progressive 4YO mare who can make it two straight wins 4th-up. Powered home from just off the speed to win her maiden at her Moruya base in similar conditions, and that breakthrough experience serves her well here under the same weight in a race that isn't much harder. Northern Hemisphere-bred by a Group 1 mile winner, and will handle the sharp rise in distance
DANGERS: 2. *Sandastan; 3. *Sorokin; 5. *Crazy Ladies; 7. **Mandalong Missile; 10. *Lucky Stock
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: AUTISSIER to WIN & Trifecta: 4,7/2,3,4,5,7,10/2,3,4,5,7,10/2,3,4,5,7,10
*RACE 5 @ 4.08pm AFS MAIDEN HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 9. MRS GLOOP (Matthew Smith/Jean Van Overmeire; 55.5kg & barrier 3) -another open & tough affair for the maiden sprinters, but love the value about this metropolitan 4YO mare who can find her best 3rd-up off a seven week break via a sharpened trial. Didn't fire last time here in a deeper race, but 1st-up run in provincial company was good, and she showed ability earlier in the year across her first prep. Stable is going great guns and has made an important gear change, with a more experienced and polished rider taking over. Unproven if the track is heavy, but bred to handle it, and this is the lightest weight she's carried since debuting here in mid January
DANGERS: 2. *Press Forward; 5. **Oblique; 12. **Glowing Gold; 13. *Impressiero; *15 Superdini
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: MRS GLOOP Each Way & Trifecta/First Four: 5,9,12/2,5,9,12,13,15/2,5,9,12,13,15/2,5,9,12,13,15
*RACE 6 @ 4.48pm AIRSTEP CLASS 1 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. RUBIGAL (Matthew Smith/Ms Winona Costin; 57kg & barrier 9) -strong and wide race for this class, with most being comfortable on rain-affected ground. Leaning comfortably to this progressive 4YO Warwick Farm mare by renowned wet track sire Rubick, and from the same stable as the previous on top selection. Worked to the line nicely in a deeper provincial race 2 starts back before being taken to the front and never troubled in breaking her maiden back at country level on the Mid North Coast. Given 6 weeks between runs, loves wet tracks, and with an ability to either lead or sit back off the speed, she's well over the odds here
DANGERS: 1. *Mittata; 4. *Vaaroom; 5. *Anchorage; 6. *Geminids
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My BET PLAN: RUBIGAL Each Way
*RACE 7 @ 5.28pm GODFREY HURST BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 13. YESTERDAY'S GONE (Keith Dryden/Jeff Penza; 58kg & barrier 9) -big value on offer here about this 5YO home track mare by Fighting Sun reloading well into the prep 27 days between runs, and significantly with blinkers being added. Has run home late in her last three runs all on rain-affected ground after a smart 1st-up CL1 win here, but the freshen-up and gear addition are key moves from an experienced stable. She gets enough speed on up front here to settle back before unleashing down the middle where the better ground will probably be, and she revels in these conditions
DANGERS: 2. **Platara; 6. **Miss Hoff; 7. *Merc
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: YESTERDAY'S GONE Each Way & Box Exacta: 2,6,13
*RACE 8 @ 6.08pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. GIRLS ARE READY (Joe Cleary/Ms Jess Taylor; 60.5kg & barrier 5) -Testing battle over the mile in the feature race, but shapes nicely for this tough and hard finishing 6YO mare second-up. Failed to run on resuming in a strong provincial BM 64 behind a smart winner, but she generally improves significantly into the next run, and has an outstanding record on heavy tracks. Been used to carrying weight for a long time, and goes up sharply in distance here, but that gives her plenty of time to find her feet before winding up down the middle late
DANGERS: 1. **Nieces And Nephews; 2. *Rent A Rock; 5. *Witchita Warrior
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: GIRLS ARE READY Each Way & Box Trifecta: 1,2,4,5
*RACE 9 @ 6.40pm FELTEX CARPETS OPEN HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim
TOP SELECTION: 8. FANGELA (Keith Dryden/Ms Molly Bourke a2kg; 55.5kg & barrier 6) -competitive and open sprint to close the card, and finally we can hop back aboard this tough and consistently uncompromising home track 5YO who resumes off a near five month break in a suitable race. Took big strides last prep winning a BM 65 here and a country BM 74 either side of consecutive placings in deeper grade before outclassed in much tougher BM 78 metro company. Has been working well, and will roll forward from a middle draw under a light weight once the regular rider takes 2kg off.
DANGERS: 5. *Mr Magical; 10. *Island Bay Boy; 7. *Moralist; 14. *Secretively
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: FANGELA to WIN
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R2 2. SHAKA ROCK* Expect: $4.75 - $5.00; My Early Rating: $3.20
R3 10. OFFSPRING** Expect: $1.85 - $2.00; My Early Rating: $1.50
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R6 3. RUBIGAL** Expect: Expect: $6.00 - $7.00; My Early Rating: $3.75
R7 13. YESTERDAY'S GONE** Expect: $14.00 - $16.00; My Early Rating: $7.25
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R3: **Quinella 1 & 10
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail