Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans - 21 April 2023
*RACE 1 @ 12.30pm GINNINDERRA CRICKET CLUB MAIDEN HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. IMPENDING HARMONY (Keith Dryden/Damon Budler a0kg; 55.5kg & barrier 5) -The maidens kick off the day & while this home track 3YO filly by Impending has been disappointing in 2 runs this prep, this is a drop in depth & quality, and she looks primed suited over 100m further. Dropped out resuming in a Federal Maiden, although was solid in the market that day before only paddling to the line in a country maiden 12 days back. Gets a little weight relief, and most of these have poor form
DANGERS: 5. **Gypsy Romance; 9. *Summerset Girl
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My BET PLAN: IMPENDING HARMONY to WIN & Quinella: 5 and 6
*RACE 2 @ 1.05pm FREEDOM PROJECTS MAIDEN PLATE (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 9. O'SO DEMANDING (Bjorn Baker/Ms Winona Costin; 55kg & barrier 5) -Back in distance now for a more open & good quality maiden, although if this debutant filly by prolific sprint sire Written Tycoon brings her latest trial form, she's the measuring stick. Was strong through the line in that trial, and being out of a Sebring mare, any cut out of the surface is right up her alley. Drawn okay, and both trainer and jockey are having a very good run at the moment
DANGERS: 4. *Miss Beautiful; 6. **Best Intent; 8. *Harlemite
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My BET PLAN: O'SO DEMANDING to WIN & Quinella: 6 and 9
*RACE 3 @ 1.40pm ARCHER REAL ESTATE CANBERRA CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. ELLIE'S DREAM (Matthew Smith/Ms Alysha Collett; 57.5kg & barrier 8) -Up to the mile here & very keen to ride home with this lightly raced & improving 3YO by Dream Ahead getting back on firmer footing at his 4th start. Was taken to the front here a fortnight ago when boxing on for a fair way in heavy ground behind a smart winner, but he proved in a fast-finishing 2nd start maiden win to cap his first prep late last year, being ridden quiet back in the field is the right approach. Naturally fitter, and he'll get plenty of room down this straight to produce his best
DANGERS: 1. *By Nine; 4. *Zedly; 7. *Primary Purpose
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: ELLIE'S DREAM to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 2.15pm THANKS FOR 5 YEARS MARK DEEKER CLASS 1 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. MIL CIENTO (Joseph Ible/Billy Owen; 58kg & barrier 5) -Not much between the leading fancies here; but very content to be aboard this provincial-based 4YO by Super One 2nd-up and 5 weeks between runs. Didn't do much in the run home, resuming off a 4 month spell in a handy BM 58, but he always improves significantly into his next run. Has trialled in open class since, and blinkers coming off is a sure sign he's now switched on, and this isn't strong
DANGERS: 1. *In De Sun Iwilcome; 2. *Hello Jack; 5. *Deep Shimmer
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: MIL CIENTO to WIN & Boxed First Four: 1,2,3,5
*RACE 5 @ 2.55pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. UNIQUE PRINCE (Matthew Dale/Nick Heywood; 59kg & barrier 5) -Now for the feature Federal battle in a smaller, but still very competitive affair. After finally winning again for the Preview, last start in a Federal, no reason to get off this tough 5YO by Shaft, especially on what is a confident 7-day back-up. Tracked up from midfield before surging between runners at the 175m to win last time, and the extra little distance is only a plus. With no rain predicted, a drying track suits, and again expect him to settle off the fence and just off the speed before surging from the 450m
DANGERS: 2. **Easy Rosie; 4. *Carnival Miss; 8. *Crucial Witness
Likely Tempo: Fair
My BET PLAN: UNIQUE PRINCE to WIN & Trifecta: 2,3/2,4,3,8/2,3,4,8
*RACE 6 @ 3.35pm PAGE BOTTLER BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. RED MICK (Clare Cunningham/Alysha Collett; 60kg & barrier 4) -Like this progressive & lightly raced metropolitan 6YO 2nd-up. Worked home strong from the back resuming in a deeper Midway CL1 at the provincials, and stable has found a very winnable follow-up task. Won 2nd-up in his first prep in Victoria, and from this draw he can settle a bit closer in the run & go home best from the 350m
DANGERS: 2. *Noble Beauty; 5. *Alamahero; 6. *Charlemagne; 10. *Dehero
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: RED MICK to WIN
*RACE 7 @ 4.10pm FREEDOM PROJECTS CLASS 2 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. SISTER MOON (Keith Dryden/James Innes Jnr; 57.5kg & barrier 9) -All being equal, can't see this talented & unbeaten 4YO mare by Fighting Sun blotting her blooming record. Has come from just off the speed & much further back to win both starts so far on the NSW South Coast, and looks well suited here drawn to get to the outside stepping up to the next class three weeks between runs
DANGERS: 1. *Nonshalaant; 2. *Raise Hell; 7. Pretty Extreme
Likely Tempo: Good
My BET PLAN: SISTER MOON to WIN & Trifecta: 3/1,2,7/1,2,7
*RACE 8 @ 4.50pm ARCHER REAL ESTATE CANBERRA BENCHMARK 55 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. LOUD (Bjorn Baker/Ms Winona Costin; 59.5kg & barrier 1) -We wrap up another big day aboard this improving 3YO Warwick Farm filly by 2012 Group 1 Cox Plate winner Ocean Park who shapes as one of the better bets all day third-up from the inside draw in a very modest race. Went under as a hot favorite resuming in the country before stuck on okay in a much better CL1 here a fortnight ago. Beat a very handy provincial maiden field to cap her first prep last spring, and gets her chance to claim a second win.
DANGERS: 1. *Ribeauville; 8. *Fifty Carats
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: LOUD to WIN
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R5 3. UNIQUE PRINCE** Expect: $3.60 - $3.85; My Early Rating: $2.30
R8 6. LOUD** Expect: $2.75 - $3.00; My Early Rating: $1.95
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R3 5. ELLIE'S DREAM** Expect: $4.25 - $4.70; My Early Rating: $2.60
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R5: Trifecta: 2,3/2,4,3,8/2,3,4,8
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail
#CapitalConnection