Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 20 May 2022
*RACE 1 @ 12.25pm BISON MAIDEN HCP (1000m): - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. COOP'S (Clint Lundholm/Nick Heywood; 57kg & barrier 20) -we kick off with a big field in a competitive and open maiden. Despite drawing the extreme outside, like this Dubbo-based Zariz 3YO at the long-priced value getting to a bigger track 3rd-up. Has found the line okay in the last two behind a couple of handy winners, and rarely does this leading far-western NSW country stable come to Canberra. Senior rider takes over at the right time
DANGERS: 2. *Red Redemption; 3. *Trianon; 4. *Noble Exception; 10. *Deranged; 12. *Flying Mia; 14. *Miss Antwerp
Likely Tempo: Good
My BET PLAN: COOP'S Each Way & First Four: 5,10,12,14/2,3,4,5,10,12,14/2,3,4,5,10,12,14/2,3,4,5,10,12,14
*RACE 2 @ 1.05pm UNDER THE MICROSCOPE BENCHMARK 50 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 56kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. MATTER OF FACTOR (Clint Lundholm/Nick Heywood; 61.5kg & barrier 9) -very tough assessment here across another full field over the short course at a lower benchmark level, with a stack of chances. That said, sticking with the same stable and rider combination at big odds aboard this progressive 5YO mare by US speed sire The Factor. Held her price okay before working home first-up off 14-month absence. Has a stack of room for improvement, destined for much deeper races, and the more the track dries out the better he'll go. Won a BM 58 beating good quality galloper The Snooperstar early autumn last year
DANGERS: 3. *Little Hela; 4. **Surprise Factor; 6. **More To See; 7. *Sestina; 9. *Mooshaka
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My BET PLAN: MATTER OF FACTOR Each Way & Box Exacta: 4,5,6
*RACE 3 @ 1.40pm LEARNING HOW TO CUT ALUMINIUM 3YO & UP CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 7. TEXERRO (Richard Litt/Robbie Dolan; 57.5kg & barrier 10) -now this progressive and lightly raced Warwick Farm-based Pierro 3YO has broken through at his 3rd start, he can go right on with the job here. Set the speed and gave little else a chance at Cowra carting 59kg 17 days ago; and while this is a step up in quality, he's still on the rise and headed for bigger targets. Up in distance gives him plenty of time to work across from the wider gate. The one to beat
DANGERS: 1. *How Do You Sleep; 4. **Prompt Prodigy; 5. *Spats Pav Bowie; 6. **Eyes To Eye
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: TEXERRO Each Way
*RACE 4 @ 2.15pm ACT INTERIORS CLASSIC BENCHMARK 60 HCP (2000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. PENDING (Matthew Smith/Jay Ford; 61kg & barrier 7) -another challenging and open staying contest, but this improving metro 4YO can peak 4th-up off a long break stepping up from the mile trip. Liked the way he's hit the line late in his last two in handy CL1 company, and settling back with cover over this longer journey on a bigger circuit is ideal
DANGERS: 2. *Hilltop Hood; 4. **Loose Love; 7. *Blessed Award
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: PENDING Each Way & Trifecta: 3,4/2,3,4,7/2,3,4,7
*RACE 5 @ 2.50pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. AFFINITY BEYOND (Luke Pepper/Ms Heide Gillie a3kg; 57.5kg & barrier 3) -feature sprint of the day brings plenty of chances to the table headed by this smart and lightly raced 5YO local mare who resumes off a 22-week spell, and opened a country mile over the odds. Has a smart record both fresh and on this course, and the drier the better with all four career wins from 14 starts coming on Good-rated ground. Is by global sprint star Starspangledbanner, and trainer has notably rung the gear changes for the start of a new prep
DANGERS: 1. *Major Time; 2. *The Unknown Factor; 3. **Distillate; 7. **Devine Miss
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My BET PLAN: AFFINITY BEYOND Each Way & Box Exacta 3,4,7
*RACE 6 @ 3.25pm THAT'S A VARIATION BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. IMPORTANT PRODUCT (Kurt Goldman/Nick Heywood; 60.5kg & barrier 10) -good deep race again with plenty of chances. Love the second-up placement here of this progressive country 4YO who can launch from off speed coming back a peg in grade. Loved the way he hit the line late behind iron-like sprinter Fangela in deeper grade at Wagga, and he drew to settle back well off the fence and produce a superior closing 400m. Proven weight carrier also advantaged on a drying track
DANGERS: 1. *Propose A Toast; 3. *Crucial Witness; 6. **Our Last Cash; 8. *Rhapsody In Blue
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: IMPORTANT PRODUCT Each Way & Quinella: 4 and 6
*RACE 7 @ 4.05pm GET THE PLASTERERS TO FIX THAT CLASS 1 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. CUSHY (Joseph Pride/Jay Ford; 61.5kg & barrier 15) -very forgiving of this lightly raced Warwick Farm-based 3YO by Super Easy who can bounce back after floundering first-up in a stronger race on a bog Heavy 10 at Kembla. Will again be forced back from the wide draw, but a likely Soft 5 is his perfect surface, and he can produce a telling final 300m with a clear crack at them from the turn
DANGERS: 2. **Groover; 8. *Rebel Dreamer; 11. *Pandering
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: CUSHY to WIN
*RACE 8 @ 4.40pm COVID RELATED DELAYS MAIDEN PLATE (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. INCENTIVE (Donna Scott/Simon Miller; 59kg & barrier 20) -in a likely open sprint to close the meeting, keen on this emerging Albury 3YO by 2016 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist resuming off a dominant trial win at home in heavy ground. Only previous start was on Australia Day when he showed speed to lead, but was swamped late in quick time, and given time by an astute border stable, he can overcome the outside barrier in exhilarating fashion.
DANGERS: 3. **Nation Pride; 4. *Pokerjack; 5. *Prometio Mas; 7. **Elusive Birdie
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: INCENTIVE to WIN & Box Exacta: 2,3,7
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R5 4. AFFINITY BEYOND*** Expect: $11.00 - $12.00; My Early Rating: $4.25
R8 2. INCENTIVE** Expect: $3.75 - $4.00; My Early Rating: $2.35
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R2 5. MATTER OF FACTOR* Expect: $11.00 - $12.00; My Early Rating: $5.65
R6 4. IMPORTANT PRODUCT** Expect: $6.50 - $7.50; My Early Rating: $4.00
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R4: Trifecta: 3,4/2,3,4,7/2,3,4,7