Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 20 January 2023
*1st Race @ 1.35pm
*Track likely Soft 5 & Rail out +7m (last meeting +3m):
*RACE 1 @ 1.35pm RICKY STUART FOUNDATION BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. BLEUE'S CHOICE (Scott Collings/Ms Alysha Collett; 60.5kg & barrier 1) -We start with a small but very competitive field over the short-course on a track that could well improve back close to a Good 4. Can't go past this tough & fit 5YO by Wandjina who looked ready to win at Moruya eight days ago before being run down in the last few strides. Has sat on speed and run into the placings in four of his last five, & from the inside gate here, can bide his time either in front or right behind, and grab the final shot
DANGERS: 2. **Saiko; 3. *My Girona; 4. *Lily Elsie
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: BLEUE'S CHOICE to WIN & Trifecta 1,2/1,2,4/1,2,3,4
*RACE 2 @ 2.10pm CBR ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS CLASS 1 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. MASTER JOE (Scott Collings/Jeff Penza; 59.5kg & barrier 3) -Another small line-up over the 5 furlongs should be a procession 3rd-up for this high speed & lightly raced 5YO from the same Goulburn stable as the previous race. Led all the way resuming before boxing on strong from the front at Wagga 15 days ago. Obviously less depth here, and with blinkers replacing winkers, he can control this from barrier to box
DANGERS: 4. **Kimberley Secrets
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My BET PLAN: MASTER JOE to WIn & Quinella: 1 and 4
*RACE 3 @ 2.45pm MOORE QUALITY HOMES CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. SPITFIRE (Matthew Dale/Billy Owen; 59kg & barrier 3) -Naturally more depth in this one over the mile. Like this progressive 4YO by Pierro staying at the distance 5th-up in his first full prep. Fought on well in smarter provincial company two runs ago before taking a long time to overhaul his maiden rivals at Albury when looking to have the race in his keeping a long way from home. Takes the next step with superior ability and scope to anything else in the race, and draws to get a nice trail
DANGERS: 1. *How Do You Sleep; 3. *Stylebender; 4. *Desi Emperor; 7. *Arch Of Titus
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: SPITFIRE to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 3.25pm A.B.E. FIRE PROTECTION MAIDEN PLATE (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. DANCING ALONE (Bryce Heys/Ms Alysha Collett; 55.5kg & barrier 2) -Clear on top is this metropolitan-based 3YO filly by prolific sire I Am Invincible coming through two strong & progressive trials, winning the latest in slick time at Warwick Farm. Draws to get a lovely run, and it looms as her race to lose
DANGERS: 3. *Prometio Mas; 6. **Frose
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: DANCING ALONE to WIN & Quinella: 5 & 6
*RACE 5 @ 4.04pm MARKO NAZOR MEMORIAL BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. BEL SUONO (Matthew Smith/Jeff Penza; 58kg & barrier 6) -Back out to the mile for a battle with some depth, and no reason why this tough front-running 5YO mare can't make it 2 straight. Chased home well in a handy BM 58 at Moruya two runs ago before being taken to the front and giving nothing else a chance when stepping up to this distance in a CL3. Right on a prep & fitness peak, and looks very fairly treated at the weights
DANGERS: 2. **You Are King; 5. *Tip Top Timing
Likely Tempo: Fair
My BET PLAN: BEL SUONO to WIN & Quinella: 2 and 6
*RACE 6 @ 4.44pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. EMMA'S GIFT (Keith Dryden/Ms Alysha Collett; 61.5kg & barrier 4) -Small and tactical field again for the feature sprint, and confident this smart local 5YO mare can repeat the dose for us again from an ideal trailing draw off the fence. Has built an impressive record here at home, winning her last three, none better than this race over 1000m just 9 days ago when she overcame a big betting drift and trouble in the run to charge over the top late. Up to a career high 61.5kg, but she's a tough & proven weight carrier, with the best turn of foot in the race
DANGERS: 1. *Secretively; 5. *All Formidable; 6. **Twig
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: EMMA'S GIFT to WIN & Trifecta: 2,6/1,2,5,6/1,2,5,6
*RACE 7 @ 5.20pm ALLIANCE BUILDING GROUP (ACT) 2YO HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. GANBARE (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Ms Winona Costin; 57kg & barrier 2) -Tricky & intriguing affair here for the babies, with two city raiders likely to fight it out. Settled on this Randwick-based colt by Maurice who makes his debut off 2 recent trials, winning the latest narrowly in strong fashion. Naturally bred to go further, and gets the right run from the low draw
DANGERS: 1. **Make A Call; 2. *Chasing A Quid
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: GANBARE to WIN
*RACE 8 @ 5.55pm NORTH CANBERRA BEAR BAR (NORTHIES) MAIDEN HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. VELLA MAGIC (Gratz Vella/Billy Owen; 57.5kg & barrier 4) -Handy quality maiden to finish. Hard to see this tough home track 5YO by Magic Albert getting rolled over an ideal trip 5th-up, and importantly with blinkers added. Has placed in her last four, each time settling on or near the speed, and sticking on well in bunched finishes. Ready to peak now from a close trailing draw, and significantly much stronger jockey takes the ride
DANGERS: 6. **Witness To Love; 7. *Breakaway Week
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My BET PLAN: VELLA MAGIC to WIN & Quinella: 4 and 6
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R2 1. MASTER JOE** Expect: $2.35 - $2.60; My Early Rating: $1.80
R3 2. SPITFIRE** Expect: $3.25 - $3.40; My Early Rating: $2.20
R7 4. GANBARE** Expect: $3.25 - $3.40; My Early Rating: $2.12
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R6 2. EMMA'S GIFT* Expect: $4.25 - $4.40; My Early Rating: $2.70
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R4: **QUINELLA 5 & 6
R5: **QUINELLA: 2 & 6
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail