Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 2 September 2022
*1st Race @ 1.05pm
*Track likely Soft 6 & Rail True (+10m last meeting):
*RACE 1 @ 1.05pm SYNDICATE PLUMBING GROUP BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. SUPER VIEW (Matthew Kelley/Quayde Krogh; 58.5kg & barrier 5 -We start with a tactical battle over the mile on a surface that can improve closer to Soft 6. Prepared to stick solid with this tough home track 4YO despite being flat in the run home here a fortnight ago. Slightly thinner battle; and getting on to soft ground as opposed to Heavy 9, and back 400m to his preferred distance; are big pluses. Prior to that failure had won both starts at this track, and suspect he'll push closer to the lead this time from a low gate and prove hard to stop
DANGERS: 2. *Lawyer's Delight; 3. *Sandastan; 6. **The Pres
Likely Tempo: Fair
My BET PLAN: SUPER VIEW to WIN & Trifecta: 5,6/2,3,5,6/2,3,5,6
*RACE 2 @ 1.40pm RYSON DETAILED JOINERY CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. BUFF IN DISGUISE (Ron Leemon/Jeff Penza; 56.5kg & barrier 4) -Very tricky affair with some unreliable staying form across this group, but leaning clearly to this metropolitan 5YO who is bred to stay, and can peak 4th-up getting up to an ideal distance. Ran home strongly over a shorter trip three runs back before losing the rider at Forbes; then failed to run home in a deeper provincial maiden, although not suited from the inside draw that day. Is by top UK sire and multiple Group winner Dandino who beat all but Fawkner in the 2013 Caulfield Cup, and the long run home here is right up his alley
DANGERS: 1. *Kataway; 2. **Layla Of Monaco; 3. *Successful Star
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: BUFF IN DISGUISE to WIN & Trifecta: 2,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4
*RACE 3 @ 2.15pm SPECIALISED FORKLIFT SERVICES MAIDEN HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 8. FIREFLIES (John O'Shea/Reece Jones a0kg; 55kg & barrier 16) -Testing maiden here & punters could try several in the race. Like this Randwick-based 3YO Not A Single Doubt filly despite drawing the outside barrier on debut in a field of 14. Looks to have ability, and fitted for this with three controlled trials in handy company up to 1045m, and this stable combination doesn't combine overly often around this region. Important gear additions have been made
DANGERS: 1. *Santorini Sun; 3. *Surfers Royale; 13. *Miss Boom Boom; 14. *Zarinya
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: FIREFLIES to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 2.55pm QUEANBEYAN LEAGUES CLUB BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. SHADDY (Anthony Warren/Jeff Penza; 60.5kg & barrier 4) -Hard fit and finding the right soft track map, this tough Goulburn 5YO can overturn the early hot favourite, and finally return to the winner's stall. Was just even through the line in consecutive runs at home before missing by a long head in a slightly thinner race on the South Coast carrying 1kg more. Well experienced on rain-affected going, and should appreciate a moderate tempo. Beat all bar the winner at this track in May over the same journey in deeper BM 65 grade
DANGERS: 1. **Allgemeine; 6. *Yesterday's Gone; 7. *Cartography
Likely Tempo: Fair to Moderate
My BET PLAN: SHADDY Each Way & Trifecta: 1,2/1,2,6,7/1,2,6,7
*RACE 5 @ 3.35pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 7. EMMA'S GIFT (Keith Dryden/Ms Alysha Collett; 56kg & barrier 4) -The feature Federal sprint stacks up nicely for this improving 5YO home track mare 2nd-up. Tracked the speed in a handy CL3 when resuming at Moruya before diving late to only miss by a neck, and importantly stays at the same weight and trip coming back to home base. Was in the placings three straight BM 65 runs here before spelling, and continues to build a tidy record on rain-affected ground. Can settle just off the speed with a trail and sweep over the top late
DANGERS: 3. **Smuggler's Bay; 4. *Feel The Knight
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: EMMA'S GIFT to WIN & Quinella: 3 and 7
*RACE 6 @ 4.10pm HOWELL TRAFFIC SERVICES MAIDEN PLATE (1400m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 8. CONDREAU (James Ponsonby/Ms Winona Costin; 57kg & barrier 7) -Always had time for this well-travelled 4YO mare by Territories who has been raced sparingly since switching from Victoria in autumn. Since then has mixed form across four runs in provincial and country grades, although at times unlucky not to have broken through. Has been given six weeks since dropping out in much tougher maiden company at Wyong, and reloads here back to a more suitable distance, and crucially with blinkers on for the first time
DANGERS: 6. **Burgundy Girl; 12. *Watch Me Nae Nae
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: CONDREAU to WIN & Quinella: 6 and 8
*RACE 7 @ 4.45pm DAWSON HEATING & COOLING CLASS 1 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. GET SHAFTED (Lynn Morrison/Jeff Penza; 57.5kg & barrier 5) -Competitive contest with good depth and a few chances, but very keen on this Moruya-based 5YO dropping back from tougher Highway grade, and crucially getting off a heavy surface and into soft range. Hit the line hard from the back under bigger weights in consecutive CL1s on the South Coast before tackling a Highway at Rosehill where he made up late ground coming from last after being tried in betting at a double figure price. Gear changes have been made, senior rider takes over, and looks one of the better weighted runners all day back in this class
DANGERS: 1. *Hauteur; 4. *Flying Mia; 6. *Super Riff
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: GET SHAFTED to WIN
*RACE 8 @ 5.20pm RACING & SPORTS MAIDEN PLATE (1000m): Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. SHEILA (Matthew Dale/Nick Heywood; 57kg & barrier 5) -Very handy maiden sprint to finish. This well-touted 4YO local mare by 2014 Cox Plate winner Adelaide has had to bide her time because of wash-outs, and reloads for her debut after Thursday's Albury meeting was abandoned. Impressed with a heavy track trial win just over three weeks ago, and drawn to sit just off the speed and away from the fence, with a senior country jockey aboard
DANGERS: 1. *La Mia Via; 3. *Mrs Gloop; 8. **Welcome Gypsy; 15 **Overthrow
Likely Tempo: Good
My BET PLAN: SHEILA Each Way & Trifecta: 4,8,15/1,3,4,8,15/1,3,4,8,15
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R7 3. GET SHAFTED*** Expect: $4.25 - $4.75; My Early Rating: $2.45
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R5 7. EMMA'S GIFT* Expect: $4.75 - $5.00; My Early Rating: $3.20
R6 8. CONDREAU* Expect: $5.75 - $6.00; My Early Rating: $4.00
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R6: Quinella: 6 & 8
R8: Trifecta: 4,8,15/1,3,4,8,15/1,3,4,8,15