Cracking Canberra Preview - Neil Evans
1st Race at 1.04pm
Track likely Soft 5 and Rail True so fairly even pattern before a late trend wider
*RACE 1 @ 1.04pm CANPRINT COMMUNICATIONS PLATE (1000m) - Maiden; Set Weights & apprentices can claim):
We start with the maidens at set weights over the short course, and local 3YO filly 5. MANILA THRILLER (Keith Dryden/Blaike McDougall; 57kg) looks ready to break through second-up from the inside draw. Picked up where she left off last prep finishing well to beat all but the winner in a deeper maiden, and jockey is right in the zone.
MAIN DANGERS: Warwick Farm 3YO filly 6. ONE LAST FIGHT is the obvious threat after being run down as a hot favourite at Bathurst second start, and also draws to get a gun run. Big watch on Goulburn 2YO 8. SPICY RESTAURANT who has been freshened and importantly gelded since a fair effort in the Group 3 Black Opal here nearly two months back, and has since trialled well. Expect sharp improvement first run back from another Warwick Farm 3YO 2. HINVICTUS whose had two quiet lead-up trials, and will find this easier.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: MANILA THRILLER to Win + QUINELLA 5 and 6
*RACE 2 @ 1.39pm JOHN MCGRATH AUTO GROUP HCP (2000m) - BenchMark 60; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Now for the stayers in what should be a tactical and competitive battle. Home track 4YO mare 6. LARMOUR (Nick Olive/Tyler Schiller; 58.5kg; a1.5kg) takes on a slightly tougher grade third-up, but loved the way she hit the line at Orange in handy BM 58. Looking for this trip now, drawn to settle around midfield with a trail, and after rider's claim will carry 9kg less than the top-weight.
MAIN DANGERS: Progressive 4YO Randwick gelding 1. MAYBACH has the most scope of any runner and can peak third-up, but has to carry a huge leveller of 66kg. Drops in grade after sticking on okay leading in a BM 70 at Canterbury second-up, but will need a soft run lumping this weight on a bigger track. Randwick 4YO gelding 4. TYRRHENNIEN will appreciate stepping up to this trip third-up after doing his best work late in a BM 64 at Gosford.
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Fair
My Betting Attack: LARMOUR to WIN + QUINELLA 1 and 6
*RACE 3 @ 2.14pm XXXX GOLD PLATE (1600m) - Class 1; Set Weights 3YO's & Up & apprentices can claim:
Keen on 5YO Goulburn gelding 5. OUTAHAND (John Bateman/Shaun Guymer; 59kg) with the blinkers going on fourth-up. Didn't run on in a tougher CL1 at Wagga last start, but previous form was rock solid from off the speed, and he draws to get an ideal trail.
MAIN DANGERS: Improving 3YO Warwick Farm gelding 8 TWILIGHT SUN is well placed getting to the mile third-up and down a little in weight. Got back from an inside draw at Goulburn and finished off well, but even better suited on this track. Warwick Farm 3YO filly 9. ROCQUETTE is another who likes to drift back and finish hard, and will also relish the bigger track after hitting the line from a long way back in a BM 58 at Nowra. Big market watch on 4YO Goulburn gelding 6. TCHAIKOVSKY who hasn't started for nearly a year, and no public trial. Showed plenty as a 3YO in the spring of 2018 finishing down the track in the Group 1 Golden Rose behind super colt The Autumn Sun so no doubting the ability, and stable has changed up the gear and renowned for getting them ready off long breaks over any trip. Expect improvement from local 5YO gelding 4. OLD TRAFFORD after four runs back.
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Even
My Betting Attack: OUTAHAND to Win + Box Exacta 5,8,9
*RACE 4 @ 2.49pm TAB FEDERAL HCP (1600m) - BenchMark 70; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Still at the mile for the feature race of the day, and it's a small but talented field. Consistent 5YO Canberra mare 7. ROSEBANK (Luke Pepper/Ms Amy McLucas, 57kg; a3kg) hasn't missed a place in last five, and won two of her last three, including a dominant last-start BM 58 win at Goulburn. Supremely in at the weights after rider's full claim, and she can roll forward to either sit on the speed or just off.
MAIN DANGERS: Home track 4YO mare 3. LOLITA GOLD has been up for a while, and not far away in both the Gundagai and Murrumbidgee Cups, and suited dropping back in trip bouncing out from a low draw. Another locally-trained mare, 5YO 4. SWEET KNUCKLE exploded back on the scene off a six month break powering home to win a BM 65 here. Boasts an even smarter second-up record, only query is inside draw and cooler tempo may not suit her run-on pattern. Watch the betting on 5YO Queanbeyan gelding 6. HILLTOP HOOD who has had one plain run back from a lengthy spell, but three of her four career wins have come second-up, and won at this track over 2000m last spring.
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Good
My Betting Attack: ROSEBANK to Win
*RACE 5 @ 3.24pm CANBERRA REX HOTEL HCP (1300m) - Maiden; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim):
Tricky and thinner affair, with several chances. Improving 3YO Randwick filly 2. AQUEOUS (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Ms Winona Costin; 58kg) will be hard to run down if she can control things up front. Was only collared late on debut at Nowra, and much fitter here.
MAIN DANGERS: Warwick Farm 3YO filly 7. CHEEKY MONKEY was just behind Aqueous in that same maiden at Nowra at third start, and racing like the bigger track over more ground will suit. Expect good improvement from 2YO Warwick Farm colt 3. CORDYCEPS MIRACLE who gets the blinkers on third-up, and will find this easier than recent metro opposition. Local 3YO gelding 5. MOSSY OAK has done his best work late in three runs so far, and expect him to again be running on late over a little further; while home track 4YO mare 9. PSYCHOA will also appreciate the rise in distance after two fair closing runs to start her career.
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Good
My Betting Attack: AQUEOUS to Win + Trifecta/First Four: 2,3,7/2,3,5,7,9/2,3,5,7,9
*RACE 6 @ 3.59pm TAB LONG MAY WE PLAY HCP (1200m) - BenchMark 65; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Good quality sprint, with a few hopes. Home track 5YO mare 3. TERRA REIGN (Matt Dale/Blaike McDougall; 60.5kg) has been a shade disappointing in his last couple against stronger after a dominant BM 65 win here four runs back. Up sharply in weight, but will find this easier, and drop back to 1200m is a big plus.
MAIN DANGERS: Loved the way 5YO Warwick Farm gelding 1. MORALIST found the line to win a BM 60 here well into the prep, although drawn wide and this is a bit tougher. Queanbeyan 4YO gelding 2. CONCRETE has been banging on the door for a while, and will improve getting back on firmer footing after a battling effort in the heavy at Wagga when easy in betting; while 6YO Canberra gelding 4. TRUMBO can be hard to catch, winning a BM 66 at Gundagai two back before dropping out in similar grade here last start.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Good
My Betting Attack: TERRA REIGN to Win
*RACE 7 @ 4.34pm HYGAIN HCP (1400m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
This looms as a two-horse war to close the meeting. Warwick Farm 3YO filly 5. MOWANJUM (Gary Portelli/Ms Kathy O'Hara; 57kg) resumes off a nice solid trial, and was consistent enough in stronger provincial company over middle distances last prep. Can settle around midfield and charge late.
MAIN DANGERS: Promising and lightly-raced 3YO local filly 8. TEMOIN CHAUD is the clear threat. Impressed at only second start sweeping home to win her maiden at Orange, and looks even better suited on the bigger track over more ground with blinkers going on. Be surprised if anything else wins, but expect improvement fourth-up from 5YO Warwick Farm mare 1. CAPPAMORE down in grade and back in trip; while 3YO Kembla filly 10. FOXY FREE draws to get a soft run and is best of the rest.
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Good
My Betting Attack: MOWANJUM to Win + Quinella 5 and 8
My BEST BETS
R3 5. OUTAHAND**
R5 2. AQUEOUS*
R6 3. TERRA REIGN*
My BEST VALUE
R2 6. LARMOUR*
R7 5. MOWANJUM**
JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:
Blaike McDougall
Ms Winona Costin
TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Nick Olive
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail
CANBERRA RACING
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