Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 19 August 2022
*1st Race @ 12.30pm
*Track likely Heavy 8/9 & Rail out +10m (+7m last meeting):
*RACE 1 @ 12.30pm PAC CARPENTRY & JOINERY BENCHMARK 65 HCP (2000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 7. THE PRES (John Rolfe/TBA; 55.5kg & barrier 3) -Like this underrated home track 5YO who comes off a string of tough efforts, and is well placed to break a long run out of the winner's circle. Placed in four straight runs on rain-affected ground up to BM 64 level before didn't get a lot go his way in a handy BM 58 at Goulburn, although still finished off well. Gets out to this longer journey at the right time, and the rise in class is more than off-set by a significant 3.5kg weight drop. Drawn to get plenty of cover off-speed for a stable having a good run, and blinkers going back on is a further pointer
DANGERS: 3. *Epizeel; 4. *Loafing; 5. **Super View; 8. *Zarafah
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: THE PRES to WIN & Trifecta & First Four: 5,7/3,4,5,7,8/3,4,5,7,8
*RACE 2 @ 1.06pm INFINITE JOINERY CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. GAMBACORTA (Nick Olive/Billy Owen; 59kg & barrier 5) -Very keen on this progressive & lightly raced local 5YO who can go back-to-back 4th-up. After sticking on okay from just off the speed two runs back; was taken to the front at Gundagai 18 days ago, and held the challengers at bay in a maiden with more than handy depth. This isn't much harder, and he should be able to get a cosy enough run up front, and be saved for a big final 400m kick
DANGERS: 5. **King Charles; 6. *Crazy Ladies; 8. *Majestic Lilly
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: GAMBACORTA to WIN & Quinella: 3 & 5
*RACE 3 @ 1.41pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. KELVEDON ROAD (Todd Smart/Billy Owen; 60kg & barrier 5) -Now for a good quality Federal feature; & very much with this high class resuming 4YO trained on the track, & maps well enough off-speed for his first run in 19 weeks. Won 2 straight including the Guineas Preview here back in late summer before a fair closing effort in the Guineas, and then outclassed in much tougher Group 3 company at Randwick. Still lightly raced, and was strong through the line in a recent heavy track country trial. Doesn't have to settle too far back behind only a fair speed to produce that telling finish
DANGERS: 2. *Nieces And Nephews; 3. *Easy Rosie; 6. *Exotic Deal; 7. *Hauteur
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: KELVEDON ROAD to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 2.16pm HARVEY NORMAN COMMERCIAL CLASS 1 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. DREAM GAME (Matthew Dale/Jay Ford; 59.5kg & barrier 7) -Expecting this emerging 4YO by Dream Ahead to go right on with the job after an eye-catching 1st-up maiden win at Moruya carrying only a half kilo less. Had to work across to the breeze from a wide gate that day but responded well early in the straight to hold off all the chasers comfortably. With that improved fitness and right at home on rain-affected ground, he's the one to beat in a race of little depth
DANGERS: 4. *Encyclopedia; 5. *Murkowski
Likely Tempo: Fair
My BET PLAN: DREAM GAME to WIN & Quinella: 3 and 5
*RACE 5 @ 2.51pm CKC JOINERY & STONE MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 8. FALREINE (Neil Osborne/Molly Bourke a2kg; 55kg & barrier 6) -this honest 5YO mare by Choisir has seemingly been banging on the door since late autumn, but gets her chance here to break through at 11th attempt. Stuck on well from just off the speed in a stronger maiden at Grafton two runs back before again working home okay after covering ground behind a smart winner at Pt Macquarie. Carries her lightest weight in a while, and has a 50 percent place record from just 10 starts
DANGERS: 1. *Fox Valley; 4. *La Mia Via; 13. *Redhair'n'freckles
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: FALREINE to WIN
*RACE 6 @ 3.26pm TURNERS BUILDING SUPPLIES BENCHMARK 50 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. THE BURNING (Keith Dryden/Jeff Penza; 61kg & barrier 9) -Tricky battle in moderate grade here, with several chances. It's been a long time since that maiden win, but this improving home track 5YO has really put the writing on the wall in his last two. Did his best work late at big odds in a much stronger race here two starts back before again hitting the line from well off the speed in a CL1 run on a Heavy 8. Back up in weight for this, but experienced jockey sticks, and veteran trainer has made some key gear changes, including blinkers coming off
DANGERS: 2. **Willybeafactor; 3. **Newtown Braveheart; 5. *Titan Star
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My BET PLAN: THE BURNING Each Way & Box Exacta: 2,3,4
*RACE 7 @ 4.03pm BENCHMARC BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 9. YESTERDAY'S GONE (Keith Dryden/Damon Budler a1.5kg; 57kg & barrier 9) -Plenty of chances again in an open & deep sprint for this class. Really liked the 1st-up win of this progressive local 5YO mare who settled well off the speed before ploughing home to win with a little in reserve. Beat the stablemate and on-top selection from the previous race, so banking on a nice little form reference coming our way, and again she should get enough speed on through suitable ground to launch over the top. Like the decision to keep her at the short course, given that was her first run in 23 weeks, and is fairly weighted after the rider's 1.5kg claim, Well over the odds!
DANGERS: 1. **Tells Tails; 2. *No Statement; 3. **Chiranjeev; 9. *Yesterday's Gone; 12. *Dehero
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: YESTERDAY'S GONE Each Way & Trifecta: 1,3,9/1,2,3,9,12/1,2,3,9,12
*RACE 8 @ 4.43pm CAPITAL VENEERING MAIDEN PLATE (1300m): Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 9. NOBEL (Annabel Neasham/Jean Van Overmeire; 56.5kg & barrier 15) -We close the meeting with a competitive maiden at set weights. Very hard to go past this talented & progressive metro 3YO who can strike 2nd-up,with blinkers being added. Not beaten far in a deeper provincial maiden 1st-up for 4 months, and looks supremely treated over 100m further carrying half kilo less. Drawn the outside barrier but that will probably be the place to be late in the day, & bred to thrive on wet tracks
DANGERS: 5. *Kamea; 7. *She's Jessie; 12. *Mrs Patmore
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: NOBEL to WIN
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R3 4. KELVEDON ROAD** Expect: $2.50 - $2.75; My Early Rating: $1.95
R8 9. NOBEL* Expect: $2.45 - $2.60; My Early Rating: $2.00
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R6 4. THE BURNING** Expect: $7.00 - $8.00; My Early Rating: $4.65
R7 9. YESTERDAY'S GONE** Expect: $10.00 - $11.00; My Early Rating: $5.10
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R7: Trifecta: 1,3,9/1,2,3,9,12/1,2,3,9,12
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail