Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 16 September 2022

*1st Race @ 12.40pm

*Track likely Heavy 8/9 & Rail out 3m (True last meeting):

 

*RACE 1 @ 12.40pm WATSON BLINDS BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 2. CHALKLEY (Mark de Montfort/Robbie Brewer; 60kg & barrier 9) -We start with a competitive and fairly open sprint over the short course on what will be a heavy surface across big fields. This tough and still underrated metropolitan 5YO is ready to win only for the 2nd time deep into the current prep. Stuck on very well after leading at Bathurst two starts ago before chasing home a smart galloper into a place in a handy CL1 field. Well up to this level now, and has done most of his racing on rain-affected ground. Has more than enough tactical speed to off-set the wide draw

 

DANGERS: 1. **Emma's Gift; 3. *Song Cycle; 5. **Diamond City; 6. *Yesterday's Gone

 

Likely Tempo: Good

My BET PLAN: CHALKLEY Each Way & Trifecta: 1,2,5/1,2,3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6

 

*RACE 2 @ 1.20pm AUSSIE BUGGY ADVENTURES MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 2.  I'M NOT LEAVING (Rob Potter/ Damon Budler a0kg; 58kg & barrier 9) -Plenty of chances in this moderate maiden as well, headed by this lightly raced home track 4YO by Trust In A Gust who starts his second prep off a nice trial win on the South Coast. Was considered good enough to tackle stronger maiden opposition in two autumn runs, and given time he's ready to return a stronger sprinter

 

DANGERS: 4. *Clymene; 5. *Chilean Express; 6. **La Mia Via

 

Likely Tempo: Good

My BET PLAN: I'M NOT LEAVING to WIn & Quinella: 2 and 6

 

*RACE 3 @ 1.55pm PACIFIC FACILITIES MAINTENANCE PTY LTD BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 1. THINK GLORY (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Ms Louise Day; 61kg & barrier 10) -Despite the big weight, the step back up to this distance 2nd-up is the key for this capable 5YO metropolitan mare from a leading stable. Campaigned well through deeper races in Qld last prep before spelling; then worked home okay first-up on the synthetic in a BM 58 at Ballarat. Untried in heavy, but bred to handle it being by dual Cox Plate winner So You Think out of a Redoute's Choice mare; & just needs to find some cover off the fence to finish over the top

 

DANGERS: 3. *Elisio; 5. *Squiggles; 6. *Big Steve

 

Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable 

My BET PLAN: THINK GLORY to WIN

 

*RACE 4 @ 2.35pm BRINDABELLA STOCKFEEDS BENCHMARK 65 HCP (2000m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 11. SUCCESSFUL STAR (Jarrod Austin/Ms Winona Costin; 56.5kg & barrier 2) -Despite a decent step up in grade, hard to believe this genuine 4YO metropolitan mare opened at such a big price. Had been mixing form across the provincials before quickening nicely from just off the speed to win a CL1 here a fortnight back. Again draws to sit right behind the speed & handles the wet over this sort of trip. Well over the odds

 

DANGERS: 3. *Brainzes; 6. *Price Of Tokyo; 9. **Essential Sky; 10. *The Pres

 

Likely Tempo: Fair

My BET PLAN: SUCCESSFUL STAR Each Way & Trifecta: 9,11/3,6,9,10,11/3,6,9,10,11

 

*RACE 5 @ 3.10pm CE CONSTRUCTION SOLUTIONS MAIDEN PLATE  (1300m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 8. IN MY FEELINGS (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Ms Louise Day; 57kg & barrier 3) -Back to the maidens for the most open race of the day, with a stack of chances. I'm not the biggest form fan of runners coming straight off the synthetic, but this lightly raced and improving mare is knocking on the door, and looks well placed from an ideal cover draw. Hasn't missed a place in his last three in Victoria, hitting the line from generally well off the speed; and his pattern suggests the long run home here will suit. By Manhattan Rain out of a Rubiton mare so should handle the conditions, and can cut loose from a midfield position around the 450m

 

DANGERS: 6. *Tycoon Charger; 7 **Autissier; 9. *Miss Capella; 13. **Loveyoulikealovesong

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My BET PLAN: IN MY FEELINGS Each Way & First Four: 7,8,10,13/6,7,8,9,10,13/6,7,8,9,10,13/6,7,8,9,10,13

 

*RACE 6 @ 3.45pm JOHN McGRATH AUTO GROUP CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 8. FLYING WITNESS (Annabel Neasham/Shaun Guymer; 57kg & barrier 13)  -Very keen on this 4YO Warwick Farm-based mare who can peak 3rd-up coming through superior formlines. Worked home solidly from just off the speed 1st-up at Wyong before doing her best work late behind the place-getters in a stronger BM 72 metro race, and the 2nd horse from that race went within a  whisker of winning at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. First time in heavy going, but bred to thrive being by Star Witness, and given she has solid form over much further, nothing will be hitting the line better over this trip

 

DANGERS: 6. *Burgundy Girl; 7. *Flying Mia; 10. **Hallowed Son; 14. *Armalite

 

Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid

My BET PLAN: FLYING WITNESS to WIN

 

*RACE 7 @ 4.25pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 1. ISLAND BAY BOY (Tony Sergi/TBA; 63kg & barrier 13) -Now for the feature race, and typically there are plenty of hopes, especially with the early favorite coming up too short. Drawn to stay out of trouble in suitably rain-affected ground off a smart trial is a handy combined recipe for this good class Queanbeyan 5YO to pounce 1st-up at big odds, despite carrying a big weight. Hasn't raced since mid May when coming through a solid campaign against deeper opposition, and normally comes to hand early enough. Suspect he'll work across from the wide barrier and sit midfield before given his head at the 400m to run them down

 

DANGERS: 4. **Ten Bells; 7. *Exotic Deel; 10. **Allgemeine

 

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My BET PLAN: ISLAND BAY BOY Each Way & Box Exacta 1,4,10

 

*RACE 8 @ 5.05pm QUEANBEYAN PRE-MIX CONCRETE CLASS 1 HCP (1200m): Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 2. HOW DO YOU SLEEP (Garry Kirkup/Jeff Penza; 59kg & barrier 4) -Tough restricted sprint to finish, although it shapes up nicely for this local 5YO who can pounce 1st-up. Came to hand quickly last prep in autumn, getting home late in a good quality maiden before sitting closer and bolting in his next start over this same journey. Raced up to the mile before spelling, drawn to get cover back in the field, and bred to handle the going being by late great wet track sire Sebring

 

DANGERS: 5. *Newtown Braveheart; 11. *Belleistic Kids; 14. *Lady Tabloid; 

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My BET PLAN: HOW DO YOU SLEEP Each Way

 

**My BEST EARLY BETS:

 

R3 1. THINK GLORY** Expect: $4.25 - $4.40; My Early Rating: $2.36

R6 8. FLYING WITNESS* Expect: $2.25 - $2.50; My Early Rating: $2.00

 

**My BEST EARLY VALUE:

 

R8 1. HOW DO YOU SLEEP** Expect: $6.50 - $7.50; My Early Rating: $4.00

 

**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:

 

 R7: Box Exacta 1,4,10

 

GOOD LUCK

@NeilEvansmail