Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 15 April 2022
*RACE 1 @ 1.10pm MAXINE MITCHELL - WORKSFORYOU MAIDEN HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. TEXERRO (Richard Litt/Jack Martin; 59kg & barrier 2) - Impressed with the debut run of this metro-based Pierro 3YO who can go one better after working home nicely here on debut. Had previously been a strong & consistent performer at the trials, and the extra 200m from a soft draw is a natural plus for a gelding who should get out to the mile sooner rather than later. The one to beat
DANGERS: 3. **Bionic; 4. *Niccolina; 5. *Miss Adrenalin
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: TEXERRO to WIN
*RACE 2 @ 1.45pm MARK PAINE LANDSCAPING MAIDEN PLATE (1400m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. NOBLE EXCEPTION (Nick Olive/Brodie Loy; 58.5kg & barrier 6) -Tricky maiden with some depth, although this improving and lightly raced home track 3YO colt represents good value 2nd-up. Was hard enough in the market when leading and then swamped first-up of a six month break. Fitter now under the same weight and trip, and only missed narrowly at only previous second-up run in a handy maiden
*DANGERS: 5. **Vaaroom; 10. **Deranged; 11. *Espadrille; 12. *Gravy Train Magpie
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: NOBLE EXCEPTION Each Way & Trifecta: 4,5,10/4,5,10,11,12/4,5,10,11,12
*RACE 3 @ 2.20pm OLIVER A.T MITCHELL CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. EYES TO EYE (Richard & Will Freedman/Mitchell Bell; 57.5kg & barrier 7) -Up in trip for a competitive battle with a few strong chances headed by this progressive Tivaci 3YO who is ready to strike 4th-up in only his second prep. Held his ground okay in consecutive deeper provincial CL1s before hitting the line in a handy BM 64 at Goulburn over the mile. The drier track and step up to this distance are two big factors, and he can settle just off the speed and work home supremely from the 600m
*DANGERS: 4. *Bacio Del Mist; 6. **Funambulist; 12. *Sky Ace
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: EYES TO EYE to WIN & Quinella: 3 and 6
*RACE 4 @ 2.55pm WORKSFORYOU CANBERRA BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. NEPHRADIVA (Nick Olive/Brodie Loy; 57kg & barrier 4) -Good tactical sprint this one, with a few involved who will go on to win better races. The gate and speed map has me leaning towards this lightly raced local Winning Rupert filly who resumes off a near six month spell. Has sidestepped a few wet tracks of late, and gets a firming surface here, with off-side blinkers added. Went off the boil quickly in her first prep, but her debut win at Albury by more than 4 lengths over 900m as a hot favourite can't be ignored and she's ready to rock nice and fresh
and
DANGERS: 1. *Zelago; 4. **Flying Annie; 9. *Hayyu
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My BET PLAN: NEPHRADIVA to WIN & Quinella: 4 and 6
*RACE 5 @ 3.30pm WORKSFORYOU WAGGA BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. REAL PEACE (Clarry Connors/Brock Ryan; 59kg & barrier 8) Wide open battle over the mile, with most having been up for a long while. One of them is this metro 4YO who has only been sparingly race over the last couple of months, and comes through superior form-lines. Wasn't far away in tough and consecutive metro BM 72 races before failing in a provincial BM 64 nine weeks ago. Trainer immediately backed him off before a quiet trial three weeks ago, and then a much improved effort behind in-form Fourmadec carrying 62kg. Carries 3kg less here, and likes dry ground
DANGERS: 4. *Mookarena; 5. *Denmiss; 6. *Dragon's Shadow; 7. *Mercury; 10. *Vanilla Sky
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: REAL PEACE Each Way & First Four: 3,7,10/3,4,5,6,7,10/3,4,5,6,7,10/3,4,5,6,7,10
*RACE 6 @ 4.05pm WORKSFORYOU AUSTRALIA CLASS 2 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. CIRCULARITY (Richard & Will Freedman/Mitchell Bell; 61kg & barrier 8) -Plenty of chances in this one as well back over a sprint trip. Despite a jump in weight, this progressive Scone 4YO is ready to win again 4th-up in a prep where he's hasn't been overtaxed. Was a smart CL1 country winner resuming before outclassed in Highway grade, then returned off a six week let-up to hit the line nicely under a length from the winner in a similar grade at Muswellbrook in heavy ground. Significantly, both wins from 10 starts have come on dry ground, and with the weather clear he'll get the perfect surface to roll across just off the speed, and produce a telling final 400m
DANGERS: 2. *All Formidable; 3. **King Gutho; 4. *Mascherata
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: CIRCULARITY to WIN
*RACE 7 @ 4.40pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. DEVIL'S TRIANGLE (Matthew Dale/Nick Heywood; 59.5kg & barrier 3) - Feature race of the day & not getting off this very progressive locally-trained 4YO mare who shoots for back-to-back wins, and four overall from only nine starts. Was terrific three runs back closing well to beat all bar headline horse Shelby Sixtysix in a Randwick Hwy before disappointing when looming to win a CL2 here a month back. Put the record straight back in the "Big Smoke" finishing best from midfield to claim a stronger BM 72 at Canterbury in heavy ground, and still looks reasonably well treated back at home under 59.5kg from a suitable trailing gate. Only concern is her best form has come on wet tracks, but she's destined for higher grades, and owns the best final 400m in the race
DANGERS: 5. *Milamoo; 7. **Smuggler's Run; 9. Miss *Ostend
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: DEVIL'S TRIANGLE to WIN & Trifecta: 4,7/4,5,7,9/4,5,7,9
*RACE 8 @ 5.15pm ANDY "COL" STANHAM - WORKSFORYOU CLASS 1 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. LOOSE LOVE (Todd Smart; Jeff Penza; 57.5kg & barrier 4) - Good quality race for this grade to finish, and it stacks up well for this local and underrated Turn Me Loose 3YO who is overdue for a win. Has rushed home to beat all bar the winner in his last two around the mile journey on soft tracks, and stable has wisely reapplied the blinkers. In well enough at the weights under 57.5kg, and can be ridden a touch closer from a nice draw 14 days between runs.
DANGERS: 2. *Stay Wealthy; 3. *How Do You Sleep
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: LOOSE LOVE to WIN & Box Exacta: 2,3,4
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R1 1. TEXERRO** Expect: $3.65 - $3.85; My Early Rating: $2.27
R7 4. DEVIL'S TRIANGLE** Expect: $3.00 - $3.25; My Early Rating: $2.10
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R6 1. CIRCULARITY* Expect: $4.75 - $5.00; My Early Rating: $3.65
R8 4. LOOSE LOVE** Expect: $5.00 - $5.25; My Early Rating: $3.35
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R8: Box Exacta: 2,3,4