Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 14 March 2022
*RACE 1 @ 1.08pm TURF CARE AUSTRALIA MAIDEN HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. AMATHUBA (Richard & Michael Freedman/Mitchell Bell; 60kg & barrier 11; Expect: $3.85 - $4.10; My Early Rating: $2.54) Pride Of Dubai filly who has been working towards a win and can peak here 4th-up out to this distance. Should be able to slide across from the wider draw and either lead or sit just outside in what will only be a moderate pace
DANGERS: 4. *Reateros; 5. *Captain Vladimir; 10. *Nautical Miss
Likely Tempo: Fair
My Bet Plan: AMATHUBA to WIN
*RACE 2 @ 1.43pm NCG SERVICES BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. FANGELA (Keith Dryden/Ms Molly Bourke a3kg; 58.5kg & barrier 5; Expect: $4.00 - $4.50; My Early Rating: $2.45) Progressive 4YO by speed sire The Factor who is trained on the track and can go back to back 3rd-up, with winkers added. Worked home okay first-up in a deeper Highway at Randwick before finishing best to claim a handy BM 66 at Nowra. Building a nice record, and stays at the distance
DANGERS: 2. *Distillate; 7. **As You Were; 8. *Italian Informant
Likely Tempo: Good
My Bet Plan: FANGELA to WIN & Quinella: 3 and 7
*RACE 3 @ 2.18pm SENPOS CLASS 2 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. DEVIL'S TRIANGLE (Matthew Dale/Sam Clipperton; 57kg & barrier 3; Expect: $3.00 - $3.10; My Early Rating: $2.10) Smart & progressive 4YO local mare who still hasn't missed a place from six career starts, having won twice. Was a bit stiff not to win three runs back before making amends sweeping home in dominant fashion at Goulburn, and then finished strongly behind headline horse Shelby Sixtysix who had his back all the way in a Highway at Randwick, which of course now looks terrific form. Draws to get a lovely trail off speed and boasts a superior closing 400m sprint. The one to beat
DANGERS: 3. *Mascherata; 11. *Twig
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Bet Plan: DEVIL'S TRIANGLE to WIN & Quinella: 3 and 6
*RACE 4 @ 2.53pm TAB LICKETY SPLIT MAIDEN (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 9. I AM ME (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Tommy Berry; 56.5kg & barrier 5; Expect: $1.85 - $2.05; My Early Rating: $1.60) They'll fly along in this, but all being equal can't see this highly touted I Am Invincible metro filly being beaten first-up. Progressed to Listed grade in three runs last spring, and looks to have come on big via two progressive trials, bolting in the latest by nearly eight lengths. Should park just off the speed and be too strong late
DANGERS: 13. Why Doubt*
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Bet Plan: I AM ME to WIN & Quinella: 9 and 13
*RACE 5 @ 3.30pm OPC IT CLASS 1 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. FOURMADEC (Matthew Dale/Tommy Berry; 56kg & barrier 11; Expect: $4.50 - $4.65; My Early Rating: $3.00) Strong race for this class. Got plenty of time for this 4YO Kermadec mare trained on the track who shapes well here 3rd-up over a peak distance. Kept finding after a tough run in similar grade on Canberra Mile day, and the winner who had a much softer run has since won again in commanding fashion. Looks well weighted just 1kg over the limit, & top Sydney hoop has been booked
DANGERS: 1. *Champions League; 2. **Short Shorts; 3. *Another Alibi
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My Bet Plan: FOURMADEC to WIN & Trifecta: 2,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4
*RACE 6 @ 4.10pm IRON JACK LISTED 3YO CANBERRA GUINEAS (1400m) - Set Weights + Pen's; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. CAPE BRETON (Chris Waller/James McDonald; 57kg & barrier 9; Expect: $7.00 - $8.00; My EarlyRating: $4.95) Testing & open edition this year headed by this still underrated Vancouver gelding who returned with a fighting off-speed win in metro BM 72 grade on the Kensington track to take his winning strike rate to 50 percent from six starts. Stepped up in trip & won 2nd-up last time, and has been kept ticking over for this via a trial win. Over the odds
DANGERS: 1. *Silent Impact; 2. *Military Expert; 6. *Kelvedon Road; *13. Sweet Ruby
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My Bet Plan: CAPE BRETON Each Way & Box Exacta: 1,2,3
*RACE 7 @ 4.55pm TAB QUALITY LISTED CANBERRA CUP (2000m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Weights Raised 1.5kg; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. TOOMUCHTOBEAR (Chris Waller/Tommy Berry; 55.5kg & barrier 10; expect: $5.00 - $5.50; My Early Rating: $3.45) Open feature Cup edition; but this high quality Press Statement 4YO may just have them at his mercy via the weights. Hasn't missed a place in four runs this prep, winning twice, including a deeper metro BM 88 when he stalked the speed as a hot favorite. Had nearly four weeks between runs before boxing on okay in the tougher Listed Parramatta Cup, and he looks beautifully placed on the raised limit weight with most of the field getting 2.5kg from the topweight
DANGERS: 3. *Parry Sound; 9. *Le Baol; 14. *Dadoozdart
Likely Tempo: Fair
My Bet Plan: TOOMUCHTOBEAR to WIN
*RACE 8 @ 5.35pm LONGPARK MEAT CO BENCHMARK 75 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 9. DEEL WITH ME (Bjorn Baker/Josh Parr; 57kg & barrier 7; Expect: $3.85 - $4.10; My Early Rating: $2.75) Strong finishing race, with plenty of chances. Keen on this progressive Dundeel 4YO who stays at the mile fifth-up behind a dominant BM 66 win at Mudgee charging home from worse than midfield. Steps back up in grade, but has had more than enough experience in similar company, and looks well treated back down to 57kg. Blinkers go and he will relish the long run home here
DANGERS: 3. Girls Are Ready; 11. Shameonus; 12. Temoin Chaud
Likely Tempo: Fair
My Bet Plan: DEEL WITH ME to WIN
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R2 3. FANGELA**
R4 9. I AM ME**
R7 6. TOOMUCHTOBEAR**
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R6 3. CAPE BRETON*
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R5: Trifecta: 2,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4