Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans - 13 March 2023
*RACE 1 @ 1.26pm OPC IT CLASS 1 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. BURGUNDY GIRL (Keith Dryden/Ms Alysha Collett; 55kg & barrier 5) -We start Cup day with a smaller but competitive field; and this 4YO home track mare by Cable Bay is ready to strike 3rd-up. Has worked home into the placings in 2 runs back; & looks beautifully placed over this trip now with a far superior rider taking over
DANGERS: 2. *All Business; 3. *Hello Jack; 4. **Belleistic Kids
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: BURGUNDY GIRL to WIN & Quinella 4 and 5
*RACE 2 @ 2.01pm TAB LICKETY SPLIT MAIDEN (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. NOVEMBER RHYTHM (Matthew Smith/Tyler Schiller a0kg; 59kg & barrier 7) -Now for the feature dash at set weights; and simply can't go past a lightly raced Warwick Farm-based 4YO by Dream Ahead who seemingly has this at his mercy 3rd-up. Kept chasing to the line in a more than handy provincial Midway before again right on the heels of the winner in a stronger race. Those provincial formlines augur well here in what is a very moderate line-up; & he'll relish getting back on the bigger track
DANGERS: 3. *Sennaprost; 7. *La Mia Via
Likely Tempo: Good
My BET PLAN: NOVEMBER RHYTHM to WIN & Quinella: 2 and 3
*RACE 3 @ 2.36pm TURFCARE AUSTRALIA MAIDEN HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. REGAL INHERITANCE (Gary Portelli/Tyler Schiller a0kg; 56.5kg & barrier 5) -Still riding with the maidens over further, and keen on another visitor from Warwick far, this 3YO Capitalist filly who is also primed to peak 3rd-up in her 2nd prep. Stuck on well in a good quality Fillies & Mares provincial maiden first-up, and the second horse then easily franked the form winning next start, before again chasing hard at Wyong after doing work from the wider gate. Drawn better here with a superior jockey back on, and looms as the one to beat
DANGERS: 1. *Boy Loves To Run; 3. *Kokoshnik; 7. *Breakaway Week
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: REGAL INHERITANCE to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 3.11pm HIT 104.7 CLASS 2 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. CABLE TIE (John Thompson/Keegan Latham; 58.5kg & barrier 4) -All aboard this emerging Randwick-based 3YO by Cable Bay who can bounce straight back into the winner's circle at his 3rd start. Dug in hard through soft ground to win on debut at the provincials before flattening out in the run home a fortnight ago after working from the gate. Finds a better spot on the map here a few lengths off the speed staying at the trip, and is far more comfortable back on a bigger track
DANGERS: 4. *In De Sun Iwilcome; 7. *Snappy Jim; 8. *Lethal Lady
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: CABLE TIE to WIN
*RACE 5 @ 3.51pm NVS PAVING & LANDSCAPING BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. AMAZING NICCI (Gary Portelli/Ms Alysha Collett; 60.5kg & barrier 7) -Naturally much will depend here on whether both early short-priced fancy Lonrioli and Chief Conductor run on Sunday. They rate clear of the field in that order; but suspect both could come out; so that would open it up nicely for this 4YO Warwick Farm mare by Nicconi deep into the current prep. Produced her best run in a while 3 weeks back charging home late in a BM 64 at Wyong to miss by a nose, and despite a weight hike, less depth to tackle here, and regular rider has followed her down to the capital
DANGERS: 7. *Beau Rock
Likely Tempo: Good
My BET PLAN: AMAZING NICCI Each Way (If Lonrioli is Scratched)
*RACE 6 @ 4.31pm IRON JACK LISTED 3YO CANBERRA GUINEAS (1400m) - Set Weights + Penalties; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. KIMBERLEY SECRETS (Nick Olive/Ms Kathy O'Hara; 56kg & barrier 4) -Now for the first of the features for the 3YOs; and this promising local filly by Wandjina is primed to take her record to five wins in just her 7th start, and having never missed a place. Hit the line late in a good quality provincial BM 68 two runs ago before being taken to the front & fighting on strong to claim a deeper Country C'ship Qualifier at Moruya. The 2kg weight rise under the set weight conditions here looks a little luxurious, and from a good draw where she can either sit on speed or settle just behind; it's strike time again
DANGERS: 1. **Wolverine; 8. *Smooth Sailing
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: KIMBERLEY SECRETS to WIN
*RACE 7 @ 5.16pm TAB LISTED QUALITY CANBERRA CUP (2000m) - Min Weight 54kg; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 1. ARAPAHO (Bjorn Baker/Rachel King; 59kg & barrier 4) -Out in distance we go for the headline race of the day, and there are several with a claim; although none bigger than this high class Warwick Farm 6YO by Lope De Vega who has twice worked home okay in Group 1 company this prep behind the best weight-for-age galloper in the country, and screaming now for the extra 400m. Did well at a big price to finish a bit over 4 lengths from Anamoe in the Group 1 Chipping Norton, and given he ran home into a place at Group 3 level over the Sydney spring before tackling the Melbourne Cup, with any sort of decent cover and toe up to the 600m, nothing will be hitting the line harder.
DANGERS: 2. *Explosive Jack; 3. **Sacramento; 6. *Athabascan
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: ARAPAHO to WIN & Trifecta: 1,3/1,2,3,6/1,2,3,6
*RACE 8 @ 5.53pm CANBERRA TIMES BENCHMARK 75 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 10. UNIQUE PRINCE (Matthew Dale/Jeff Penza; 55kg & barrier 10) -We close the card with a competitive battle over the mile; and very keen to ride home with this tough 5YO by Shaft peaking 3rd-up a month between runs; and staying on the limit weight. Worked home well 1st-up behind a smart frontrunner in a Country C'ship CL4 Preview before again getting home from midfield in an even deeper edition of that same series. Drawn to settle back and get to the outside here, and the extra 300m is pivotal
DANGERS: 4. *Ironbark Artie; 5. *Roccaforte; 7. *Twig (accepted for Sunday)
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My BET PLAN: UNIQUE PRINCE to WIN
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R2 2. NOVEMBER RHYTHM** Expect: $1.65 - $1.80; My Early Rating: $1.35
R3 4. REGAL INHERITANCE** Expect: $3.50 - $3.85; My Early Rating: $2.30
R6 2. KIMBERLEY SECRETS** Expect: $4.00 - $4.25; My Early Rating: $2.20
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R7 1. ARAPAHO** Expect: $4.25 - $4.60; My Early Rating: $2.58
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R7: Trifecta: 1,3/1,2,3,6/1,2,3,6
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail