Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans - 11 January 2023
*1st Race @ 1.28pm
*Track likely improving to near Good 4 & Rail out +3m:
*RACE 1 @ 1.28pm GRAPEVINE MORTGAGES BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 56kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. IZFALLINGDOWN (Tara & Philippe Vigouroux/Ms Olivia Chambers a3kg; 57kg & barrier 5) -We start over the mile on a track that will continue to firm up, and this underrated provincial-based 6YO mare can maintain a near 25 percent win rate dropping back in class. In the money in three of her last five, including a tough BM 58 win at Gosford early in the prep, and a close 3rd in a Heat of the Provincial Summer Series two starts back. Got a mile back in the PSS Final at Hawkesbury 27 days ago before making late ground, but destined to settle much closer here in a small field with far less depth, and gets in well at the weights this company after the jockey takes 3kg off
DANGERS: 2. **You Are King; 6. Iverson
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: IZFALLINGDOWN to WIN & Quinella: 2 and 5
*RACE 2 @ 2.03pm WOMEN IN RACING CANBERRA CLASS 2 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. LETHAL LADY (Norm Gardner/Ms Alysha Collett; 57.5kg & barrier 6) -Content to be aboard this ultra consistent and tough 3YO home track filly who hasn't missed a place in three runs this prep, starting with a dominant CL1 win here nearly seven weeks ago when she swept home from worse than midfield. Has run home well in two races since against better opposition, and with the early hot favorite seemingly priced too short, this girl looms over the odds getting back on the track where she has won twice from five outings. Will settle back off a good speed and come with a late rush
DANGERS: 2. **Alicia Roma; 4. *Mooshaka
Likely Tempo: Good
My BET PLAN: LETHAL LADY to WIN & Quinella: 2 and 3
*RACE 3 @ 2.41pm CIVIUM PROPERTY GROUP CLASS 1 HCP (1300m) - Mon Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. PATRIKA MIST (Joseph Ible/Ms Alysha Collett; 55.5kg & barrier 1) -More open affair here over further with a few chances. Like this improving 4YO provincial mare by Smart Missile 2nd-up. Didn't run on resuming here over the same trip in a similar-graded field 13 days ago, but that was her first outing in more than eight months, and her only previous win was impressive from well off the speed when 2nd-up. Looks well treated at the weights, and draws to settle back on the inside, and come with a telling late surge
DANGERS: 2. *How Do You Sleep; 3. *Noble Exception; 6. **Kwik Az Hell;
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: PATRIKA MIST to WIN & Quinella: 4 and 6
*RACE 4 @ 3.16pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 57kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. EMMA'S GIFT (Keith Dryden/Jack Martin; 59.5kg & barrier 5) -Back in distance for a small; but very competitive feature Federal sprint. Very keen to be aboard this locally-prepared 5YO mare who won two straight here in smart fashion up to this level before getting a mile back in tougher metro BM 72 grade, and running home fair. Much better suited back at home on the bigger and more spacious track; settles closer to a handy speed, and possesses a superior final 350m in this company. The one to beat!
DANGERS: 1. **Feel The Knight; 5. *Platara
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: EMMA'S GIFT to WIN & Quinella: 1 and 3
*RACE 5 @ 3.51pm GLEN MIA ACT SADDLERY MAIDEN PLATE (1200m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 10. VELLA MAGIC (Gratz Vella/Jess Taylor; 57kg & barrier 7) -Like this progressive 5YO home track mare by Magic Albert who finds a very winnable race 4th-up, coming from a little further off the speed. Failed to hit the line resuming here in a decent quality maiden, but her last two have been good finding the line from a few lengths back. Was $2.60 into $2.20 last time out, stays at the distance, and the drying track is a further plus
DANGERS: 3. *Bulleyes; 4. Fire And Gemstone; 7. *Breakaway Week;
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: VELLA MAGIC to WIN
*RACE 6 @ 4.26pm ECO-ROAD HERO ROAD STABILIZER CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Min Weight 5; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 10. XTRAREVZ (John Sargent/Jeff Penza; 55kg & barrier 2) -Out to the longer journey now, and it stacks up nicely for this still progressing and capable Randwick-based 3YO who almost has this at his mercy 4th-up. Hit the line late in two maiden runs here before charging home from well back in a much deeper metro maiden over a mile. By top Kiwi sire Xtravagant, and the extra 400m under the limit weight & from a soft trailing draw back in the field shapes ideally
DANGERS:4. *Merisi; 5. *Jessandi
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: XTRAREVZ to WIN
*RACE 7 @ 5.01pm HAPPY 40TH BIRTHDAY LUKE CARTON BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. BLOOD RIVER (Danielle Seib/Shaun Guymer; 58.5kg & barrier 6) -Good quality battle for this grade, with solid depth and may prove to be a handy formline. Keen on this underrated country 4YO by Super One who comes back from tougher Highway class at the right time 5th-up. Was a dominant winner here in Cl1 company after tracking the speed before being freshened via a winning trial to box on for a long way at Randwick 11 days ago. Stable has him going better than ever, and back 100m in distance on preferred firm ground is a recipe for success
DANGERS: 1. **I Am Mamwaazel; 3. *Rocstar Boy; 4. *Healthy Beauty
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: BLOOD RIVER to WIN & Trifecta: 1,6/1,3,4,6/1,3,4,6
*RACE 8 @ 5.36pm CAPITAL EA MAIDEN HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. MAJEEDIS (John Thompson/Jett Stanley a1.5kg; 54.5kg & barrier 8) -Most open race on the program is saved for last, with several chances. Settled on this improving and well weighted 4YO Randwick-based mare 3rd-up. Two even efforts this prep in deeper provincial company have been better than they look on paper, and she's ready to peak now getting over more ground. Can be ridden a little further back here from the wider gate, and being by dual Group 1 winner Dissident out of a Denman mare, she will appreciate getting on to a much bigger track
DANGERS: 3. *Mr Papera; 4. *Rise To It; 8. *Serene Nic; 11. *Bridget Wenlock
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: MAJEEDIS Each Way
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R3 4. PATRIKA MIST** Expect: $4.25 - $4.40; My Early Rating: $2.40
R5 10. VELLA MAGIC* Expect: $2.75 - $3.00; My Early Rating: $2.15
R6 10. XTRAREVZ*** Expect: $2.50 - $2.65; My Early Rating: $1.70
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R8 6. MAJEEDIS** Expect: $6.50 - $7.50; My Early Rating: $4.00
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R3: Quinella: 4 & 6
R4: Quinella: 1 and 3
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail