Cracking Canberra Preview by Neil Evans 1 November 2022
*1st Race @ 12.20pm
*Track likely Soft 7/Heavy 8 & Rail out +3m:
*RACE 1 @ 12.20pm CARPET ONE BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 56kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 8. SWEET HONESTY (Keith Dryden/Brendan Ward; 56kg & barrier 5) -we open up with a small field & tricky tactical battle over the mile. Like this 4YO local Nicconi mare returning home 3rd-up & down in weight tackling a tougher grade. Was right in the market at Nowra 16 days ago in a BM 58 before losing her compass wide out on the turn, but a senior rider goes on here and the bigger track and longer straight are key factors. Both her career wins from only seven outings have come on heavy ground
DANGERS: 1. *Island Bay Boy; 4. **Bon Frankie; 7. *Nicholas
Likely Tempo: Fair
My BET PLAN: SWEET HONESTY to WIN & Trifecta: 4,8/1,4,7,8/1,4,7,8
*RACE 2 @ 1.00pm CUSTOM PLUMBING BENCHMARK 60 HCP (2000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. DIAMOND CLASS (Len Hodgson/Richard Bensley; 59kg & barrier 7 -very competitive affair with several chances, but the step out over 400m further here is music to the ears of this 7YO Argentine-sired mare tackling her fifth start in just over seven weeks, and coming back in class. Was mixing her form before charging home from the back in a deeper BM 70 Federal over the mile last time. Naturally back up in weight for this class, but seemingly saves her best for home track. Was scratched from the opener to run in this
DANGERS: 1. **Sandastan; 4. *Casino Time; 5. *Kataway; 7. **Autissier
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: DIAMOND CLASS Each Way & Trifecta: 1,2,7/1,2,4,5,7/1,2,4,5,7
*RACE 3 @ 1.44pm DELTA BUILDING AUTOMATION CLASS 2 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 2. MISS HOFF (Matthew Smith/Nick Heywood; 59kg & barrier 9) -always been a fan of this talented, yet injury plagued 4YO sprinting mare. Resumed off a long break and a change of stable in a BM 60 here over 1000m, and her effort was very good going under by a long neck; & keep in mind the fourth-placed runner then won her next start. Typical of the stable, she's been given plenty of time, and has since trialled quietly on the synthetic. Is by powerhouse Group 1 winner Flying Artie and out of handy Qld race mare Beach Babe, & with any sort of luck and injury-free run she's capable of stringing wins together, and just maybe claim a Saturday metropolitan scalp
DANGERS: 1. *Bleue's Choice; 3. *Nalabelle; 4. *Redhair'n'freckles
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: MISS HOFF to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 2.24pm YES EVENTS CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 10. OFFSPRING (Keith Dryden/Billy Owen; 55.5kg & barrier 13) -out to the mile we go, and cannot go past this promising and still improving Zoustar filly who is trained on the track, and set to go back-to-back. Weaved through traffic in heavy ground before putting them away with ease here at just her 3rd start, and the 11-day turnaround suggests she's trained on beautifully. Bred to handle the ground, and gets in nicely carrying only half kilo more for the rise in grade. A good thing!
DANGERS: 1. *Mammoth Mountain
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: OFFSPRING to WIN & Quinella: 1 and 10
*RACE 5 @ 3.35pm EPC SOLAR MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 8. SEMANA (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Adrian Layt; 56kg & barrier 8) -keen at the value aboard this 3YO Winning Rupert filly making her debut in blinkers for a leading metropolitan stable. Was strong through the line winning a Warwick Farm trial two weeks ago, and she's bred to thrive in these conditions. The fact she was sent here rather than several other handy alternatives is a further pointer
DANGERS: 2. *Parrying; 3. **Invest In Love; 11. *Epaullo Creed
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: SEMANA Each Way & Quinella: 3 and 8
*RACE 6 @ 5.05pm CAPITAL TROPHIES & SPORTSWEAR CLASS 1 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. VAAROOM (Keith Dryden/Billy Owen; 58.5kg & barrier 7) -he's never been on the best of terms with punters, but this tough local 4YO lands the right race 2nd-up off a 5 month spell. Chased hard 1st-up here in a handy CL1, and bolted in his maiden here in heavy ground back in autumn when leading all the way. No trouble handling the conditions being by UK sire Zebedee and out of a Sebring mare, and leading local hoop goes on
DANGERS: 1. **You Are King; 2. *Lockup The Kittens; 6. **Lady Tabloid
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: VAAROOM to WIN & Box Exacta: 1,4,6
*RACE 7 @ 5.43pm SEEARS WORKWEAR MAIDEN PLATE (1300m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. I'M NOT LEAVING (Rob Potter/Richard Bensley; 59kg & barrier 13) -like this lightly raced home track 4YO by Trust In A Gust 3rd-up over 200m further. Missed by a whisker resuming in heavy ground here before ridden quiet and doing her best work late at Dubbo. Desperate for the longer journey now coming home, and races like he'll enjoy the wider alley and getting to the outside
DANGERS: 6. *Trooper Knuckle; 7. *Associate; 8. *Final Comment
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: I'M NOT LEAVING to WIN
*RACE 8 @ 6.21pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 3. HARD CORE (Joe Cleary/Ryan Bradley a4kg; 57kg & barrier 11) -another good strong Federal sprint with a few over the odds here in this ground. Keen on this tough All Too Hard 7YO going back-to-back 3rd-up in harder grade. Tracked the speed from a long way back at Nowra in BM 66 class before surging over the top late, & suited over 100m further & returning to a bigger track. Carries the same weight here after the claim, and again will go back from the wide draw, allowed to find his feet before working into the action from the 500m. Has never missed a place at this stage of his prep from six attempts
DANGERS: 5. *Secretively; 6. *Shaddy; 7. **Prophet's Pride
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: HARD CORE Each Way & Trifecta 3,7/3,5,6,7/3,5,6,7
*RACE 9 @ 6.52pm ELVIN GROUP BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim
TOP SELECTION: 3. ALMOST PERSUADED (Rob Potter/Ms Rochelle Wedrat-Kroezen a4kg; 56.5kg & barrier 6) -good depth here for one of the more open races to close the big card. Got plenty of time for this progressive & local 5YO Casino Prince mare who shoots for a 2nd consecutive win 4th-up. Hit the line hard into a place on the South Coast two starts back before showing his versatility by leading all the way in dominant fashion to claim a BM 58 at Goulburn under the same weight. Right at peak fitness, thrives in rain-affected going; and capable of winning deeper races
DANGERS: 2. *Fantini; 4. *Annual; 5. *Emma's Gift; 10. *Bel Suono; 13. *Power Puff
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: ALMOST PERSUADED Each Way
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R1 8. SWEET HONESTY* Expect: $3.25 - $3.60; My Early Rating: $2.35
R3 2. MISS HOFF** Expect: $2.50 - $2.75; My Early Rating: $1.95
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R7 5. I'M NOT LEAVING** Expect: $5.00 - $5.50; My Early Rating: $3.25
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R4: **QUINELLA: 1 & 10
R5: *QUINELLA: 3 & 8
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail