Cracking Canberra Preview 8 March 2021
*RACE 1 @ 1.10pm NCG SERVICES BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
We kick off Day 2 of the Carnival with the same track and rail conditions. Local four-year-old gelding 3. WASHINGTON TOWERS (Todd Smart/Blaike McDougall; 59.5kg) got much further back from a wide draw second-up in a deeper Highway, but came on strong late. That should have him peaking to strike back at home from an economical draw.
*MAIN DANGERS: Local filly 1. Delacour goes up in weight with a string of gear changes, but must be a threat from the inside draw. Found the pressure of a tougher Federal too much fourth-up, and better placed here. Home track mare 4. Nobody's Puppet finally broke through for an overdue win fourth-up in weaker company, although would need to do everything right under 59kg in a significantly better race.
Likely Tempo: Good
My Betting Attack: WASHINGTON TOWERS to WIN and Quinella: 1 & 3
*RACE 2 @ 1.50pm NORTH CANBERRA BEARS RLFC BENCHMARK 75 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Out to the mile in a race where two runners stand out. Hard to fathom why progressive Warwick Farm five-year-old 3. SILENT AGENDA (Joseph Pride/Regan Bayliss; 58.5kg) opened up well into each-way odds coming back from a dominant BM 72 metro win over further. Hard fit, and hasn't missed a place in his last five.
*MAIN DANGERS: Talented and lightly raced local mare 4. Exotic Deel is the obvious threat third-up in a suitable race. Got buried away well back in a strong Country C'ship qualifier at Goulburn and didn't come on after just missing first-up in the heavy at Canterbury. All four career wins from 12 starts have come on firm ground, and she relishes this journey. Progressive mare 7. Propose To Me may start on Sunday instead, but she's in this one too fifth-up from a handy trailing draw. Worked home late in that same Country qualifier, and carries only 1.5kg more. Home track mare 2. Rockarosa has had four runs back from a spell, and also did her best work late in that form reference Goulburn qualifier. Senior metro jockey goes on, but would still need to find a bit back up sharply in weight.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My Betting Attack: SILENT AGENDA to WIN and Quinella 3 & 4
*RACE 3 @ 2.30pm TURFCARE AUSTRALIA HCP MAIDEN HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Progressive three-year-old colt 1. PHEARSON (Matthew Dale/Tommy Berry; 60kg) gets all the ticks here. Missed narrowly in a handy maiden on debut before a huge effort to beat all bar the winner here after being caught wide. Break through time from a handy draw, and top metro jockey booked makes him a near good thing!
*MAIN DANGERS: Local four-year-old 2. Jack The Brumby is always the groomsman and not the groom. That said, his effort caught off the track from a wide gate at Moruya when they choose to sit back instead of lead was enormous, and I suspect up in trip again, they'll opt to ride quieter. Well bred filly 6. Zouflu disappointed running home as a well fancied favourite second-up here, but she can peak in fitness over a little more ground; while three-year-old 3. Rockover is the best of the rest.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: PHEARSON to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 3.05pm SENPOS CLASS 2 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Weights Raised 0.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Very keen on four-year-old Warwick Farm mare 1. BLAZING MAC (Joseph Pride/Regan Bayliss; 58kg) who didn't get much room or luck running on late resuming in a handy BM at Goulburn. Has plenty of scope for improvement up in distance from a good draw, and bolted in a CL1 only previous start at this track.
*MAIN DANGERS: Expecting a big fresh run from lightly raced filly 4. Hasty Duchess who has trialled strongly, but will need to overcome a testing draw. Gap to the rest, although if four-year-old mare 6. Underground Music goes here instead of Sunday she should be around the finish after sweeping home to land a CL1 here 14 days ago.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: BLAZING MAC Each Way
*RACE 5 @ 3.45pm TAB LICKETY SPLIT MAIDEN (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Big fan of this boots 'n' all dash, and if smart debutant filly 10. Glamour Runs Deep goes to the Sunday card, hard to see promising three-year-old colt 3. FORMEINAWAY (Mark Newnham/Ms Rachel King; 58.5kg) being stopped from a soft draw and getting back on firmer footing. Only narrowly missed from the trail in heavy ground on debut at the provincials, and will relish the long run home here.
*MAIN DANGERS: Obviously debutant filly 10. Glamour Runs Deep is the clear threat if she goes around here off her work at the trials. If not, watch the betting on three-year-old debutant 5. Mr Plucka who has progressed nicely in two metro trials.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: FORMEINAWAY to WIN
*RACE 6 @ 4.25pm LISTED IRON JACK CANBERRA GUINEAS (1400m) Set Weights + Penalties; 3YO's; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
Good quality field for the three-year-old feature headed by promising three-year-old colt 2. EQUATION (Annabel Neasham/Tommy Berry; 56kg) who has won both starts in only his second short prep. The latest was ultra impressive bursting through from off the speed in a metro BM 72, and races like the sharp step up in trip will be no concern, especially carrying 3.5kg less.
*MAIN DANGERS: Expecting 4. Kermanding to quickly go to the next level this prep coming back as a gelding with blinkers off. Progressed from an easy maiden win to claiming a metro BM 68 and capping a successful spring, and has been given two searching trials for this distance fresh. Lightly raced gelding 3. High Supremacy wasn't beaten a long way behind star Kiwi Aegon in a Group 2 first-up, and can come on lengths over a bit more ground and an obvious big drop in class. Must include progressive gelding 6. Never Never River who is shooting for four wins from his last five, the latest dominant all-the-way in a metro BM 68 carting 61kg. Gap to the rest!
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: EQUATION to WIN and Boxed TRI: 2,3,4,6
*RACE 7 @ 5.10pm LISTED TAB CANBERRA CUP (2000m) - Quality; Min Weight 54kg; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
The headline race is a tricky affair, with the entire field on the 54kg limit bar the topweight who concedes them all 4.5kg. Progressive four-year-old Randwick gelding 3. ENTENTE (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Tim Clark; 54kg) gets a serious 7kg weight drop after finishing well first-up in the Canberra Mile 16 days ago. Won a metro BM 88 and Port Macquarie Cup consecutively last spring, and has been set for this second-up. Only concern is how far back does he get from the outside gate.
*MAIN DANGERS: Melbourne five-year-old 9. Aussie Nugget is hard fit and a big threat carrying this light weight. Rushed home for a strong metro BM 78 win two runs back before working to the line behind high class Defibrillate who went around in Saturday's Group 1 Australian Cup. Tough five-year-old 7. Dadoozdart is very one-paced, but has stuck on okay in three runs this prep in and around Listed level. Keep safe at big odds 10. Kaapfever who was a dominant BM 78 winner at Randwick two starts back; while six-year-old 1. Hush Writer can run a race resuming over this journey off two progressive trials.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My Betting Attack: ENTENTE to WIN and Trifecta: 3,9/3,7,9/1,3,7,9,10
*RACE 8 @ 5.50pm OPC IT CLASS 1 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
We close a big two days with a handy field for this grade, and nice metropolitan three-year-old 1. IMPRESSIVE LASS (Clare Cunningham/Jason Collett; 58.5kg) can take the next step towards some bigger targets. Capped some strong runs early in the prep with a dominant maiden win at Wyong, and right at peak fitness moves up ideally to this distance.
*MAIN DANGERS: Local three-year-old filly 7. Fourmadec rubber-stamped her potential charging home to land a maiden at Wagga on debut when heavily backed, and draws to do little or no work tucked away around midfield. Under-rated four-year-old 5. Cracking Mo also draws to get plenty of cover, and will be strong late coming back in distance from a useful BM 58 run.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: IMPRESSIVE LASS to WIN & Quinella: 1 and 7
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R3 1. PHEARSON*** Expect: $2.50 - $2.75; My Early Rating: $1.80
R5 3. FORMEINAWAY** Expect: $2.50 - $2.65; My Early Rating: $1.85
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R4 1. BLAZING MAC* Expect: $5.50 - $6.50; My Early Rating: $3.95
R8 1. IMPRESSIVE LASS** Expect: $3.25 - $3.50; My Early Rating: $2.12
**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
Joe Pride*
Matthew Dale*
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:
Regan Bayliss*
Tommy Berry*