Cracking Canberra Preview 7 March 2021 by Neil Evans
*1st Race @ 1.20pm
Track expected Good 4 & Rail out +3m
*RACE 1 @ 1.20pm LANDHQ BENCHMARK 75 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Plenty of quality and many chances in the opener. Can't go past smart Warwick Farm four-year-old 4. QUIET RIOT (Bjorn Baker/Jason Collett; 57.5kg) who returns for his first run in 13 months off two progressive trials. Won on debut as a heavily backed favourite, and trusting he's back and ready to go.
*MAIN DANGERS: Local five-year-old mare 6. Gem Dealer also returns off a lengthy break, and two of her four career wins have come fresh. Given a quiet time at the trials, and expected to be hitting the line.Talented South Coast mare 3. Revitup Rednut has worked home nicely in her last two against deeper opposition, but is up sharply in weight, and will likely have to slide well back from an outside draw. Tough local five-year-old 1. Major Time has been super consistent all peep, charging home to win the BM 82 Xmas Flying at Moruya four runs back, but the handicapper hasn't missed here with 61.5kg. Home track mare 8. Onthetake produced her best run since last spring sailing home to win a handy BM 66 at Moruya. This is a fair bit tougher, but she's down 2.5kg and draws the inside; while don't dismiss lightly raced mare 9. Wilful Soul who steps up in grade and is naturally better on wetter tracks, but still has enough ability for the leading trainer/rider combination.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: QUIET RIOT to WIN & FIRST FOUR: 4/1,3,6,8,9/1,3,6,8,9/1,3,6,8,9
*RACE 2 @ 1.55pm SEPPELT CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights; 3YO's & Up; Apprentices Can Claim:
Never easy over this distance, with most of them offering ordinary strike rates. That said, South Coast five-year-old 2. LORD DESANIMAUX (Terry Robinson/Adrian Layt 59kg) has run a string of placings, and is ready to snap the "bridesmaid" tag at his 27th start. Has been hitting the line hard in similar races back around home before working through the line nicely in a stronger Highway at Randwick. Draws to get plenty of cover and can climb over them late.
*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive three-year-old 11. Lady Of Luxury jumps sharply up in trip after hitting the line to just miss in a useful provincial maiden. Was luckless the start before, and should run this trip right out down on the limit weight.Watch the betting on Randwick mare and ex-Victorian 4. Kristalove who resumed with a tidy front-running effort here, and much fitter now getting out in distance. Kembla four-year-old 1. Foxtrot Bravo is one of the more lightly raced & still with more to give. Has finished close-up in the last two after sweeping home to win his maiden at Wagga over the mile, and if he can slot in from the wide draw will prove hard to beat.
Likely Tempo: Fair
My Betting Attack: LORD DESANIMAUX to WIN & Quinella: 2 & 11
*RACE 3 @ 2.32pm CANPRINT COMMUNICATIONS BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
One of the more open and tougher races of the day. Got no doubt local four-year-old mare 3. PROPOSE TO ME (Matthew Dale/TBA) is the best horse in the race, but will obviously need to find early cover from the outside barrier. Won a CL2 at Wagga two runs back as a hot favourite before working home nicely in the Country C'ship qualifier at Goulburn behind one of the better gallopers in country NSW. Also accepted for a BM 75 on Monday!
*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive mare 10. Underground Music roared back to her best second-up charging home to beat a good CL1 field. Draws to get a soft run, and the leading jockey goes aboard. Tough local mare 1. Perfect Pitch will find this easier than a metro BM 72 when he failed to run on. Been threatening all prep in deeper company, but will need a good tempo and plenty of cover to get over the top of these carrying a big weight. Honest home track four-year-old 4. Zelago also comes out of a fair closing effort in that Country C'ship qualifier, and despite the weight rise, maps well to get the right sort of trail. Include in wider exotics six-year-old stallion 7. Mandalong Nicko; and local mare 8. Temoin Chaud who was an impressive first-up winner at Wagga.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: PROPOSE TO ME to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 3.12pm TAB FEDERAL RIHARNA THOMSON MEMORIAL MAIDEN HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Big field of maidens, with one on debut standing out. Deep Field three-year-old filly 7. GLAMOUR RUNS DEEP (Matthew Dale/Blaike McDougall; 56.5kg) is primed to start her career on the right note after two smart and ominous open class trials. Keep in mind, she's also accepted for the Lickety Split on Monday!
*MAIN DANGERS: Typically for a Keith Dryden-trained youngster, talented filly 8. Kermatin resumes without officially trialing. Showed enough in two runs here last spring, and top Sydney hoop comes down to ride. Watch the betting at big odds on local filly 6. Fighting Pleasure who debuts off a sound trial; while three-year-old 1. Spicy Restaurant drops back from a tough effort in Listed grade at Doomben, but has to overcome a wide draw.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BETTING ATTACK: GLAMOUR RUNS DEEP to WIN and Quinella: 7 & 8
*RACE 5 @ 3.50pm AFFINITY CONSTRUCTIONS AUSTRALIA QUALITY OPEN SPRINT (1000m) - Min Weight 54kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Terrific open sprint, with plenty of hopes. Very keen on high class Randwick five-year-old 5. BLACK MAGNUM (Mark Newnham/Robbie Dolan; 56kg) who held his ground resuming behind the smart Emanate in a stronger metro BM 94. Draws the inside barrier, normally holds form into his second-up run, and can pounce from just behind the speed.
*MAIN DANGERS: Home track six-year-old 7. Mossman Gorge is a distance specialist, with all but one of his six career wins from 28 coming over the five furlongs. Finished best to win a metro BM 72 last start, and even better suited on dryer ground, although wouldn't be diving into too short a price in this field. Speedy seven-year-old 1. Cradle Mountain is seemingly racing below his best, but also comes out of that same BM 94 as the top selection. Two runs back, though, was less than two lengths off the flying Written Beauty who goes around in a Group 2 at Randwick on Saturday. Ex-Hong Kong six-year-old 3. Flat Heaven is another one well beaten in that Emanate race, and draws well, but would still need to improve; while can't dismiss resuming four-year-old mare 6. Wayupinthesky although I suspect she'll need the run in this company.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: BLACK MAGNUM to WIN & Trifecta: 5,7/1,3,5,7/1,3,5,6,7
*RACE 6 @ 4.30pm LISTED SEEARS WORKWEAR NATIONAL SPRINT (1400m) - Quality; Min Weight 55kg; Weights Raised 1kg; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
Another strong edition of this Listed showdown, and again there could be any number in the finish. High class six-year-old Randwick gelding 2. BRAVE SONG (Peter & Paul Snowden/James McDonald; 57.5kg) has often let punters down, but has a big-finishing engine, and at the weights can break back into the winner' stall. Was unlucky not to win the Listed Chester Manifold at Flemington when forced to come through inferior inside ground before again strong late at Caulfield over this trip. Loves it dry, and drawn to get enough cover early before swinging out and charging home.
*MAIN DANGERS: Must be impressed by the progress of metropolitan four-year-old 7. Academy who has a 30 per cent win rate from 16 starts, and only missed a place six times. Beat two strong BM 78 fields to cap an emerging spring prep before spelling, and wasn't far off highly rated Tailleur first-up. Was only run down in the last stride three weeks back at metro BM 88 level, and carries 2.5kg less here. Tough six-year-old 5. Poetic Charmer wore down Academy third-up, and is certainly ready for this distance. Would prefer it a bit wetter, but still right in the mix under 55kg. Local five-year-old 3. Handle The Truth is super honest, but hasn't won for a while. Ran on late resuming in that BM 94 behind Emanate and Black Magnum who is a big chance in the race before, so we'll get a decent form line. Second-up record is very good, although he probably needs a soft track to beat these.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: BRAVE SONG Each Way and Box Trifecta: 2,3,5,7
*RACE 7 @ 5.10pm GROUP 3 JOHN McGRATH AUTO GROUP BLACK OPAL STAKES (1200m) - Set Weights + Penalties; 2YO's; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
The Group 3 highlight for the youngsters is an exciting affair, although it's taken a big turn with unbeaten local filly Pretty Woman choosing the Group 2 Reisling Stakes at Randwick on Saturday. But I loved the way Flying Artie colt 7. BOURBON FLYER (John Thompson/Hugh Bowman; 56kg) put his opposition to the sword from the front on debut at the Kensington track, and this is a lovely progressive next step carrying 1kg less.
*MAIN DANGERS: Wagga gelding 1. Rocket Tiger is the clear threat. Resumed with a top-notch and somewhat luckless closing run behind a smart one in the Group 2 Silver Slipper. That came after winning both starts impressively in spring, and the stable was quick to send her here instead of the Group 2 Todman after drawing the inside gate. Incredibly is yet to jump under $16.00! Improving Godolphin colt 4. Bacchanalia held off a promising one second-up at Canterbury, although a big task from the outside gate. Capitalist colt 5. Kalashnikov is best of the rest from a good draw.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: BOURBON FLYER Each Way & Box Exacta: 1,4,7
*RACE 8 @ 5.50pm PFD FOOD SERVICES CLASS 1 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Good competitive sprint to finish. Home track three-year-old filly 8. LONDON GAL (Matthew Dale/Blaike McDougall; 55kg) has good natural speed and can return for a second prep with a bang. Bolted in on debut at Corowa last spring, and gets in nicely here on the minimum weight. The one to beat!
*MAIN DANGERS: Goulburn four-year-old 4. To The Nines was disappointing first-up when jumping an odds-on fancy, but fitter now from a better draw, can bounce back. Watch the betting on improving mare 3. Shamus Dream third-up and back slightly in trip; while keep safe local filly 10. Crucial Witness who resumes without publicly trialling.
Likely Tempo: Good
My Betting Attack: LONDON GAL to WIN
**MY BEST EARLY BETS:
R4 7. GLAMOUR RUNS DEEP** Expect: $2.05 - $2.10; My Early Rating: $1.72
R8 8. LONDON GAL** Expect: $3.15 - $3.50; My Early Rating: $2.15
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R5 5. BLACK MAGNUM** Expect: $4.65 - $5.00; My Early Rating: $3.10
R6 2. BRAVE SONG** Expect: $6.00 - $6.50; My Early Rating: $3.80
**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:
BLACK OPAL DAY