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Cracking Canberra Preview 4 September 2020 by Neil Evans

*1st Race @ 12.40pm

 

*Track likely improving to near Soft 5 & Rail True so expecting on or just off the pace early before a late trend wider and from further back

 

*RACE 1 @ 12.40pm A.B.E. FIRE PROTECTION HCP (1300m) - Benchmark 60; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

We kick off a big day with a very competitive battle in what will be a test of tempo and tactics. Local 6YO mare 6. WILFUL SOUL (Brodie Loy; 58.5kg) has gone to a new level this prep for the Keith Dryden stable. Flew home to win her maiden here before sitting closer in a CL1 yet still rounded them up with ease. Back out in trip no concern with her versatility, and can settle well back off a reasonable speed, and again be produced late.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Promising home track 4YO mare 5. Temoin Chaud looks forward enough for her return off a controlled trial. Won back-to-back races in first prep, although would slightly prefer her with a run under the belt this time around. Local 7YO 1. Treasure Boss is weighted to his best under 61kg, but well placed fourth-up getting back over this longer journey after doing his best work late in a deeper sprint. Watch the betting on resuming local 8YO 2. Trying whose fresh record is only ordinary, but last time on this track thrashed a handy BM 65 field. Another mare trained on the track 9. Kapaonik hasn't won for a long while, but is slowly returning to her best. Made a searching run out wide in the heavy here last start before succumbing to a dominant winner, but will appreciate getting back on drier ground. Capable mare 7. Farthing Wood can mix her form, but likes being at home, and drawn to get good cover back in the field.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: WILFUL SOUL to WIN & FIRST FOUR: 5,6/1,2,5,6,7,9/1,2,5,6,7,9/1,2,5,6,7,9

 

*RACE 2 @ 1.15pm MOORE QUALITY HOME PLATE (2000m) - Class 1; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Out to the longer trip now, and keen on 4YO gelding 2. PERALTA (Blaike McDougall; 59kg) deep into this prep for the Clare Cunningham stable at Warwick Farm. Hard fit, and got home solidly in a deeper race behind Wild Sheila who was then strong to the line chasing in a metro BM 72 on Wednesday.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Consistent Kembla 4YO 1. Club Legend scored in the heavy here two runs back over this distance, and was then good to the line from further back at Moruya. Proven weight carrier, but a query getting back on firmer ground. Stablemate mare to top selection 3. Final Showdown has been freshened since a fair effort in a stronger race at Gosford; while include Goulburn 4YO 7. Olmetto third-up from the good gate if you're playing the wider exotics.

 

Likely Tempo: Moderate to Fair

My Betting Attack: PERALTA to WIN

 

*RACE 3 @ 1.50pm PROCUREMENT PROFESSIONALS PLATE (1400m) Maiden Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Back to the maidens, and this stacks up well for progressive 3YO Warwick Farm filly 8. ALL TOO RIO from the Richard Litt yard at only her second start. Was shuffled well back on debut at Newcastle before working clear to hit the line late, and the longer trip is ideal in a race with less depth.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: A little disappointed in local 5YO 1. Mohahna who loomed to win second-up here in the heavy, but didn't attack the line, and rises back up to 59kg. Expect sharp improvement from 4YO local mare 5. Rebel Lady back on drier ground, and blinkers coming off; while watch the betting on Hawkesbury 3YO 6. The Grundler who was slow to begin on debut at home and never figured, but stable is renowned for getting them to improve quickly.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: ALL TOO RIO to WIN

 

*RACE 4 @ 2.25pm M J BENTON REFINISHING HCP (1400m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Local 6YO gelding 8. COSTA CHIN CHIN (TBA) from the Rob Potter yard took 17 runs to land his maiden two runs back before working home nicely this grade at Nowra when in grossly inferior ground. Has been up for a while and hardly reliable, but draws to get to the outside, and is over the odds back at home on the bigger track.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Emerging 4YO Randwick mare 3. Frankly Savvy can go back-to-back after a dominant debut win here in heavy ground. Either leads comfortably from the inside draw, or sits right behind, and is bred to get over much longer. Warwick Farm mare 5. Liberty Fields careered away in the heavy at Goulburn to claim her maiden fourth-up, but that was a very thin race, and she has to come across from a wide gate. Not underestimating Goulburn mare 1. Proven Class first-up off a long break and quiet trial. Wasn't beaten far as a solid favourite last prep at Kembla when returning off a 10-month absence; while local 4YO 7. Brennaman resumes with no public trial, but his only career win so far came fresh over this distance.

 

Likely Tempo Moderate to Reasonable

My Betting Attack: COSTA CHIN CHIN Each Way & TRI/FIRST FOUR: 3,5,8/3,5,8/1,3,5,7,8/1,3,5,7,8

 

*RACE 5 @ 3.05pm PREMI-AIR HEATING AND COOLING SERVICES PLATE (1000m) - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Intriguing and very tricky sprint, with a few new ones on show. Liked the trial by one of them, 3YO Hinchinbrook filly 9. ELVEENA (Ms Winona Costin; 55kg) from the Waterhouse-Bott yard at Randwick. Hit a flat spot on the turn in heavy ground, but picked up nicely and was strong through the line under a good hold.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Goulburn 3YO 8. Sonny should have won on debut here in a handy maiden at big odds after being slow to begin and having no room in the straight when it counted. Watch the betting on resuming Warwick Farm filly 11. Last Eightyate who has had two trials, and the blinkers removed. Warwick Farm colt 6. Andreas re-loads with the blinkers going on after doing nothing on debut against metro 2YO company, and has trialled well enough; while expect a better run from resuming Queanbeyan mare 5. Mimesis with blinkers going on.

 

Likely Tempo: Good to Strong

My Betting Attack: ELVEENA to WIN

 

*RACE 6 @ 3.40pm EPC SOLAR HCP (1600m) - Benchmark 65; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

A few chances in this one over the mile. Big fan of improving Randwick 4YO 4. HOLY SUNDAY (Jeff Penza; 59.5kg) from the John Sargent stable who is right at his peak fourth-up. Stormed home to just miss at Scone two runs back before ridden a little closer and finishing too strong at the same track. Backing up quickly which is a good sign, and he'll settle back and love the run home.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive local 4YO 3. Pecuniary Interest looks well placed over this trip second-up. Got home nicely resuming in heavy ground behind a promising galloper after being slow to begin, and is a winner up to 2000m. The winner of that race, 4YO 6. Shenandoah was dominant on the wet track here after being heavily backed, and will sit up on the speed again. South Coast 6YO 2. Garros comes back in trip and grade from a dominant win here in heavy ground, although up 5kg and firmer footing make this a tough task.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: HOLY SUNDAY to WIN & TRI: 3,4,6/2,3,4,6/2,3,4,6

 

*RACE 7 @ 4.15pm TAB FEDERAL (1000m) - Benchmark 70 Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Feature race of the day over the sprint trip is wide open, and there'll be no holding back. Talented home track 7YO gelding 4. POLAR STAR (Ms Heni Ede a2kg; 62.5kg) from the Olive stable has had a decent freshen-up since having little luck in a good BM 64 at Hawkesbury. Scraped home to win the Federal over this trip at previous start, and while he'd prefer it a little wetter, draws to park in a lovely trailing position.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Rival local mare 6. Calescent fought hard to win a BM 66 at Goulburn two runs back before boxing on for a long way in a handy field at Kembla. Will spear forward again, and give a big sight with the rider taking 3kg off. Lightly raced local 8YO 1. Whycatchim has been close-up in his last two, the latest finishing hard in the BM 82 Wagga Whiz, but looks almost weighted out of this even after the claim. Local 7YO 12. Our Finvarra has powered home from well back in his last couple, winning here two runs back, but this is a bit tougher and again will be forced a long way back from a wide barrier; while watch for 5YO mare 14. Onethetake getting home late down in weight.

 

Likely Tempo: Strong

My Betting Attack: POLAR STAR Each Way & TRI: 1,4,6/1,4,6,12,14/1,4,6,12,14

 

*RACE 8 @ 4.55pm O'CONNOR COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION HCP (1200m) - Maiden; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

We close with the sprinting maidens, and I'm very forgiving of well-bred Warwick Farm colt 8. HYPNOSIS (Brodie Loy; 57kg) from the Bjorn Baker yard. Didn't live up to her short price on debut at Goulburn, but that was on a shifty Heavy 9, and much better placed on a drier surface over more ground.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Debutant Waterhouse-Bott 3YO Written Tycoon filly 11. Fortune Seeker was strong, winning the trial ahead of Elveena who goes around earlier so monitor that form reference closely. Expect improvement at second start from 4YO mare and stablemate to top selection 7. Hallies Comet who was only plain here on debut, but gets the blinkers on; while include both Warwick Farm  mare 10. Attestar and improving local 3YO 3. Lenny's Lad in the exotics.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My Betting Attack: HYPNOSIS to WIN

 

**My BEST EARLY BETS:

 

R2 2. PERALTA*

R3 8. ALL TOO RIO**

R6 4. HOLY SUNDAY**

 

**My BEST EARLY VALUE:

 

R7 4. POLAR STAR*

 

**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:

Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott*

Nick Olive*

 

**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:

Brodie Loy**

Jeff Penza*

Blaike McDougall*