Cracking Canberra Preview 3 November 2020 by Neil Evans
*Race 1 @ 12.23pm CUSTOM PLUMBING HCP (2000m) - Benchmark 60; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
We start a bumper Melbourne Cup day card over the staying journey. Keen at the value on 6YO Goulburn gelding 5. DELUDE (Tash Burleigh/Ms Amy McLucas a2kg; 55kg) who has been in and around the money all prep, and worked home strongly in his last couple. This is barely harder than the BM 58 grade he's been tackling and can peak here.
*MAIN DANGERS: Tough Warwick Farm 6YO 1. Appetizing should command a comfortable lead, and prove hard to gun down. Was no match here for a smart two runs back before just nailed late in a much deeper BM 65. Up in weight, but this is easier. Stablemate mare 3. Lady Kirkham (also accepted for R8) gets out to this trip for the first time, and draws to get a soft run just off the speed. Nowra 6YO 4. Bulwark defied his huge price hitting the line hard from well back at home fourth-up, although this is tougher.
Likely Tempo: Modest to Fair
My Betting Attack: Delude Each-Way & Box Trifecta: 1,3,4,5
*Race 2 @ 1.03pm ELVIN GROUP HCP (1000m) - Benchmark 60; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Back to the short course, and ex-Victorian 4YO 2. EQUASPECIAL (Brooke Somers/Brendan Ward; 61.5kg) can strike second-up after having little at his first run for new Hawkesbury stable in a stronger BM 66 at Scone. Trainer has tinkered with the gear, including a crucial near-side blinker for the first time, and the more the track dries, the better.
*MAIN DANGERS: Resuming Queanbeyan 5YO 1. Hard Core has the natural class fresh in this field, and normally comes to hand quickly despite not having publicly trialled. Draws to get a sweet run, although still faced with carting a big weight even after the claim. Include Hawkesbury 6YO 3. Charlie Chap who finished well here in a deeper race two runs back before no match for the speed of a potential Group class filly at home; while watch the betting on another former Victorian 6. Fountain Of Youth who resumes for a new Canberra stable.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: Equaspecial to Win and Quinella 1 & 2
*Race 3 @ 1.43pm CAPITAL TROPHIES & SPORTSWEAR HCP (1300m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Strong race for this grade. Progressive Randwick 3YO 1. AEROBATIC WARRIOR (John Sargent/Blaike McDougall; 59kg) is the one to beat at the comparative weights, and with blinkers on for the first time. Beat a good maiden field two runs back at Muswellbrook before just missing in an even deeper field. Draws to get a cosy run.
*MAIN DANGERS: Talented 4YO local mare 3. Wandonna finally landed her maiden destroying a weak field by more than seven lengths. Can progress further, and will come over from a wide draw and likely sit outside or just off the lead. Improving Goulburn 5YO 2. Azoustic has worked home okay in two runs back from a spell, although likely to be looking for more ground. Home track 6YO 4. Costa Chin China can run a big race resuming off a two month freshen-up; while Queanbeyan mare 5. Mimesis is clear best of the rest off her maiden win here second-up.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: Aerobatic Warrior to Win
*Race 4 @ 2.29pm SEEARS WORKWEAR PLATE (1300m) - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Very competitive maiden at set weights. Progressive Hawkesbury 4YO 1. DAKSHA (Brad Widdup/Brendan Ward; 59kg) just had too much to do resuming at Bathurst, finishing hard late as a well backed favourite. Draws to get good cover back in the field, and extra distance and bigger track are huge ticks. Was close-up in stronger provincial races in autumn.
*MAIN DANGERS: Goulburn 4YO 3. Namarari will appreciate the drop back in distance after boxing on gamely leading in consecutive runs at Moruya. Consistent and hard fit 3YO local filly 12. Dancin' Til Dawn is bursting to break through after doing her best work late in a handy maiden at Wagga as a rock solid favourite. Local 4YO 6. One Man Band (also accepted for Wed's transferred Goulburn Cup meeting) is well placed despite a rise in weight. Worked home late in a handy maiden here last start, and handles soft ground. Big market watch on home track mare 11. Shecago who was well supported working home late on debut at Dubbo. Has since trialled okay, and winkers go on; while keep safe Warwick Farm filly 13. Press Estate who debuts off two handy trials, and draws to get an economical run.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: Daksha to Win and First Four: 1,3,12/1,3,6,11,12/1,3,6,11,12,13/1,3,6,11,12,13
*Race 5 @ 4.23pm EPC SOLAR HCP (1000m) - Maiden; Min Weight 56.5kg; Weights Raised 1.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Very tricky sprint with plenty of chances, either on debut or resuming. Much touted 3YO 4. STOLTZ (Annabel Neasham/Ms Kayla Nisbet; 58kg) resumes for a new Warwick Farm stable as a gelding. Had two trials, and draws to get cover behind a good speed.
*MAIN DANGERS: Rival Warwick Farm filly 11. Samasay makes her long-awaited debut off some smart work at the trials, and will be hitting the line. Yet another filly from the 'Farm, 12. She'll Be Apples has good speed, and led for a long way on debut at Bathurst. Back in trip suits. Home track stablemate 3YO's, 1. A Real Wag and 8. Hayyu both make their debuts in blinkers off recent forward trials; while 3YO Farm filly 13. Winning Business was ridden back third-up at Hawkesbury, and hit the line impressively.
Likely Tempo: Strong
My Betting Attack: Stoltz to Win and First Four: 4,11,12/1,4,8,11,12,13/1,4,8,11,12,13/1,4,8,11,12,13
*Race 6 @ 5.27pm NCG SERVICES PLATE (1600m) - Class 1 ; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Back out to the mile we go, and improving 5YO local mare 9. RIVERSTOCK (Joseph Ible/Blaike McDougall; 57kg) can go back-to-back third-up. Exploded home to win her maiden at Albury in soft ground, and being by Tavistock, the longer trip and bigger track are natural plusses.
*MAIN DANGERS: Improving Nowra 6YO 1. Auburn Boy has been placed in four of his last five, and can roll forward and give another big sight. Goulburn mare 10. Zarafah is more likely to run at home on Wed, but will go back from a wide gate if she starts here, and be strong late. I'm forgiving of local mare 6. In My Wallet who went to the front at Albury, but didn't get through the ground. Blinkers come off, and better ridden off the speed from the inside draw. They've tried riding Cowra mare 5. Brunela every possible way this prep without success, although she's capable when ridden quieter, and nicely weighted after the claim.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My Betting Attack: Riverstock to Win
*Race 7 @ 6.03pm TAB FEDERAL (1300m) - Benchmark 70; Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Another strong feature, with plenty of hopes. As long as the track is no worse than Soft 6, local 7YO mare 9. ONS VIER (Joseph Ible/Patrick Scorse; 56.5kg) can charge over the top fifth-up. Surged home to beat all bar Mr Kylin two runs back at Goulburn before rattling home late in a BM 66 at Nowra. Will drift back from a wide gate, but this is the lightest weight she's carried all prep, and is ready to win.
*MAIN DANGERS: Tough front-running 6YO 7. Mr Kylin will likely run in a BM 66 on his home track at Goulburn where he's been dominant all the way in his last two. Draws well, and blinkers have been replaced by winkers. Local mare 8. Mookareena was very impressive sweeping home to win second-up in a BM 64 at Kembla, and she handles soft going. Queanbeyan mare 1. Girls Are Ready is a real heavy tracker surging home to win a Highway two runs back before running to her friendless market drift at Kembla. Will also go back from a wide barrier, but the more sun, the lesser her chance becomes. Tough home track 5YO 3. Royal Monarch rarely runs a bad one, and finished best to claim a BM 66 at Nowra. Right in the finish at his previous two Federal runs, but forced back up to 60kg.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: Ons Vier each way
*Race 8 @ 6.38pm LASER PLUMBING HCP (1600m) - Benchmark 65; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
We close out with a competitive contest over the mile. Improving Wyong 7YO 4. MY EMPIRE (Allan Denham/Brendan Ward; 58.5kg) steps up to a stronger field after a fast-finishing CL1 win at Queanbeyan. Will need to slot in from a wide draw, but has a handy record this track and proven weight-carrier.
*MAIN DANGERS: Warwick Farm 5YO 5. Austreet didn't do much resuming here in a similar race, but he's a second-up specialist having won two from three, and afforded a 3kg claim. Watch the betting on 5YO and ex-Qlder 6. Nicholas who resumes off a lengthy break for a new Canberra stable. Home track 5YO 8. Dip Me Lid has been disappointing this prep, and still probably looking for further, but draws a nice gate, and is starting to sneak down in the weights.
Likely Tempo: Fair
My Betting Attack: My Empire Each Way & Box Trifecta: 4,5,6,8
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R2 2. EQUASPECIAL*
R4 1. DAKSHA**
R6 9. RIVERSTOCK**
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R5 4. STOLTZ*
R7 9. ONS VIER*
**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
Joseph Ible*
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:
Brendan Ward**
Blaike McDougall**