Cracking Canberra Preview 27 November 2020 by Neil Evans
***CRACKING CANBERRA PREVIEW***
with NEIL EVANS
CORKHILL BROS PEGASUS CHARITY RACE DAY
FRIDAY Nov 27, 2020
Thoroughbred Park CANBERRA
Gates Open @ 11.30am
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PH: 02 6204 0000
*1st Race @ 1.04pm
*Track expected Good 4 and Rail out +7m:
*RACE 1 @ 1.04pm HUON HCP (1000m) - Maiden; Min Weight 56kg; 2YO's; Apprentices Can Claim:
A small field of two-year-old first starters gets us underway, and naturally the market will have a big say. Keen on Hinchinbrook-sired Randwick colt 2. VOLCANIC ROCK (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Lee Magorrian; 58kg) coming off an impressive trial win at home. Out of a mare by top class sprinter Strategic.
*MAIN DANGERS: Must include debutant Goulburn filly 6. Princess Spice who also won a recent trial, and draws an ideal gate. Warwick Farm colt 3. Wilsons Prom, by NZ champion Xtravagant, also debuts off a winning trial run in similar time as the top selection, and with blinkers on. Stable is flying at the moment. Randwick-based 5. Belle O'Ballee is next best off two controlled trials.
Likely Tempo: Good
My Betting Attack: Volcanic Rock to Win & Quinella 2 & 6
*RACE 2 @ 1.39pm MARCUS QUINLIVAN OAM MEMORIAL PLATE (1000m) - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Still over the short course at set weights, and Warwick Farm 3YO filly 8. PRINCESS OF MEYDAN (Matthew Smith/Brodie Loy; 55.5kg) can turn around a disappointing debut at Kembla when over-run in a deeper maiden. Her previous trial form was top-notch for this sort of race, and the trainer has made subtle gear changes.
*MAIN DANGERS: Warwick Farm filly 6. Can't Get Enough looks the immediate threat resuming for only her second start off some smart work at the trials, and draws to get a handy trail. Include in wider exotics Braidwood 4YO 3. River Mac who debuts off a handy trial at this track.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: Princess Of Meydan to Win & Quinella 6 & 8
*RACE 3 @ 2.14pm RIVERVIEW PROJECTS HCP (1000m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Plenty of speed and pressure up front here. Convinced local 4YO gelding 3. NUREMBURG CASTLE (Matthew Dale/Blaike McDougall; 59.5kg) has come back a stronger and more reliable galloper after failing to live up to his promise in that first prep. Hit the line strongly first-up in a handy CL1 at Gundagai, and much more at home on this bigger sweeping circuit, with blinkers on.
*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive 4YO 1. Cubman will be suited sitting back off a good speed on a big track after powering home to win his maiden first-up Hawkesbury. Only query is the sharp rise to 61kg, giving some speedy ones plenty of weight. Big watch on Warwick Farm filly 7. Ashra Jahre who resumes for a smart stable after two progressive trials; while home track mare 6. Stella Baia was a dominant all-the-way winner on debut at Gundagai, but will need plenty of tactical speed from the outside barrier.
Likely Tempo: Strong
My Betting Attack: Nuremburg Castle to Win & Trifecta: 1,2/1,2,6,7/1,2,6,7
*RACE 4 @ 2.49pm TREVOR BROGAN MEMORIAL HCP (1200m) - BenchMark 60; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
This looks an ideal second-up assignment for 5YO local mare 3. FUSCA (Joseph Ible/Ms Alysha Collett; 60kg) after working home nicely from midfield behind red-hot Wandonna in a stronger race. Better drawn away from the fence where she can pick up a trail and finish over the top.
*MAIN DANGERS: Rival local mare 6YO 4. Successful Day resumes off a six month break, with no public trial, but draws well, and is already a first-up winner. Doubt anything else can win, but 5YO stablemate 1. Acton Shale can improve sharply second-up from the inside gate; and 5YO mare 9. Rose Dawn will also relish more ground second-up.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: Fusca to Win & Quinella: 3 and 4
*RACE 5 @ 3.24pm JAMES MUNRO AO MEMORIAL HCP (2000m) - BenchMark 65; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Tricky tactical race over the staying journey. Improving local 5YO gelding 6. DIP ME LID (Keith Dryden/Blaike McDougall; 56.5kg) can strike fourth-up this prep getting out to the right trip. Was close up behind a good galloper over the mile here last start, and is well in at the weights only 1.5kg over the limit.
*MAIN DANGERS: Home track 5YO 5. Nicholas is by Camelot, and naturally can keep improving first time over this trip third-up. Warwick Farm 6YO 4. Appetizing struggles to win, but should find a comfortable lead, and gets a big weight drop after the claim. Warwick Farm 6YO 8. Doctor Manhattan can work home late getting back out to a more suitable distance.
Likely Tempo: Moderate
My Betting Attack: Dip Me Lid to Win and Box Exacta 4,5,6
*RACE 6 @ 4.04pm BID WILLIAMS MEMORIAL HCP (1300m) - Maiden; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Open maiden. Progressive 3YO Warwick Farm gelding 5. ALWAYS SURE (Clare Cunningham/Brodie Loy; 57.5kg) has bigger targets in mind down the track than this lot. Hit the line from well back on debut in a stronger maiden at Hawkesbury, and carries a half kilo less here.
*MAIN DANGERS: Randwick filly 11. Affiliate comes out of that same race also getting to the line late at bigg odds. That was his first run in five months, and will only improve over ground being by Pierro. Warwick Farm 4YO 4. Chateaux Park resumes off two trials, and has more than enough ability to figure fresh. Was never far away in deeper maidens last prep, and draws to be tucked away with cover a few lengths off the speed. Watch the betting on Randwick 3YO 7. Dom Tycoon who has worked home from the back okay in two runs to start his career, and trainer has changed up the gear, including the addition of blinkers.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: Always Sure to Win & Quinella: 5 and 11
*RACE 7 @ 4.44pm TAB FEDERAL (1400m) - Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Feature race of the day is always competitive, but augurs well for high class local 4YO 14. SCARLEO (Keith Dryden/Blaike McDougall; 55kg) coming back in distance, and seemingly thrown in under handicap conditions with only 55kg. Dashed up and looked the one in the Federal over a mile before the winner exploded over the top, but even better suited here, with a 66 percent winning strike rate at this trip.
*MAIN DANGERS: Local 7YO 6. Supreme Polarity was only a length away third-up in the Snake Gully Cup at Gundagai, and drawn to find a handy on-speed position over his pet distance. Stablemate 7YO to the top selection, 11. Balonne produced his biggest run in a long time charging home to win that BM 70 Federal in record time, but he's not renowned for stringing wins together. Has the obvious closing ability, but usually fires more at a mile or further. Rival local mare 12. Lolita Gold is screaming to win one, hitting the line impressively in her last two. Another who looks supremely well in at the weights, but will have to do it the tough way from the outside barrier. Expect a big run fresh from home track 6YO 4. Animalia who has had two trials, and drawn to do no work back in the field.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: Scarleo to win and Trifecta: 6,11,14/6,11,12,14/4,6,11,12,14
*RACE 8 @ 5.20pm ALLINSURE PLATE (1600m) - Class 1; Set Weights; 3YO's & Up; Apprentices Can Claim:
We close a strong card with another fairly even battle over the mile, and should be truly run. If any galloper around this grade can overcome the odds and the outside barrier in a big field it's promising Goulburn mare 6. POST FREE (Danny Williams/Blaike McDougall; 57kg) fourth-up out to the mile. Was a well-backed and dominant winner third-up at Gundagai, and looks headed for Highway company.
*MAIN DANGERS: Randwick 3YO 13. So United can bounce back at only his third start after compounding badly when leading first-up at Kembla. Drawn better here and down in weight. Improving Randwick 3YO 4. Nu Jiang hung on from the front to land his maiden at third start over the mile, and will try to repeat the dose from the same barrier, same weight and rider, but facing more depth here. Goulburn 5YO and ex-Victorian 3. Lamington Drive can peak reaching this trip third-up off a long break, but has been a prolific place-getter from 13 starts.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My Betting Attack: Post Free Each Way
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R2 8. PRINCESS OF MEYDAN** Expect: $3.45 - $3.60; My Early Rating: $2.20
R6 5. ALWAYS SURE* Expect: $4.00 - $4.10; My Early Rating: $2.75
R7 14. SCARLEO** Expect: $4.50 - $4.65; My Early Rating: $2.50
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R4 3. FUSCA*** Expect: $5.00 - $5.50; My Early Rating: $2.40
R6 4. CHATEAUX PARK* Expect: $8.50 - $9.00; My Early Rating: $5.00
R8 6. POST FREE*** Expect: $9.00 - $10.00; My Early Rating: $4.85
**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW: