Cracking Canberra Preview 23 April 2021 by Neil Evans
*RACE 1 @ 12.25pm GINNINDERRA CRICKET VALE NEVILLE LAYT 2YO HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
We start with the youngsters, and emerging Randwick filly 9. SILK TIE (John Thompson/Blaike McDougall; 55kg) did more than enough on debut here to suggest she can improve to win this carrying 1kg less.
*MAIN DANGERS: Plenty of them headed by the winner of that race, metro gelding 1. Danish Prince who gets another soft run in behind the speed; while Randwick-based Dundeel filly 7. Left Reeling debuts off a nice provincial trial win.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: SILK TIE to WIN
*RACE 2 @ 1.00pm GREENWOOD TILING MAIDEN PLATE (1400m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Impressive effort at second start from Rosehill filly 8. EMALEAH (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou/Jay Ford; 56.5kg) who covered plenty of ground in a good maiden at Goulburn, and still found the line strong. Much better drawn here, and can break through getting out to this distance.
*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive metro filly 6. Bella Violet hit the line well resuming in that same Goulburn maiden, and senior rider sticks. Improving filly 10. Toostar chased home a promising and well-bred youngster at Hawkesbury, and drew to get an economical run right behind the speed; while 2. Noble Alert should provide that tempo up front, and give a big sight back a little in grade, with a significant jockey change.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: EMALEAH to WIN and Box Exacta & Trifecta: 6,8,10
*RACE 3 @ 1.35pm PACE FARM EGGS MAIDEN HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Still with the maidens, and expecting the same combination as in the opening race to dominate again with improving So You Think filly 1. KIBOSH (John Thompson/Blaike McDougall; 59.5kg) after disappointing as a rock solid favourite resuming here. Out to this trip and jockey change are significant plusses in a race of moderate depth.
*MAIN DANGERS: By the same sire, local mare 6. Sojo is a big watch on debut off a smart winning trial. Watch the betting too on three-year-old 2. Green Leo resuming for a good stable off a handy trial; while including tough Moruya mare 13. Sifu who has attacked the line late in her last two here, and drops 2kg.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: KIBOSH to WIN
*RACE 4 @ 2.10pm HYPE PERFORMANCE CLASS 1 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Good race for this grade, with four last-start winners. One of them, three-year-old 3. MORGENSTERN (James Ponsonby/Richard Bensley; 58kg) comes out of a weaker race, but still impressive careering away from the close trail for a new stable. That was his first run in seven weeks, and still well on the rise, with blinkers coming off.
*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive mare 7. Rubaiya was a dominant maiden winner here off a long break, and despite rising in grade, looks well in at the weights carrying 1.5kg less. Tough three-year-old 2. Legal Challenge charged home to land his maiden here a fortnight back. Leading rider stays on, and is hard fit deep into the current prep. Include in wider exotics improving provincial filly 8. Divine Future; local four-year-old 4. Sisseck who can be hard to catch but gets yet another jockey change; and 6. Rock The Dream who won a weak maiden third-up but drew much further out here.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: MORGENSTERN to WIN
*RACE 5 @ 2.45pm PAGE BOTTLER CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Very keen on progressive Randwick filly 5. HIMIKO (John Thompson/Jay Ford; 55.5kg) third-up dropping significantly in grade. Got home late resuming here in a good quality CL1 before taking the big step to a Group 3 at Randwick and being easily swamped after leading. Drawn better with key gear changes, and looks thrown in at the weights carrying just 2kg more.
*MAIN DANGERS: Improving home track four-year-old 2. Mossy Oak is screaming out for this longer journey after flying home to win his maiden over a mile, and then again working home in similar grade here 13 days back. Include honest four-year-old 4. Olmeto hitting peak fitness fourth-up; while four-year-old 1. King Ratel was a shock winner here in similar grade, but is 23 days between runs and up sharply in weight.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My Betting Attack: HIMIKO to WIN and Quinella: 2 & 5
*RACE 6 @ 3.25pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Feature race of the day stacks up nicely for progressive four-year-old local mare 3. PROPOSE TO ME (Matthew Dale/Blaike McDougall; 60.5kg) shooting for three wins from her last five. Didn't get much luck or room getting home hard in a stronger race at Muswellbrook, and she's never missed a place on her home track.
*MAIN DANGERS: Similarly, rival home four-year-old 2. Zelago has an impressive strike rate here, and is well used to carting big weights forward in and around this grade and distance. Running out of excuses for local mare 6. Perfect Pitch who was only fair to the line last start here when well fancied, but trainer has gone for a 3kg claimer over a longer trip. Expect lightly raced five-year-old 11. Swagger to hit back from a better draw after a fair effort against the pattern on Albury Cup day.
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My Betting Attack: PROPOSE TO ME to WIN
*RACE 7 @ 4.05pm EY BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
A few chances in this one over the sprint trip headed by smart Warwick Farm filly 6. UNDENIABLE (Matthew Smith/Chad Lever; 60kg) who resumes in a suitable race off two progressive trials. Won fresh last prep in comfortable fashion.
*MAIN DANGERS: Expect speedy five-year-old 3. The Unknown Factor to come tearing across from a wider draw. Kept going strongly here second-up beating home all bar the winner in a deeper race, and gets his chance at peak third-up fitness. Tough local seven-year-old 5. Our Finvarra was well specked from a double figure price before running home late to land a similar race here a fortnight back, but weighted right to his best now under 61kg. Keep safe local mare 10. Scalded who rushed home late to trounce a CL2 field at the Sapphire Coast, but all her best form is on rain-affected ground.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: UNDENIABLE to WIN and Quinella: 3 & 6
*RACE 8 @ 4.40pm FREEDOM FACILITIES BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
We wrap it up over a mile, and very much like metropolitan three-year-old Kermadec filly 6. MANDALONG BEYOND (Gary Nickson/Andrew Banks; 58.5kg) who is drawn to get a handy trail off the speed. Finished nicely last start at Queanbeyan, and this is no stronger.
*MAIN DANGERS: Capable local four-year-old 2. Shenandoah is the obvious threat fourth-up from the inside barrier. Worked home okay last time in a deeper race, and blinkers on is a crucial gear change. Include six-year-old 4. Garros whose form around this region was solid until beaten a mile in a much stronger metro race. Draws to get a cosy run, and will be strong late coming back in journey.
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My Betting Attack: MANDALONG NICKO to WIN and Quinella: 2 & 6
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R4 3. MORGENSTERN*
R6 3. PROPOSE TO ME**
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R8 6. MANDALONG NICKO**
**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW: