Cracking Canberra Preview 22 January 2021 by Neil Evans
*RACE 1 @ 1.04pm WOMEN IN RACING HCP (2000m) - BenchMark 65; Min Weight 56kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Should be a two-horse war over the longer trip to get us underway headed by tough Goulburn five-year-old 2. LAMINGTON DRIVE (John Bateman/Blaike McDougall; 60kg) who was under pressure a fair way from home but wore down the leader in a CL1 here last start. Up a grade, but never missed a place over this trip and is the one to beat in the small field.
*MAIN DANGERS: Consistent six-year-old 5. Alpine Kid won this grade here two starts back beating Dip Me Lid who then turned the tables next start before confirming that formline winning again on Moruya Cup day. Draws the inside, with a handy weight advantage after the claim, and is the clear quinella runner. If you're playing wider exotics, include local four-year-old 3. Invincible Dash who is ready for this longer journey after hitting the line late in his last two.
Likely Tempo: Moderate:
My Betting Attack: LAMINGTON DRIVE to Win; Quinella: 2 and 5; Trifecta: 2,5/2,5/2,3,5
*RACE 2 @ 1.39pm SIREN BAR HCP (1000m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Back to the sprint trip in another small field. Improving Goulburn mare 2. TURFEZE (Scott Collings/Blaike McDougall; 57kg) can strike here third-up and drawn to trail the speed. Worked home nicely in a CL1 second-up at Nowra behind hot favourite Rocketing By who came in off a dominant trial and is well above average.
*MAIN DANGERS: Hawkesbury colt 1. Winds Of War let punters down resuming at Canterbury when very well backed, but he's since trialled in smart enough fashion, and expect him to bounce back in this company. Local mare 3. Mo More Chicken stuck on terrific from a wide gate this trip at Orange, and from a guaranteed better run in transit will be hitting the line.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
How to play it: TURFEZE to Win and Box Trifecta 1,2,3
*RACE 3 @ 2.14pm DAWSON HEATING & COOLING PLATE (1000m) - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Hawkesbury three-year-old filly 6. DREAMLINE (Garry White/Blaike McDougall; 55kg) should have enough early toe to cross and lead from the outside gate, and she'll take a power of running down. Comes back from a deeper metro maiden on heavy ground over 200m further, and she's been placed to win.
*MAIN DANGERS: Home track three-year-old first starter 2. Brothers Of Antrim looks ready off two progressive trials, and is bred to fly being by The Brothers War out of a Falvelon mare. Watch the betting on another local debutant filly 7. Mixed Up Factor who has trialled okay here.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: DREAMLINE to Win
*RACE 4 @ 2.49pm TERCEL ACT HCP (1400m) - BenchMark 60; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Good competitive battle, and most are well overdue for a win. Keen on four-year-old Gosford mare 1. DIVINE APPROACH (Tony Newing/Ms Madison Waters a3kg; 57.5kg) peaking third-up out to this distance and back on firmer footing. Hasn't won since late June, but has found more than his fair share of traffic problems. Chased home one of the smarter sprinters in country NSW last start at Nowra, and getting on to the bigger track with a 3kg claim is a lovely recipe.
*MAIN DANGERS: Resuming Randwick three-year-old 3. Bolson looks wound up for this off two progressive open class trials. Hasn't started since completely dropping out after leading here as a hot favourite in heavy ground late August. Leading country rider has been booked, and this is his first run on a dry track since debuting at Gosford a year ago. Improving six-year-old 2. Equal Balance has worked home from a long way back in two runs this prep, and can peak third-up over more ground dropping back from Highway grade.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: DIVINE APPROACH to Win
*RACE 5 @ 3.24pm SUSTAINABLE MACHINERY HCP (1300m) - Maiden; Min Weight 55.5kg; Weights Raised 0.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Progressive and lightly raced three-year-old local gelding 1. KIRKTON (Rob Potter/TBA; 58kg) has his first run at home at an ideal time. Improved into his second-up run finishing hard to narrowly miss the winner in a handy maiden at Wagga, and on the big spacious track should be able to slot in from a tricky draw.
*MAIN DANGERS: Home track filly 3. Pandering backs up quickly after ultra disappointing at Moruya when failed to run home. Less depth here, but must be a query at the trip. Local four-year-old mare 4. The Deepest Secret produced the best run of her career second-up at Wagga in only her second prep flashing home late at big odds, but the time was significantly slower than the top selection on the same day. Randwick three-year-old 2. Super Solar looks handily placed over more ground with blinkers on after closing off okay on debut at Bathurst.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: KIRKTON to Win
*RACE 6 @ 4.04pm JOHN McGRATH AUTO GROUP HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 56kg; Two-Year-Olds; Weights Raised 1kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Now an intriguing sprint for the two-year-olds, with all bar one on debut. Like Randwick colt 4. STATE CAPITAL (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Shaun Guymer; 58kg) who has been right up to the mark in two metro trials. A son of Magic Millions and Golden Slipper winner Capitalist, he looks ready to go from a handy draw.
*MAIN DANGERS: Include rival Randwick filly 8. Baden Road who also debuts off some nice work at the trials, and wears blinkers. Keep safe local first starter 5. Tia Karete, a son of dual Group 3 winner Sweynesse, who has trialled okay for a good juvenile stable. The only runner with race experience, local gelding 6. Loose Love has been only fair in two runs from off the speed, and would need to improve, but draws the inside with blinkers going on. Odyssey Moon filly 11. Lunar Ashes is clear best of the rest off a trial win at Nowra, and draws well.
Likely Tempo: Strong
My Betting Attack: STATE CAPITAL to Win and Trifecta: 4,8/4,5,6,8,11/4,5,6,8,11
*RACE 7 @ 4.44pm TAB FEDERAL (1200m) - BenchMark 70; Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Fairly even and strong line-up, but cannot go past progressive Moruya four-year-old 7. KATTEGAT (Natalie Jarvis/Shaun Guymer; 58kg) off a dominant CL3 win third-up at home. That came off two strong closing efforts in Highway grade, and looked to have plenty in the tank. Draws to get the right trail just off the speed, and this appears only marginally tougher.
*MAIN DANGERS: Big watch on Albury four-year-old 4. Mnementh who resumes from a soft draw. Has by-passed the trials, but is a proven weight carrier and has a smart fresh record. Talented local mare 5. Tejori has been frustrating this prep. Wasn't far away in Highway company two starts back before weakening after leading in a BM 80 at Wagga. Trainer has given her a month between runs, and won a recent trial, so expect her to bounce back. Tough five-year-old 1. Hard Core was very good finding the line in the Magic Millions Country Cup at the Gold Coast. Will find this easier, and big weight off-set by a 1.5kg claim. Local seven-year-old 2. Kanerupt can charge into the finish after a solid closing effort in the Summer Sprint at Wagga despite not getting much room in the straight, and also gets important weight relief.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: KATTEGAT to Win and Trifecta: 4,7/1,2,4,5,7/1,2,4,5,7
*RACE 8 @ 5.24pm WODEN BLUES FOOTBALL NETBALL CLUB PLATE (1600m) - Class 1; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
We close the meeting with a more than useful field for this class over the mile. Hawkesbury four-year-old mare 6. TIMELY SHADOW (Garry White/Blaike McDougall; 57kg) can bounce back after not handling the Heavy 9 rating in a stronger race at Warwick Farm. Drawn to get plenty of cover back in the field, and can be saved up for the last surge.
*MAIN DANGERS: Improving four-year-old 1. Clem Fandango has finished off well in his last two, and even better suited back on this bigger track where he ran down a smart one four starts ago. Gap to the rest headed by local filly 7. Poetic Power who has been steadily improved this prep; while six-year-old 2. Outahand is drawn wide, but looking for the mile.
Likely Tempo: Fair
My Betting Attack: TIMELY SHADOW to Win and Quinella: 1 & 6
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R7 7. KATTEGAT**
R8 6. TIMELY SHADOW**
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R2 2. TURFEZE*
R4 1. DIVINE APPROACH*
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R7: TRIFECTA* 4,7/1,2,4,5,7/1,2,4,5,7
R8: QUINELLA** 1 & 6
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:
Blaike McDougall***
Shaun Guymer*
**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
Garry White**