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Cracking Canberra Preview 19 February 2021 by Neil Evans

*1st Race @ 1.04pm

 

*Track expected Good 4/Soft 5 and Rail back to True:

 

*RACE 1 @ 1.04pm A C & R CATERING EQUIPMENT HCP (1300m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Good deep race for this class to get us rolling. Had to like the way Goulburn four-year-old 4. BOMBARDEO (John Bateman/Nick Heywood; 58kg) swept home from near last to claim his maiden here when heavily backed. Steps to the next level, the only concern is the drier track being bred to better advantage on a rain-affected surface.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: South Coast four-year-old 3. Tornac has come back stronger this prep. Dug deep to win his maiden two starts back beating Danzadel who won at Goulburn on Tuesday. Was edged out a nose last start at the Sapphire Coast, and draws to get a soft run. Progressive mare 7. Underground Music resumed off a year-long break with a brave effort here beating all bar the winner under the same weight; while watch for four-year-old 1. Vallauris getting home late fresh.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: BOMBARDEO to WIN

 

*RACE 2 @ 1.39pm KENNARDS HIRE HCP (1000m): - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Should be plenty of speed on here which can pave the way for local three-year-old Choisir filly 7. PEARL ELITE (Joseph Ible/Ms Alysha Collett; 56.5kg) to sit off them and finish best on debut. Liked the trial here, and stable has found an ideal opening assignment.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Tough three-year-old filly 4. Blackhill Kitty progressed from her debut run to only miss by a long neck at Goulburn, and will roll forward again. Improving home track mare 10. Serb Alert is right on the cusp of finally breaking through after hitting the line well in his last two at Queanbeyan and the Sapphire Coast. Include in exotics local three-year-olds 2. Grand Lusitano second-up and 3. Lenny's Lad resuming.

 

Likely Tempo: Strong

My Betting Attack: PEARL ELITE to WIN

 

*RACE 3 @ 2.14pm ALAN RUMMERY BOOKMAKER HCP (1000m) - BenchMark 60; Min weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Another competitive dash over the five furlongs that looks at the mercy of the Keith Dryden stable. Six-year-old mare 1. WILFUL SOUL (Keith Dryden/Ms Heni Ede a2kg; 60kg) is a smart sprinter who charged home first-up in heavy ground at the Sapphire Coast in a handy CL2. Has a terrific record here, and gets back in at the weights after the 2kg claim, but back on firm ground means isn't quite the good thing she would be in the wet.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Stablemate four-year-old 3. Shenandoah resumes without publicly trialling, but that's part and parcel of the yard. Normally takes a run before hitting his straps, and also prefers it wetter. Liked the way improving home four-year-old 4. Missile Magic ripped home late behind a smart one here third-up on a track where you had to be near the outside rail to win. Up sharply in weight, but gets a strong speed to chase. Big watch on resuming Randwick filly 6. Close To Me who has had two trials, and draws the inside; while the third of the stablemates, progressive mare 11. Manila Thriller was strong first-up off a long break getting home in the worst part of the track, and his second-up record is sound.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My Betting Attack: WILFUL SOUL to WIN

 

*RACE 4 @ 2.49pm CASINO CANBERRA CANBERRA GUINEAS PREVIEW (1400m) - BenchMark 65; Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; 3YO's; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Very little separates a few of these three-year-old, but Rosehill filly 2. HARMONIUM (Richard & Michael Freedman/Kathy O'Hara; 60kg) is on the rise with superior upside. Hit the line well in a good quality provincial BM 64 second-up before should have won at Canterbury in stronger grade when ran into a dead-end at the 150m. Drawn the inside, and will relish the long run home here.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Plenty of them headed by local filly 9. Molly Nails who swept past them effortlessly to win her maiden by a space second-up at Wagga. Steps quickly to the mile, but full of promise, and drawn to get a handy trail just off the speed. Promising Randwick filly 10. Nothinsweetaboutme burst on top the scene with a dominant maiden win here, and despite the steep rise in grade, she looks a real staying filly in the making by So You Think. Improving gelding 7. Solva found the line okay fourth-up in weaker class at Goulburn; while 8. Linden Tree comes out of that same race, and is on the next line carrying 3.5kg less.

 

Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid

My Betting Attack: HARMONIUM to WIN and Box Exacta 2,9,10

 

*RACE 5 @ 3.24pm TBC DISTRIBUTION PLATE (1300m) - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Open and potentially good form maiden with plenty of chances. Big fan of three-year-old Warwick Farm filly 14. ZOUFLU (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Nash Rawiller; 56.5kg) who fought on very well first-up in heavy ground at Canterbury off a long break. Gets a firmer track here, and top metro hoop makes the trip down to ride.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive home track colt 6. Phearson is the immediate threat after hitting the line on debut here behind an impressive winner. Despite drawing the outside barrier in a big field, still respecting capable local four-year-old 1. Jack The Brumby who comes out of that race, and can improve second-up down a little in weight and up in distance. Expect further improvement from local four-year-old 3. Mossy Oak fourth-up with the blinkers back on; while five-year-old mare 9. Spanish Pearl has been placed in all four runs at the provincials this prep, and overdue for this longer journey.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: ZOUFLU to WIN

 

*RACE 6 @ 4.04pm TAB FEDERAL NATIONAL SPRINT PREVIEW (1200m) - Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Good quality preview of the National Sprint Final, and there's a few who can stake a claim. Local eight-year-old back-maker 3. STEPHAN (Gratz Vella/Miss Heni Ede a2kg; 57.5kg) will appreciate returning to his much bigger home track after rattling home late in his last couple, including a strong effort in the BM 86 Bega Sprint. Drops 2kg after the claim.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Tough seven-year-old 4. Ruthless Agent hasn't won for a while, but sensing he's returning to his best finishing close-up in his last couple, and sneaking back down in the weights. Watch the market on resuming five-year-old 2. Commanderhaving his first run for a new Goulburn stable. Popular local mare 7. Mookareena also made up a tonne of ground from well back in the Bega Sprint, and also well treated at the weights with a leading country rider aboard. South Coast mare 5. Revitup Rednutwas hard in the market when finding the line okay in that same Bega feature, and blinkers have been removed.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: STEPHAN Each Way & Box FIRST FOUR: 2,3,4,5,7

 

*RACE 7 @ 4.44pm ETS REFRIGERATION & AIR CONDITIONING BLACK OPAL PREVIEW (1000m) - Set Weights; 2YO's; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Now the two-year-olds let fly in the Black Opal Preview, with most on debut. Promising local gelding 6. VAAROOM (Keith Dryden/Blaike McDougall; 57kg) is by the late UK-bred stallion Zebedee who won multiple Group races in the UK as a two-year-old, and this boy could evolve into one of the best sprinters from Canberra in the past 10 years. Missed the start and got a checkered passage on debut, but still made up good ground behind a smart winner, and will naturally improve further in the hands of the leading trainer.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Promising Randwick colt 2 Conglomerate is a threat at only his second start. Came off a smart trial win to be well specked at Listed level, but had no luck three wide with no cover, and weakened late. The Written Tycoon breed is flying everywhere at the moment. Well bred local filly 11. Pretty Woman won that race ahead of the top selection in dominant fashion after trailing the speed, and she's another exciting one by Written Tycoon. Watch the betting on metro colt and first starter 1. Bruckner who has trialled well enough; while included in exotics debutant Randwick filly 12. Queen Of Dubai who looked sharp winning a recent provincial trial.

 

Likely Tempo: Good to Strong

My Betting Attack: VAAROOM to WIN & Box Exacta: 2,6,11

 

*RACE 8 @ 5.24pm AFFINITY ELECTRICAL TECHNOLOGIES CANBERRA MILE (1600m) - Quality; Min Weight 54kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Fittingly, plenty of value chances in the feature. The step up in distance can do the trick for five-year-old mare 5. OUTBACK DIVA (Richard & Michael Freedman/Jean Van Overmeire; 54kg) who rattled home from well back third-up at Randwick behind a very smart one, and will relish the long run home here.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Lightly raced and smart five-year-old 3. Canasta is well treated at the weights, and should be right at his peak backing up quickly fourth-up. Gave nothing else a chance from the front in a metro BM 78 two runs back before weakening in stronger grade last Saturday. Small query running out a strong mile. Local mare 6. Sausedge has been sparingly raced since Xmas, after being luckless in three runs charging home where she clearly should have won two of them. Needs it firm. Consistent five-year-old 2. Soldier Of Love has a smart record over this trip, and a proven weight carrier; while watching the betting on resuming four-year-old stayer 1. Entente who has had two trials.

 

Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid

My Betting Attack: OUTBACK DIVA Each Way

 

*RACE 9 @ 6.00pm MANE LODGE PLATE (1600m) - Class 1; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

We close a big day over the mile again where there should be solid speed up front suiting four-year-old dry track mare 6. KIMMYLEE (Clare Cunningham/Blaike McDougall; 57kg) who can finish over them deep into her prep. Has hit the line impressively in her last two, and she's better off drawn past the middle where she can get to the outside.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Improving three-year-old filly 13. Mirror Model found the line well first-up behind a dominant winner, and afforded a serious drop in weight. Taking on some handy ones here, and not convinced the inside draw will do her any favours. Provincial colt 5. Prompt Prodigy sat on the speed and careered away to claim his maiden second-up. Draws to get a charmed run, but this is tougher. Local six-year-old 2. Arabisc will appreciate getting back on to a firmer surface fourth-up; while four-year-old stallion 3 Speedzone can also bounce back ridden quieter.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: KIMMYLEE to WIN

 

**My BEST EARLY BETS:

 

R3 1. WILFUL SOUL**

R4 2. HARMONIUM*

R7 6. VAAROOM*

 

**My BEST EARLY VALUE:

 

R8 5. OUTBACK DIVA*

R9 6. KIMMYLEE**

 

**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:

 

Keith Dryden**

Richard & Michael Freedman*

 

**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:

 

Blaike McDougall**

Ms Alysha Collett*

Ms Heni Ede*

*1st Race @ 1.04pm

 

*Track expected Good 4/Soft 5 and Rail back to True:

 

*RACE 1 @ 1.04pm A C & R CATERING EQUIPMENT HCP (1300m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Good deep race for this class to get us rolling. Had to like the way Goulburn four-year-old 4. BOMBARDEO (John Bateman/Nick Heywood; 58kg) swept home from near last to claim his maiden here when heavily backed. Steps to the next level, the only concern is the drier track being bred to better advantage on a rain-affected surface.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: South Coast four-year-old 3. Tornac has come back stronger this prep. Dug deep to win his maiden two starts back beating Danzadel who won at Goulburn on Tuesday. Was edged out a nose last start at the Sapphire Coast, and draws to get a soft run. Progressive mare 7. Underground Music resumed off a year-long break with a brave effort here beating all bar the winner under the same weight; while watch for four-year-old 1. Vallauris getting home late fresh.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: BOMBARDEO to WIN

 

*RACE 2 @ 1.39pm KENNARDS HIRE HCP (1000m): - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Should be plenty of speed on here which can pave the way for local three-year-old Choisir filly 7. PEARL ELITE (Joseph Ible/Ms Alysha Collett; 56.5kg) to sit off them and finish best on debut. Liked the trial here, and stable has found an ideal opening assignment.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Tough three-year-old filly 4. Blackhill Kitty progressed from her debut run to only miss by a long neck at Goulburn, and will roll forward again. Improving home track mare 10. Serb Alert is right on the cusp of finally breaking through after hitting the line well in his last two at Queanbeyan and the Sapphire Coast. Include in exotics local three-year-olds 2. Grand Lusitano second-up and 3. Lenny's Lad resuming.

 

Likely Tempo: Strong

My Betting Attack: PEARL ELITE to WIN

 

*RACE 3 @ 2.14pm ALAN RUMMERY BOOKMAKER HCP (1000m) - BenchMark 60; Min weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Another competitive dash over the five furlongs that looks at the mercy of the Keith Dryden stable. Six-year-old mare 1. WILFUL SOUL (Keith Dryden/Ms Heni Ede a2kg; 60kg) is a smart sprinter who charged home first-up in heavy ground at the Sapphire Coast in a handy CL2. Has a terrific record here, and gets back in at the weights after the 2kg claim, but back on firm ground means isn't quite the good thing she would be in the wet.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Stablemate four-year-old 3. Shenandoah resumes without publicly trialling, but that's part and parcel of the yard. Normally takes a run before hitting his straps, and also prefers it wetter. Liked the way improving home four-year-old 4. Missile Magic ripped home late behind a smart one here third-up on a track where you had to be near the outside rail to win. Up sharply in weight, but gets a strong speed to chase. Big watch on resuming Randwick filly 6. Close To Me who has had two trials, and draws the inside; while the third of the stablemates, progressive mare 11. Manila Thriller was strong first-up off a long break getting home in the worst part of the track, and his second-up record is sound.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My Betting Attack: WILFUL SOUL to WIN

 

*RACE 4 @ 2.49pm CASINO CANBERRA CANBERRA GUINEAS PREVIEW (1400m) - BenchMark 65; Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; 3YO's; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Very little separates a few of these three-year-old, but Rosehill filly 2. HARMONIUM (Richard & Michael Freedman/Kathy O'Hara; 60kg) is on the rise with superior upside. Hit the line well in a good quality provincial BM 64 second-up before should have won at Canterbury in stronger grade when ran into a dead-end at the 150m. Drawn the inside, and will relish the long run home here.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Plenty of them headed by local filly 9. Molly Nails who swept past them effortlessly to win her maiden by a space second-up at Wagga. Steps quickly to the mile, but full of promise, and drawn to get a handy trail just off the speed. Promising Randwick filly 10. Nothinsweetaboutme burst on top the scene with a dominant maiden win here, and despite the steep rise in grade, she looks a real staying filly in the making by So You Think. Improving gelding 7. Solva found the line okay fourth-up in weaker class at Goulburn; while 8. Linden Tree comes out of that same race, and is on the next line carrying 3.5kg less.

 

Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid

My Betting Attack: HARMONIUM to WIN and Box Exacta 2,9,10

 

*RACE 5 @ 3.24pm TBC DISTRIBUTION PLATE (1300m) - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Open and potentially good form maiden with plenty of chances. Big fan of three-year-old Warwick Farm filly 14. ZOUFLU (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Nash Rawiller; 56.5kg) who fought on very well first-up in heavy ground at Canterbury off a long break. Gets a firmer track here, and top metro hoop makes the trip down to ride.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive home track colt 6. Phearson is the immediate threat after hitting the line on debut here behind an impressive winner. Despite drawing the outside barrier in a big field, still respecting capable local four-year-old 1. Jack The Brumby who comes out of that race, and can improve second-up down a little in weight and up in distance. Expect further improvement from local four-year-old 3. Mossy Oak fourth-up with the blinkers back on; while five-year-old mare 9. Spanish Pearl has been placed in all four runs at the provincials this prep, and overdue for this longer journey.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: ZOUFLU to WIN

 

*RACE 6 @ 4.04pm TAB FEDERAL NATIONAL SPRINT PREVIEW (1200m) - Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Good quality preview of the National Sprint Final, and there's a few who can stake a claim. Local eight-year-old back-maker 3. STEPHAN (Gratz Vella/Miss Heni Ede a2kg; 57.5kg) will appreciate returning to his much bigger home track after rattling home late in his last couple, including a strong effort in the BM 86 Bega Sprint. Drops 2kg after the claim.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Tough seven-year-old 4. Ruthless Agent hasn't won for a while, but sensing he's returning to his best finishing close-up in his last couple, and sneaking back down in the weights. Watch the market on resuming five-year-old 2. Commanderhaving his first run for a new Goulburn stable. Popular local mare 7. Mookareena also made up a tonne of ground from well back in the Bega Sprint, and also well treated at the weights with a leading country rider aboard. South Coast mare 5. Revitup Rednutwas hard in the market when finding the line okay in that same Bega feature, and blinkers have been removed.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: STEPHAN Each Way & Box FIRST FOUR: 2,3,4,5,7

 

*RACE 7 @ 4.44pm ETS REFRIGERATION & AIR CONDITIONING BLACK OPAL PREVIEW (1000m) - Set Weights; 2YO's; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Now the two-year-olds let fly in the Black Opal Preview, with most on debut. Promising local gelding 6. VAAROOM (Keith Dryden/Blaike McDougall; 57kg) is by the late UK-bred stallion Zebedee who won multiple Group races in the UK as a two-year-old, and this boy could evolve into one of the best sprinters from Canberra in the past 10 years. Missed the start and got a checkered passage on debut, but still made up good ground behind a smart winner, and will naturally improve further in the hands of the leading trainer.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Promising Randwick colt 2 Conglomerate is a threat at only his second start. Came off a smart trial win to be well specked at Listed level, but had no luck three wide with no cover, and weakened late. The Written Tycoon breed is flying everywhere at the moment. Well bred local filly 11. Pretty Woman won that race ahead of the top selection in dominant fashion after trailing the speed, and she's another exciting one by Written Tycoon. Watch the betting on metro colt and first starter 1. Bruckner who has trialled well enough; while included in exotics debutant Randwick filly 12. Queen Of Dubai who looked sharp winning a recent provincial trial.

 

Likely Tempo: Good to Strong

My Betting Attack: VAAROOM to WIN & Box Exacta: 2,6,11

 

*RACE 8 @ 5.24pm AFFINITY ELECTRICAL TECHNOLOGIES CANBERRA MILE (1600m) - Quality; Min Weight 54kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Fittingly, plenty of value chances in the feature. The step up in distance can do the trick for five-year-old mare 5. OUTBACK DIVA (Richard & Michael Freedman/Jean Van Overmeire; 54kg) who rattled home from well back third-up at Randwick behind a very smart one, and will relish the long run home here.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Lightly raced and smart five-year-old 3. Canasta is well treated at the weights, and should be right at his peak backing up quickly fourth-up. Gave nothing else a chance from the front in a metro BM 78 two runs back before weakening in stronger grade last Saturday. Small query running out a strong mile. Local mare 6. Sausedge has been sparingly raced since Xmas, after being luckless in three runs charging home where she clearly should have won two of them. Needs it firm. Consistent five-year-old 2. Soldier Of Love has a smart record over this trip, and a proven weight carrier; while watching the betting on resuming four-year-old stayer 1. Entente who has had two trials.

 

Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid

My Betting Attack: OUTBACK DIVA Each Way

 

*RACE 9 @ 6.00pm MANE LODGE PLATE (1600m) - Class 1; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

We close a big day over the mile again where there should be solid speed up front suiting four-year-old dry track mare 6. KIMMYLEE (Clare Cunningham/Blaike McDougall; 57kg) who can finish over them deep into her prep. Has hit the line impressively in her last two, and she's better off drawn past the middle where she can get to the outside.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Improving three-year-old filly 13. Mirror Model found the line well first-up behind a dominant winner, and afforded a serious drop in weight. Taking on some handy ones here, and not convinced the inside draw will do her any favours. Provincial colt 5. Prompt Prodigy sat on the speed and careered away to claim his maiden second-up. Draws to get a charmed run, but this is tougher. Local six-year-old 2. Arabisc will appreciate getting back on to a firmer surface fourth-up; while four-year-old stallion 3 Speedzone can also bounce back ridden quieter.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: KIMMYLEE to WIN

 

**My BEST EARLY BETS:

 

R3 1. WILFUL SOUL**

R4 2. HARMONIUM*

R7 6. VAAROOM*

 

**My BEST EARLY VALUE:

 

R8 5. OUTBACK DIVA*

R9 6. KIMMYLEE**

 

**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:

 

Keith Dryden**

Richard & Michael Freedman*

 

**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:

 

Blaike McDougall**

Ms Alysha Collett*

Ms Heni Ede*