Cracking Canberra Preview 17 September 2021 by Neil Evans
****CRACKING CANBERRA PREVIEW****
with NEIL EVANS
*1st Race @ 12.45pm
Track improving to near Good 4 & Rail out +3m from 900m to 275m & True the Remainder:
*RACE 1 @ 12.45pm SOUTHERN AG MAIDEN PLATE (1200m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Wouldn't take much for a couple of first-starters to give this a shake in a wide open maiden on an improving track. One of them, four-year-old Criterion mare 5. AFTERSHOCK (Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones/Jordan Mallyon; 57kg) has been in work for a long time, and can start with a bang. Hasn't publicly trialled since earlier in the year, but this isn't strong and stable loves to get them ready. The betting will naturally have a big say!
*MAIN DANGERS: Another debutant, Rip Van Winkle four-year-old 2. Borsilav has trialled forward, although has to get over from a wide gate. Keep safe four-year-old 1. Aramis En Avant who has been mixing his runs in generally weaker races, but has early speed and draws well. Watch the betting on three-year-old 9. Poker Dice who resumes for only his second start after being way outclassed in the Group 3 Black Opal on debut in autumn. Include in wider exotics improving filly 10. Coupla Days who was well specked in the market at second start here nearly four weeks back; 4. Weight Willows from a soft gate; and ex-Victorian mare 11. Surprise Factor who resumes for a new local stable.
Likely Tempo: Good
My Betting Attack: AFTERSHOCK Each Way and First Four: 1,2,5/1,2,4,5,9,10,11/1,2,4,5,9,10,11/1,2,4,5,9,10,11
*RACE 2 @ 1.20pm HYGAIN MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Still with the maidens in another very tricky sprint over 200m shorter. Keen on improving local three-year-old 6. ACCRUE (Mike Petrovic/Michael Heagney; 56.5kg) who stuck on well behind a smart finishing winner (ignored by Preying) here three weeks back. Draws to get the right run, and it's breakthrough time at his fifth start.
*MAIN DANGERS: So You Think mare 4. Zhukovsky debuts with no public trials, but has done plenty of work. Include another one resuming, Nostradamus mare 8. Hayyu who draws a good gate with a claim; while both three-year-old filly 9. Harderthantherest; and four-year-old mare 12. Jesta Diva; are knock-out hopes at odds.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: ACCRUE Each Way & Quinella: 4 and 6
*RACE 3 @ 1.55pm JOHN McGRATH AUTO GROUP BENCHMARK 65 HCP (2000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Well out in distance, and two runners can fight this out. Progressive four-year-old 4. INVINCIBLE DASH (Nick Olive/Damon Budler a2kg; 58.5kg) is ready to win reaching an ideal journey deep into the prep. Worked home late in a much better race over the mile at Dubbo, and afforded a little weight relief after the claim.
*MAIN DANGERS: Tough mare 2. Nothing Compares should be able to roll to the top and control it. Has fought well in deeper battles since a smart CL3 win at Moruya, and if he can steal a soft mid-race sectional, will take plenty of running down when they come down the hill. Big gap to the rest headed by provincial eight-year-old 8. Eerised who drops in grade.
Likely Tempo: Fair
My Betting Attack: INVINCIBLE DASH to WIN & Quinella: 2 and 4
*RACE 4 @ 2.35pm JOSEPH JONES RACING CLASS 1 PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Moderate contest augurs well for four-year-old mare 11. MORE EXCITEMENT (Keith Dryden/Richard Bensley; 55.5kg) who can peak finally getting out to the mile. Just missed in a handy maiden here last time in heavy ground, and a firmer track and more senior rider on are race-winning ticks.
*MAIN DANGERS: Consistent five-year-old 2. Roman Candle is banging on the door, and gets back down a little in the weights after the claim. That said, he hardly has a record for attacking the line, and drawn off the track looks under the odds. Warwick Farm four-year-old 12. Cheeky Nugget has been close-up in his last couple, and shapes well with a 2kg claim, but may have a task slotting in for cover from the outside barrier. Keep safe honest mare 6. Poetic Power fourth-up on a firmer track.
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My Betting Attack: MORE EXCITEMENT Each Way
*RACE 5 @ 3.10pm TEB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 75 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Feature race of the day stacks up beautifully for four-year-old 7. PROPOSE A TOAST (Ron Weston & John Nisbet/Ms Kayla Nisbet; 55kg) coming off a narrow and brave Highway win at Kembla. Loves to roll forward, and is the best weighted runner here on the limit 55kg, especially back to 1200m on a track that should suit.
*MAIN DANGERS: Albury six-year-old 1. Jawaal is the clear threat second-up after an even effort in midweek metro company. Bound to improve, with concussion plates off for the first time, but 61.5kg against a few of these doesn't ignite great confidence. Must keep safe honest mare 3. Delacour who won a Federal on the synthetic at home two runs back before sticking on okay after leading behind a smart sprinter here last time. Included in exotics five-year-old 4. Cyborg who won two straight before working home late in a good BM 82 at Moruya.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: PROPOSE A TOAST to WIn & Quinella: 1 and 7
*RACE 6 @ 3.45pm TAB LONG MAY WE PLAY CLASS 1 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
On-speed four-year-old mare 1. SUPERTANKER (Luke Pepper/Damon Budler 2kg; 57.5kg) will take some catching from the inside gate with blinkers back on. Has been campaigning in deeper provincial races, and stuck on okay after leading for a long way at Hawkesbury, and this is a thin race.
*MAIN DANGERS: It's really only the wide barrier that prevents me putting talented three-year-old 5. Super Riff at least equal on top, if not clear. Hasn't started since finishing well down the track in the Black Opal Preview in February, but won on debut late last year, and comes to hand quickly. Included in exotics four-year-old 4. Lenny's Lad who won his maiden on the synthetic two runs back; and the "Bombala Bomber," 2. Big Steve who landed his maiden at Moruya before a fair effort in BM 58 grade.
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My Betting Attack: SUPERTANKER to WIN
*RACE 7 @ 4.25pm SEEARS WORKWEAR BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1460m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Consistent five-year-old mare 2. MORE SHOTS (Rob Potter/Damon Budler a2kg; 58kg) resumes for a good first-up stable. Mind you, this is a decent task over the distance against some handy opposition, but she comes to hand quickly, draws to find the right trail, and won three straight last prep in slightly weaker grades.
*MAIN DANGERS: Tough metro six-year-old 3. Skyray is poorly weighted here despite coming back in grade, but will get a soft run with cover back in the field. Keep safe local five-year-old 5. Subtly Spring who has finished hard to win two straight here, but taking on some better ones.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My Betting Attack: MORE SHOTS to WIN
*RACE 8 @ 5.05pm AFFINITY ELECTRICAL TECHNOLOGIES BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
We wrap a competitive card over the sprint trip. With a few rivals and a bit of natural pace coming out, talented Winning Rupert three-year-old filly 10. NEPHRADIVA (Nick Olive/Michael Travers; 55kg) has it by the throat, resuming over this distance. Was a dominant debut winner at Albury as a hot favourite in autumn before failing at Wagga. Given 18 weeks since, and will be primed.
*MAIN DANGERS: Honest five-year-old mare 11. Mo More Chicken draws wide, but the addition of blinkers is a big plus, and she's down in the weights off some handy form in deeper races. Tough eight-year-old and the "Bomber from Boorowa" 1. Revolver second-up; and resuming eight-year-old 3. Imitation Game; are your exotic players!
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: NEPHRADIVA to WIN
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R3 4. INVINCIBLE DASH* Expect: $3.50 - $3.75; My Early Rating: $2.54
R7 2. MORE SHOTS* Expect: $3.50 - $3.65; My Early Rating: $2.40
R8 10. NEPHRADIVA** Expect: $2.65 - $2.80; My Early Rating: $1.90
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R2 6. ACCRUE** Expect: $6.50 - $7.50; My Early Rating: $3.90
R4 11. MORE EXCITEMENT** Expect: $6.25 - $6.50; My Early Rating: $3.85
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R1: First Four: 1,2,5/1,2,4,5,9,10,11/1,2,4,5,9,10,11/1,2,4,5,9,10,11
R5: Quinella: 1 & 7