Cracking Canberra Preview 15 November 2020 by Neil Evans
*RACE 1 @ 1.10pm SHORES OF AVALON HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 56kg; 2YO's; Apprentices Can Claim:
Tricky opener for the 2YO's with the full field on debut. Going with beautifully bred Not A Single Doubt colt 1. BALLO (John O'Shea/Keagan Latham; 58kg) who has trialled well, and draws the inside gate.
*MAIN DANGERS: Rival Randwick filly 4. I Like Big Putts has had two trials for the Waterhouse-Bott yard, winning the latest at Gosford in smart fashion, and debuts in blinkers; while local Zoustar filly 6. Miss Ostend can figure off a solid trial.
Likely Tempo: Good
My Betting Attack: Ballo to Win
*RACE 2 @ 1.45pm HANDLE THE TRUTH ROAD TO THE JERICHO (3400m) - BM 85 Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
From one extreme to the other as a very small field goes over the marathon journey. Like Randwick 5YO 1. FRENZIED (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Christian Reith; 60kg) who was close-up in a metro BM 72 five weeks between runs, and is bred to carry the weight over this trip being by Melbourne Cup winner Americain.
*MAIN DANGERS: Albury 7YO 4. Thurmanator can run the quinella getting right out to this trip and down in weight after a mere sharpen-up over the mile at home. Two starts back was less than four lengths from Dambulla who then scored a dominant win at The Valley on Friday night.
Likely Tempo: Moderate
My Betting Attack: Frenzied to Win
*RACE 3 @ 2.20pm LAUREL OAK BLOODSTOCK HCP (1400m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Not much between a few of these. Home track 5YO 4. FRANCISCO PIZARO (Joseph Ible/Brock Ryan a0kg; 57.5kg) gets back to a more suitable distance fourth-up after working home okay here behind Exotic Deel who franked the form with an impressive win at Gundagai on Friday. Drawn to get ideal cover.
*MAIN DANGERS: Warwick Farm mare 2. Singing River didn't do much resuming at Gosford, but is better suited second-up over this trip, and the winner won again easily at Canterbury on Friday night. Randwick 4YO 1. The First Ring can improve sharply second-up after weakening at Muswellbrook under a big weight. Should find the front, and give a bold sight.
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My Betting Attack: Francisco Pizarro to Win and Box Exacta 1,2,4
*RACE 4 @ 2.55pm TUMBLE ON HCP (1400m) - Maiden; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Tough race, with a few chances, behind what should be a reasonable tempo. Capable Randwick 3YO 1. MUCH MUCH BETTER (John O'Shea/Keagan Latham; 60kg) has let punters down this prep being rolled as favourite in his last three. Admittedly that was against deeper opposition, and he's since been freshened via a nice trial. Trainer has replaced blinkers with winkers, crucially brought him back in distance, and scratched him from Kembla on Saturday to race here.
*MAIN DANGERS: Improving Warwick Farm mare 8. Indignant is hard-fit and has been placed in her last three. Searching for more ground now after finishing well in a handy maiden at Newcastle. Loved the way local 4YO mare 4. Jac The Great found the line at only her second start, although up in weight against some better ones, and drawn off the track, are big queries. Was scratched from Gundagai on Saturday to be saved for this. Include in exotics Warwick Farm first starter 6. Strixen who has been strong through the line in two trials.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: Much Much Better to Win & Trifecta: 1,8/1,4,6,8/1,4,6,8
*RACE 5 @ 3.30pm INTO THE NIGHT PLATE (2000m) - Class 1; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Out in distance again at set weights, and that augurs well for progressive local four-year-old 2. CLEM FANDANGO (Matthew Dale/Robbie Dolan; 59kg) who can go back-to-back ridden cold from the outside barrier. Powered home in a CL1 here over the mile beating a handy one who was heavily backed, and can round them up again.
*MAIN DANGERS: Warwick Farm 4YO 4. Kippax can peak third-up out to this journey after doing his best work late behind a smart one in a BM 58 at Scone. Another 4YO from the 'Farm 5. Microna won't know where he is drawn wide after jumping from the inside in his last three, careering away to win his maiden last start at Newcastle as a hot favourite. Bit tougher here, and would need to find the front easily enough to hold a couple of these off. Nowra 6YO 1. Bulwark charged home over the mile at huge odds in a thin race two back before fading in a BM 60 here stepping up to this trip.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My Betting Attack: Clem Fandango to Win
*RACE 6 @ 4.05pm TAB FEDERAL (1600m) - BenchMark 70; Hcp; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Feature race of the day is an absorbing tactical battle over the mile. Ex-Victorian 6YO 4. ROYAL THUNDER (Matthew Dale/Keagan Latham; 60kg) has had three improving runs for leading Canberra stable, and can strike fourth-up from the inside gate. Stuck on okay after leading behind a dominant winner here last start, and was competitive in deeper grades over further earlier in the year.
*MAIN DANGERS: Talented home 4YO 8. Scarleo will be tough to hold out from a handy draw which should see him park right behind the speed. Fought hard to win a stronger Highway at Rosehill two runs back before dropping out and pulling up with problems in a deeper Highway at Randwick. Tough local mare 5. Mookareena has never raced better, landing her last two including the Federal here on Melbourne Cup day, but rise in weight and distance from a more awkward draw are all queries. Albury 5YO 1. Bezos capped some useful form with a dominant front-running win at Wagga over this trip, and is clearly best of the rest.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: Royal Thunder Each Way and Trifecta: 4,5,8/1,4,5,8/1,4,5,8
*RACE 7 @ 4.40pm KEITH DRYDEN RACING HCP (1200m) - BenchMark 65; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Another open contest. Can't see any reason to get off smart 4YO local mare 9. WANDONNA (Keith Dryden/Brendan Ward; 58kg) despite a significant step up in grade. Has blown them away in consecutive Maiden and CL1 wins here, and will come into a reasonable draw after scratchings.
*MAIN DANGERS: If consistent Goulburn 6YO 3. My Kylin is rated well in front, he will take some catching coming back slightly in trip, and in well at the weights after rookie rider's full claim. Won two straight in dominant fashion at home before run down late here in a stronger Federal. Warwick Farm 6YO 1. Zidane can go close second-up after hitting the line late in a handy BM 66 at Goulburn. Expect a big fresh run from local 5YO 5. Acton Shale who hasn't publicly trialled, but draws the inside and has a smart fresh record. Local 7YO mare 6. Away She Goes is another who likes to drift well back and finish hard. Made up plenty of ground in the last Federal, although not well in at the weights.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: Wandonna to Win and Quinella 3 & 9
*RACE 8 @ 5.15 EXPRESS COURIER PLATE (1200m) - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
We close with the maidens, and keen on 3YO Warwick Farm Time for War filly and first starter 9. ALI'I NUI (Matthew Smith/Blaike McDougall; 55.5kg) who debuts in blinkers off two nice trials, and stable has a good record when they start them here.
*MAIN DANGERS: Randwick filly 8. Addison Reserve resumes for only her second start off a long break. Looked well forward in the second of two recent trials, and blinkers have been added. Preferred here to Kembla on Saturday. Watch the market on local 4YO debutant 2. Heydaze who has had two trials; while improving 3YO 15. Dynamic Impact can figure after finishing off well first-up in heavy ground at Kembla.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: Ali'i Nui to Win
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R1 1. BALLO**
R5 2. CLEM FANDANGO**
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R3 4. FRANCISCO PIZARO**
R7 9. WANDONNA**
R8 9. ALI'I NUI*
**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW: