Cracking Canberra Preview - 13 November 2022

*1st Race @ 1.00pm

*Track likely Soft 6/7 with rain forecast & Rail out +7m:

 

*RACE 1 @ 1.00pm WICHITA WARRIOR ROAD TO THE JERICHO BENCHMARK 85 HCP (3400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 1. TRUE MARVEL (Matthew Smith/Nick Heywood; 62kg & barrier 5) -We open up a big day with the feature Road To The Jericho marathon test on a track likely to slip back deep into soft range. Can't go past this Warwick Farm-based 7YO despite having to lump 62kg over the ultra long journey. Has been well outclassed in much tougher black type and high BM metro company, and this is a serious drop in grade 4th-up where they'll just amble along for most of the journey. Is bred to run out a long trip & this looms as the race to flick the switch on his prep

 

DANGERS: 2. *Monreal; 5. *Azzureous

 

Likely Tempo: Very Moderate

My BET PLAN: TRUE MARVEL to WIN

 

*RACE 2 @ 1.35pm FANGELA MAIDEN HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 1. LENSMAN (Donna Scott/Nick Heywood; 59kg & barrier 9) -Different kettle of fish here for the maidens, with a few strong chances. Keen, though, on this still improving Albury 4YO by The Factor who steps up an extra 200m further 2nd-up. Motored home from the back resuming in heavy ground at Wagga, and this is a nice next step given he has solid credentials up to the mile. Has been in and around the money all six career runs so far, and thrives on rain-affected ground. Was scratched from the next race to be saved for this

 

DANGERS: 5. *Final Comment; 8. *Summerset Girl

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My BET PLAN: LENSMAN to WIN & Box Exacta: 1,5,8

 

*RACE 3 @ 2.10pm SWEET HONESTY MAIDEN PLATE (1200m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 6. WINSTON HILLS (Matthew Smith/Nick Heywood; 56.5kg & barrier 6) -Really like this progressive 3YO metro-based son of Invader who can break through here at just his 2nd start. Tracked up nicey from midfield and finished well to be beaten only a long neck on debut at the provincials when well backed, and carries the same weight here, with blinkers being added. Bred to be a strong miler so doubt anything will be finishing harder on a track that's made for his natural profile

 

DANGERS: 3. *Bite Your Tongue; 4. *Bokeem; 5. *Bonus Tempus; 8. *Not That Easy; 11. **Good Girl

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My BET PLAN: WINSTON HILLS to WIN & First Four: 6,11/3,4,5,6,8,11/3,4,5,6,8,11/3,4,5,6,8,11

 

*RACE 4 @ 2.45pm PAUL MILLER CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 5. EL BRAVO (Ross McConville/Scott Pollard; 56.5kg & barrier 5) -Good competitive and open distance test for this grade at set weights. The record from 11 starts is far from flash for this still underrated Kembla-based 4YO who is primed to break through deep into his prep. Hit the line well from midfield in consecutive middle distance affairs with more depth than here before only one-paced from well back at home 22 days ago. Likes wet ground being by Wandjina, and well placed back in this company carrying the same weight as last run

 

DANGERS: 2. *Sea Crossing; 3. *Put To Shame; 9. *Jauhera; 11. *Uptown Boy

 

Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid

My BET PLAN: EL BRAVO Each Way

 

*RACE 5 @ 3.20pm LAUREL OAK BLOODSTOCK BENCHMARK 65 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 2. DELIGHTFUL DREAM (Barbara Joseph; Paul & Matt Jones/Quade Krogh; 61kg & barrier 10) -Plenty of chances in this one over the sprint trip, and most are well prepared for any dramatic downgrades. Like this more than handy 6YO by Dream Ahead who is trained on the track, and can strike 2nd-up despite rising in class. Powered home from the back here when resuming under a hefty 63kg finishing only a head from the winner in weaker grade. Bred to handle the conditions being by prolific wet track sire Dream Ahead, and like how the stable has chosen to stay at the five furlongs, with seemingly solid speed on up front

 

DANGERS: 1. *Hard Core (unlikely); 4. **Smuggler's Run; 5. *The Neon Knight; 6. *Fantini

 

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My BET PLAN: DELIGHTFUL DREAM to WIN & Trifecta: 2,4/1,2,4,5,6/1,2,4,5,6

 

*RACE 6 @ 3.55pm HANDLE THE TRUTH CLASS 1 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 2. INVASIVE (Annabel Neasham/Ms Ellen Hennessy a0kg; 58.5kg & barrier 10) -Cracking & deep race for this class. Got plenty of time for this promising and still improving Warwick Farm 3YO who is another one by Invader, and destined to win much better races. Found the line well from off the speed in two runs at the provincials before taken to the front and dominant as a clear-cut favourite in a handy maiden at Muswellbrook a fortnight ago. Seemingly handles all ground and conditions, and hitting a real fitness peak now 4th-up, this looks at his mercy

 

DANGERS: 1. *How Do You Sleep; 3. *Tavifern; 4. *I'm Not Leaving; 7. **Lady Tabloid (unlikely)

 

Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid

My BET PLAN: INVASIVE to WIN & Trifecta: 2,7/1,2,3,4,7/1,2,3,4,7

 

*RACE 7 @ 4.35pm TAB FEDERAL BENCHMARK 70 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 11. SKY DIAMONDS (Keith Dryden/Ms Alysha Collett; 58.5kg & barrier 16) -Up to the mile for the headline Federal, and typically there's a stack of chances in a deep edition. Like the value about this tough 6YO local mare by Deep Field getting back to up to her best distance deep into the prep. Tracked the speed before powering over the top to win here in thinner grade two starts ago; then pattern was against her on firm ground at Goulburn when failing to run home in a Class 3. Back home on more suitable rain-affected ground and drawn to stay out near the middle is the right recipe late in the day

 

DANGERS: 4. *Toulon Brook; 7. *Nieces And Nephews; 8. **Girls Are Ready; 14. **Sweet Honesty; *13 Lumber Dream

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My BET PLAN: SKY DIAMONDS Each Way and Box Exacta: 8,11,14

 

*RACE 8 @ 5.15pm KEITH DRYDEN RACING BENCHMARK 60 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 56kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

TOP SELECTION: 6. PACIFIC FORCE (Matthew Smith/Nick Heywood; 61kg & barrier 15) -We close the card with another open battle for the restricted sprinters. Like this Warwick Farm-based 6YO by global sprint conqueror Starspangledbanner 2nd-up behind a near month-long freshen up. Was given time via an easy trial after dropping out in a handy CL1 at Newcastle last month when slow to begin, and expect to see the best of him here ridden quieter, and especially if the tracks gets down to around Soft 7 or Heavy 8 range. Won his maiden at second start in autumn by nearly five lengths on rain-affected ground. Drawn to finish down the middle

 

DANGERS: 3. *Important Product; 4. *Blazing Sunrise; 7. *Emma's Gift; 8. *Vaaroom; 10. *Loafing

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My BET PLAN: PACIFIC FORCE to WIN

 

**My BEST EARLY BETS:

 

R2 1. LENSMAN**

R3 6. WINSTON HILLS**

R6 2. INVASIVE**

 

**My BEST EARLY VALUE:

 

R8 6. PACIFIC FORCE*

 

**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:

 

R5: Trifecta: 2,4/1,2,4,5,6/1,2,4,5,6

 

GOOD LUCK

@NeilEvansmail