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Cracking Canberra Preview 13 January 2021 by Neil Evans

*1st Race @ 1.20pm

 

*Track expected Good 4 and Rail True:

 

*RACE 1 @ 1.20pm ECO-ROAD HERO DUST-STOP PLATE (2000m) - Class 1; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

We start over the longer journey with what should be a two-horse war. US-bred 5YO 1. ANTILLES (Matthew Dale/John Kissick; 59kg) dropped back from much tougher metro opposition to almost steal it here in a CL1 over a mile, only run down late by a talented stayer. Always bred to be a real stayer, so step up to this distance looks ideal.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Goulburn 5YO 3. Lamington Drive is the obvious threat after finishing hard in a BM 66 at Wagga over this trip. Moruya 5YO 2. Cloud Nine will also appreciate the rise in distance; while the first four players should include 6YO 4. Ruler Of All who won a weaker race over this distance at Queanbeyan fourth-up.

 

Likely Tempo: Moderate

My Betting Attack: ANTILLES to Win and First Four: 1,3/1,3/2,4/2,4

 

*RACE 2 @ 1.55pm CAPITAL DOORWORKS HCP (1400m) - Class 1; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

More open affair here, and keen on home track 4YO gelding 1. Nuremberg Castle (Matthew Dale/Ms Heni Ede a2kg; 58.5kg) who has done all but win four runs this prep. Motored home to miss narrowly this grade before hitting the line well in Highway company. Gets an important 2kg claim, and ridden quietly can charge over the top of them..

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive 3YO local filly 6. Boho Chick should have won last start here when badly held up at a crucial stage. Still on the limit weight, and will also look to come with a winning rush. Was scratched from Albury on Tuesday to be saved for this. Queanbeyan 4YO 3. Jobkeeper capped some consistent form charging home to win his maiden here third-up, although taking on a few smarter ones. Be shocked if anything else wins, but include in exotics consistent 4YO stablemate to Nuremberg Castle, 2. Clem Fandango who finished hard into a place as a hot favourite in a thinner race at Wagga, and has been given five weeks between runs for the drop back in trip.

 

Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable

My Betting Attack: NUREMBERG CASTLE to Win and Quinella: 1 & 6

 

*RACE 3 @ 2.33pm GIBLEY GARDENING HCP (1400m) - Maiden; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Like another US-bred filly, Goulburn 3YO 10. REELCLASS (Jean Dubois/Brendan Ward; 55kg) second-up off a six week break. Found the line from a mile back resuming here, and while she's bred to get over much further, this trip suits having been kept on the fresher side.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Improving local filly 7. Fuchsia Rose has her first run for a leading local stable off a two month break. Did it tough in a stronger maiden at Kembla, and also has to slot in from a wide barrier, but has more than enough ability. Improving 3YO 3. Ambari has worked home okay in two maidens here, and sneaking down in the weights; while local filly 6. Foxy Rose also ran home well in that same maiden behind Jobkeeper at her second start.

 

Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid

My Betting Attack: REELCLASS to Win

 

*RACE 4 @ 3.08 TAB FEDERAL (1000m) - BenchMark 70 Hcp; Min Weight 56kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Feature race of the day over the short course brings together another strong group of sprinters. Beautifully bred local 4YO mare 8. AFFINITY BEYOND (Luke Pepper/Matthew Cahill; 58kg) can bounce straight back after wilting late in a tougher Highway at Randwick. Had previously won three straight here and at Wagga, showing terrific cruising speed in front, and is an absolute specialist at the trip. Kept ticking over with an easy trial win.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Local 5YO 1. Major Time has been kept fresher since charging home to win the BM 82 Xmas Flying at Moruya, and crucially the big weight has been negated by the booking of a 4kg-claiming rider. You know what you're in for with 4YO local mare 2. Shores Of Avalon who will come rushing over from a wide draw and probably sit outside or just off the top selection. Was close-up in a good sprint here last time, but even with a 2kg claim, not overly well treated under 60kg. South Coast 4YO 4. Rothenburg resumes off a handy trial, although has not a noted fresh performer. Held his own well in tougher metro company through last prep. Include in wider exotics both 7YOs 10. Our Finvarra who won here three starts back; and 12. Alfstar who drops back from Highway grade.

 

Likely Tempo: Strong

My Betting Attack: AFFINITY BEYOND to Win

 

*RACE 5 @ 3.44pm BEGA CUP 2 DAY CARNIVAL 30-31 JAN @ SAPPHIRE COAST HCP (1600m) - BenchMark 60; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Tricky and open battle over the mile. Progressive home-track 4YO 4. LOAFING (Keith Dryden/Blaike McDougall; 60kg) can strike second-up over more ground after hitting the line well resuming in a CL2 at Moruya. Naturally would prefer it wetter, but draws to get plenty of cover back in the field, and blinkers have been added.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Local 4YO 1. Invincible Dash steps up to the mile at the right time after working home late in his last three against deeper opposition, although the handicapper hasn't missed him with 62kg. Honest Goulburn 5YO 3. War Deck has been kept fresh since sailing down the middle to win a CL2 at Moruya over this trip, but a query up sharply in weight, and drawn the inside which goes against his racing pattern. Local 5YO 2. Nicholas is much better served coming back to the mile, with blinkers also going on; while include at big odds 7YO mare 5. Snowbrook who is suited over more ground. Gets in very well at the weights after a 4kg claim, and was preferred here to Albury on Tuesday.

 

Likely Tempo: Reasonable

My Betting Attack: LOAFING to Win and Quinella: 1 & 4

 

*RACE 6 @ 4.19pm ECO-ROAD HERO EARTHZYME HCP (1300m) - BenchMark 65; Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

Promising 4YO home track mare 5. PROPOSE TO ME (Matthew Dale/Blaike McDougall; 56.5kg) returned off a lengthy break charging home to win a handy CL1 here, although may have been a little flattered with the third horse desperately unlucky. Will again drift back from the outside gate, and look to finish over them. Leading jockey is unbeaten on her.

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Got plenty of time for improving Goulburn mare 3. Designer Dance who should be right at her peak five runs into the prep. Hit the line hard from well back in two straight BM 58's before even more impressive, finishing well in a stronger Highway. Another local mare 6. Honeysuckle Choice ran into a place in three consecutive country starts before finding the pressure a little too much in Highway company just before Xmas. Carries only 1kg more, and drawn to get plenty of cover around midfield. Stablemate 5YO 7. Eurosay looked home for all money here in a BM 60 before being edged out a nose. Consistent performer who draws well, and hasn't finished further back than fourth in five runs. Looks fairly well treated up only 2.5kg for this grade off that run. Local 4YO 2. Zelago resumes off a shorter spell, with no public trial, but normally comes to hand rapidly. Been battling in tougher grades, although does prefer softer ground.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: PROPOSE TO ME to Win and Trifecta: 3,5/3,5,6,7/3,5,6,7

 

*RACE 7 @ 4.54pm AINSLIE LAUNDRETTE PLATE (1200m) - Maiden; Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

 

We close the meeting with an open maiden at set weights. Moruya-based 4YO gelding 1. MARK'S KINGDOM (Matthew Dale/John Kissick; 59kg) is an intriguing runner resuming for his first outing since debuting here more than 10 months back. No official trials, but reportedly done plenty of work, and the trainer has rung the gear changes. Big value!

 

*MAIN DANGERS: Much will depend on whether improving local 3YO 7. The Burning can get across and find a spot from the extreme outside barrier. Also resumes with no public trial, but that's typical of a stable who is sure to have him ready. Include Braidwood 4YO 3. Rivermac who has hit the line from well back in two runs here and desperate for more ground; while resuming local mare 9. More Shots who trialled okay behind the flying Affinity Beyond; and local filly 13. Surekat debuting in winkers; are best of the rest.

 

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: MARK'S KINGDOM Each Way

 

**My BEST EARLY BETS:

 

R2 1. NUREMBURG CASTLE** Expect: $3.85 - $4.00; My Early Rating: $2.35

R3 10. REELCLASS** Expect: $3.00 - $3.15; My Early Rating: $2.20

R4 8. AFFINITY BEYOND* Expect: $2.75 - $3.00; My Early Rating: $2.10

 

**My BEST EARLY VALUE:

 

R5 4. LOAFING** Expect: $4.25 - $4.50; My Early Rating: $2.55

 

**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:

 

R5 **QUINELLA: 1 & 4

 

**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:

 

Matthew Dale***

Keith Dryden*

 

**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:

 

Blaike McDougall***

John Kissick*

 

GOOD LUCK

@NeilEvansmail

THOROUGHBRED PARK

#CapitalConnection

Next Meeting: Friday Jan 22, 2021