Cracking Canberra Black Opal Day Preview by Neil Evans
*RACE 1 @ 11.36am TAB FEDERAL RIHARNA THOMSON MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. WRITTEN BY LUCY (Rob Potter/Ashley Morgan; 56.5kg & barrier 3) -we kick off the big 10-race feature meeting with the maiden flyers over 5 furlongs on a surface that should start firm; but likely to drop well back into soft range later in the day. This shapes as a lovely starting point for a home track 3YO filly by sprint sire Written By on debut for a stable who loves to fire with the new ones. Bred to be strong at both ends of the race, and was given an easy time in a recent trial here. Draws to find a nice trail, with gear additions in play, and a leading NSW country jockey travels down to ride
DANGERS: 1. **Teylu; 2. *Let's Go Brandon; 5. *Noctua
Likely Tempo: Good
My BET PLAN: WRITTEN BY LUCY to WIN & Quinella: 1 and 4
*RACE 2 @ 12.07pm AIR CONDITIONING CANBERRA & DAIKIN AUSTRALIA CAMARENA HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. GUNDY GUY (Todd Smart/Ashley Morgan;55kg & barrier 3) -staying over the distance for the open graded sprinters; and in a battle of a few chances; settled clearly on this locally-trained & progressive 4YO by 2016 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist who is posed to strike 2nd-up. Finished hard here from an awkward draw in a BM 86 Federal16 days ago when resuming off a 22 week break; and he's unbeaten from 2 starts second-up. Drawn to sit a bit closer this time despite coming back a furlong in trip; and as long as he gets clear air from the 350m; nothing will be finishing stronger. Already has a 40 percent win record from 9 starts, and looms as the one to beat
DANGERS: 1. *Love Shuck; 2. *Major Time; 5. *Starlight Girl;
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: GUNDY GUY to WIN
*RACE 3 @ 12.42pm POLYTRACK BENCHMARK 75 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. BERNEN WIN (John Thompson/Tom Sherry; 55kg & barrier 4) -out to the mile we go for an open and tactical contest; and rating on top at the value is this emerging 3YO by Group 1 winner Shooting To Win stepping up in class 5th-up in a drawn out prep. Sparingly raced across some handy metropolitan and provincial maiden fields heading into the New Year before showing his worth by charging home late to be beaten under 2 lengths in a Super Maiden at Warwick Farm. Rubber-stamped that form by again sweeping home to easily win a country CL1 as a short-priced favourite 4 weeks back. This is a significant jump in grade; but he draws to get the right trail; and will relish the long and open run home here
DANGERS: 1. *Craving Magic; 2. **Adolphus; 4. *Lord Finland; 5. **Cheergal; 7. *Sturn Words; 9. *Heat Missile
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My BET PLAN: BERNEN WIN Each Way & First Four: 2,5,6/1,2,4,5,6,7,9/1,2,4,5,6,7,9/1,2,4,5,6,7,9
*RACE 4 @ 1.22pm INGLIS XTRA BONUS MAIDEN PLATE (1300m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. MARAIS (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou/Tommy Berry; 58.5kg & barrier 4) -back with the maiden sprinters; and it stacks up best for this emerging & consistent 3YO by Capitalist peaking 2nd-up. Has only been out of a place once in 8 starts, and found the line well when resuming in a good quality Rosehill maiden 11 days ago. There's a sense of timing over this trip on soft ground; and his chances were further boosted when one of the main market rivals was preferred at the Newcastle meeting on Friday. Drawn to find the right trail just off the speed
DANGERS: 2. *Darken; 3. **Jacob's Ladder; 4. **Karmardo; 6. *Viktor (unlikely)
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: MARAIS to WIN & Box Exacta: 3,4,5
*RACE 5 @ 1.57pm LISTED TOOHEYS 3YO CANBERRA GUINEAS (1400m) - Set Weights + Penalties; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 6. SNOW IN MAY (John O'Shea & Tom Charlton/Tyler Schiller; 54kg & barrier 6) -now the first of the features for the 3YOs over the mile in a tough & wide affair with some of the better fancies drawn wide. Despite plenty of chances on show; nothing looks better placed than this exciting & improving filly by superstar The Autumn Sun who is primed to strike 3nd-up coming back from Group 3 level. Took big strides last spring bouncing off a CL1 provincial win straight into Group 2 company where she finished only a length from the very smart Autumn Glow. Then chased home top class Lady Shenandoah into a place in the Group 1 Flight Stakes over a mile. Had excuses resuming in the Eskimo Prince at Randwick when left flat-footed coming through the clear slowest part of the track late; but has since trialled comfortably. Bred to handle soft ground and this suits
DANGERS: 1. *Shangri La Spring; 2. **French Ruler; 3. *Imposing Pier; 7. **Atelier
Likely Tempo: Reasonable to Solid
My BET PLAN: SNOW IN MAY to WIN & Box Exacta: 2,6,7
*RACE 6 @ 2.32pm GROUP 3 JOHN McGRATH AUTO GROUP 2YO BLACK OPAL STAKES (1200m) - Set Weights + Penalties; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 10. SANCTIFIED (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou/Tyler Schiller; 56kg & barrier 10) -now the Group 3 headline race for the 2YO sprinters; and in a high pressure race of many chances, settled on this smart & still underrated colt by Group 1 winner Super Seth who is ready to peak at his 3rd start at big odds. Was ridden too close on debut behind early Golden Slipper favourite Wodeton & failed to finish off; but showed his engine 3 weeks later in the Inglis Millenium at Randwick when ridden cold near the back & charging home to finish just behind the placegetters. Form from that race has already been very strong, and the winner has since scored smartly again. Will naturally drift back from a wide draw, but with plenty of pace on up front, watch for him getting to the outside past the 450m & rattling home
DANGERS: 1. *Aleppo Pine (also accepted for Randwick on Sat); 5. *Farcited; 7. *King Of Pop (accepted for Randwick); 8. *Nashville Jack; 11. **Steel Knight; 12. *Tropic
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: Sanctified Each Way & Steel Knight Each Way
*RACE 7 @ 3.12pm LISTED TAB CANBERRA CUP (2000m) - Min Weight 54kg; Quality; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 4. REDSTONE WELL (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald/Tom Sherry; 56.5kg & barrier 2) -back out to the staying trip for the 3rd of the black type features; and very keen to ride home aboard this high class 6YO by UK sire Cotai Glory peaking 2nd-up over 100m further. Won 2 of his last 4 runs last spring from on speed, including the Listed Tatt's Cup at Randwick over further before demolishing his rivals in the weaker Port Macquarie Cup over this distance. Stuck on well when resuming at Group 3 level behind an in-form stayer 2 weeks ago; and this is an ideal follow-up assignment from a low draw. Will take a power of beating
DANGERS: 1. *Palmetto; 2. *Gear Up; 8. **Alacance;
Likely Tempo: Reasonable
My BET PLAN: REDSTONE WELL to WIN
*RACE 8 @ 3.51pm LISTED SEEARS WORKWEAR NATIONAL SPRINT (1400m) - Min Weight 54kg; Quality; Apprentices Cannot Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 10. CLIFF HOUSE (Tim Donnelly/Tyler Schiller; 54kg & barrier 14) -the 4th & final feature is another high quality and intense battle; naturally with plenty of chances. Going very wide here with this ultra tough & improving 6YO by Starcraft who is tracking to peak big 2nd-up. Ran home hard under 63kg when resuming off an 18 week break behind a smart winner in a BM 86 Federal; and while this is a much tougher & deeper race; he drops a hefty 9kg on preferred rain-affected ground. The extra furlong is a natural plus too; and he boasts a 60 percent win rate from 5 starts when 2nd-up. Will again drift a long way back from a wide barrier; but with plenty of speed & pressure on from the half mile; watch for him getting to the outside & charging home late. Way over the odds
DANGERS: 1. *Coastwatch; 2. *Berkshire Shadow; 4. **Highlights; 5. **Wategos; 7. *Perfect Thought; 11. *Magnatear
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My BET PLAN: CLIFF HOUSE Each Way & First Four: 4,5,10/1,2,4,5,7,10,11/1,2,4,5,7,10,11/1,2,4,5,7,10,11
*RACE 9 @ 4.28pm SKY RACING 3YO & UP CLASS 1 PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 5. AUTUMN AROHA (Richard Litt/Chad Schofield; 57.5kg & barrier 6) -back out to a longer trip again for the lower class improvers at set weights; and confident this progressive 3YO by Group 1 powerhouse The Autumn Sun can go back-to-back & lower the colours on a hot favourite. Had been consistently running home into a place across some handy Super Maiden fields at the provincials before powering home to easily break through 3 weeks ago at Newcastle over 1880m. Had something in hand that day; and will relish the step up to this trip. Has to beat a promising one here; but well over the odds in this lineup
DANGERS: 6. ***Deal 'N' Dash; 7. *Fiftyfivechevy; 8. *Rumbling Night; 9. *Hampden
Likely Tempo: Fair to Reasonable
My BET PLAN: AUTUMN AROHA Each Way & First Four: 5,6/5,6,8/5,6,7,8,9/5,7,8,9
*RACE 10 @ 5.10pm PFD FOOD SERVICES CLASS 2 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
TOP SELECTION: 9. BRAZEN CRIME (Keith Dryden & Libby Snowden/Blaike McDougall; 56lg & barrier 4) -we close the big day with a competitive & wide sprint; with plenty of chances; and keen to come home aboard this lightly raced & progressive home track 3YO by Brazen Beau 2nd-up for only his 4th start. Showed good promise in 2 runs late last spring before having a checkered & tough run when resuming here in a CL1 over 1200m. Drops 2kg from that luckless effort; and over 100m further; just needs a clear crack at them over the final 350m
DANGERS: 1. **Rockola; 4. **Yabby Pump; 6. *Dashing Rupert; 10. *Dupli Kate
Likely Tempo: Solid
My BET PLAN: BRAZEN CRIME to WIN & Box Exacta: 1,4,9
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R1 4. WRITTEN BY LUCY Approx Early Market: $3.25 - $3.40; My Rating: $2.05
R2 6. GUNDY GUY Approx Early Market: $3.00 - $3.25; My Rating: $2.10
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R7 4. REDSTONE WELL Approx Early Market: $5.00 - $6.00; My Rating: $3.00
R10 9. BRAZEN CRIME Approx Early Market: $6.00 - $7.00; My Rating: $3.65
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R1 QUINELLA: 1 & 4
R4 Box Exacta: 3,4,5
R10 Box Exacta: 1,4,9